NA

NCR Atleos Corporation

NATL·NASDAQ

$38.63

-1.1%
TechnologySoftware - Application

NCR ATMCo, LLC operates as a financial technology company in the United States, rest of Americas, the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. The company operates through three segments: Self-Service Banking, Payments and Network, and Telecommunications and Technology. It provides self-directed banking solutions through automated and interactive teller machine technology, including software, services, hardware, and Allpoint network. The company also offers managed network and infrastructure services to enterprise clients across various industries through direct relationships with communications service providers and technology manufacturers. It serves financial institutions, merchants, manufacturers, retailers, and consumers. The company is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

At a Glance

Live Snapshot
Market Cap$2.85B
EPS1.2600
P/E Ratio30.66
Earnings Date02/26/2026

Intrinsic Alpha Methodology

Thesis Lenses

Signal · Driver · Risk

Signal

High confidence

Valuation multiple is elevated (P/E 30.7).

Valuation inputs: P/E 30.7, earnings yield +3.3%, momentum -1.1%.

If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.

Driver

High confidence

Return profile is strong (ROE +35.0%, ROIC +7.6%).

Profitability stack: net margin +2.1%, ROE +35.0%, ROIC +7.6%.

Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.

Risk

High confidence

Downside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.

Risk factors: liabilities/assets +95.2%, momentum -1.1%, net margin +2.1%.

Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.

n

NCR Atleos Corporation Market vs Earnings Trajectory

NATL · NASDAQ

Loading price and EPS data...

NA

NCR Atleos Corporation Fair Value Envelope

NATL · NASDAQ

Our analysis suggests that NATL has a fair value of HIDDEN per share in the Base Case projection. With shares currently trading at $38.63, this represents a potential HIDDEN relative to our calculated worth for NCR Atleos Corporation.

Intrinsic Value
Current Price: $38.63
3Y-53.0%
5Y-54.0%
10Y-54.0%
3Y+22.0%
5Y+44.0%
10Y+44.0%
3Y-51.0%
5Y-52.0%
10Y-52.0%
3Y-23.0%
5Y-16.0%
10Y-16.0%
3Y-39.0%
5Y-46.0%
10Y-46.0%
3Y-
5Y-
10Y-
NA

NCR Atleos Corporation Profit Bridge

NATL · NASDAQ
Revenue4.32B
Cost of Goods Sold (3.28B)
Gross Profit1.03B
Operating Expenses (584.00M)
Operating Income449.00M
Interest Expense (327.00M)
Other Income/Expense-310.00M
Pretax Income139.00M
Income Tax (47.00M)
Net Income91.00M
Net Income
91.00M

Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin

23.9%

Moderate margins typical of competitive industries. Monitor for pricing pressure or rising costs.

Operating Margin

10.4%

Acceptable margins but limited operational leverage. Operating expense control is important.

Net Profit Margin

2.1%

Minimal profitability after all expenses. Limited financial flexibility for reinvestment or shareholder returns.

Effective Tax Rate

33.8%

Higher tax burden may reflect limited tax optimization or operations in high-tax jurisdictions.

Profitability Insight

Room for improvement: Moderate profitability with opportunities to enhance margins through better cost management or pricing strategy.

23.93%
Gross Profit Margin
7%
3Y-5.0%
5Y+7.0%
10Y+7.0%
10.40%
Operating Profit Margin
61%
3Y+49.0%
5Y+44.0%
10Y+44.0%
2.11%
Net Profit Margin
-166%
3Y-60.0%
5Y-67.0%
10Y-67.0%
35.00%
Return on Equity
-174%
3Y+339.0%
5Y-
10Y-
1.64%
Return on Assets
-170%
3Y-51.0%
5Y-
10Y-
7.56%
Return on Invested Capital
-192%
3Y+70.0%
5Y-
10Y-
N

NCR Atleos Corporation Cash Conversion Engine

NATL · NASDAQ
Net Income92.00M
Depreciation & Amortization287.00M
Stock-Based Compensation38.00M
Change in Working Capital-74.00M
Others20.00M
Capital Expenditures-139.00M
Free Cash Flow205.00M

Cash Flow Quality Analysis

FCF Conversion Rate

222.8%

Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.

CapEx Intensity

40.4%

Capital-intensive operations require significant reinvestment. Monitor whether CapEx is maintenance or growth-oriented.

FCF Growth Trend

-8.1%

Declining FCF warrants attention. Investigate whether due to temporary factors or fundamental deterioration.

Working Capital Impact

-$74.00M

Moderate working capital outflow. Typical for growing businesses, but ensure it's supporting revenue growth, not inefficiency.

Cash Flow Quality Insight

Working capital strain: Significant cash tied up in operations. Monitor receivables collection, inventory turns, and payment terms to optimize cash conversion cycle.

n

NCR Atleos Corporation Funding & Solvency Profile

NATL · NASDAQ
Cash & Cash Equivalents412.00M
Net Receivables569.00M
Inventory383.00M
Other Current Assets453.00M
Total Current Assets2 B
Property, Plant & Equipment646.00M
Goodwill & Intangible Assets2.48B
Long-Term Investments0.00
Other Non-Current Assets419.00M
Total Non-Current Assets1 B
Total Assets
5.65B

Financial Health Analysis

Current Ratio

1.02x

Acceptable liquidity, but monitor closely. Current assets just barely cover current liabilities.

Debt-to-Equity Ratio

16.07x

High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.

Working Capital

33 M

Positive working capital, but relatively tight. The company should monitor cash flow carefully.

Asset Composition

32% Current

Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.

n

NCR Atleos Corporation Street Expectations Map

NATL · NASDAQ

Wall Street analysts project that NATL stock may see slight declines over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 36.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 29.00 to a high of 48.00.

Lowest Target
29.00
-24.93%
Consensus Target
36.00
-6.81%
Highest Target
48.00
24.26%

The consensus 1-year price target stands at 36.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 29.00 to a high of 48.00.

Analyst Consensus Analysis

Upside Potential

-6.8%

Downside risk. Current price above analyst targets indicates potential overvaluation. Exercise caution and review catalysts.

Analyst Agreement

52.8% spread

Mixed analyst views. Wide target range suggests differing opinions on key value drivers, growth prospects, or risk factors.

Risk-Reward Profile

0.97x

Unfavorable risk-reward. Downside risk exceeds upside potential. Consider defensive positioning or alternative opportunities.

Analyst Conviction

Low

Bearish or uncertain outlook. Limited upside or poor consensus suggests challenges ahead or fundamental concerns.

Market Sentiment Insight

Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.

n

NCR Atleos Corporation Insider Positioning

NATL · NASDAQ

During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $308K worth of NATL shares, with no buying activity reported.

3 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

3-6 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

6-9 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

8.8K

307.69K

Net Activity

-308K

-$308K

9-12 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

Top Buyers

No buying activity

Top Sellers

1
FMM

Frymire Michelle M

Director

8.8K shares1 transactions

$308K

Insider Activity Analysis

Net Insider Sentiment

Bearish

Strong bearish signal with $308K net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.

Buy/Sell Ratio

0.00:1

Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.

Insider Participation

High Selling

1 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.

No Dividend Yield Data

NATL has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.

 

natl Dividend History

NATL
10Y CAGR +7%
Latest $0.14
Annual $0.55
5 year growth trend
Last Period: +0%