Midland States Bancorp, Inc.
$27.49
-1.5%Midland States Bancorp, Inc. operates as a financial holding company for Midland States Bank that provides various banking products and services to individuals, businesses, municipalities, and other entities. It operates through Banking, Wealth Management, and Other segments. The company accepts various deposits, such as checking, savings, money market, and sweep accounts, as well as certificates of deposits. It also offers term loans to purchase capital equipment; lines of credit for working capital and operational purposes; commercial real estate loans for owner occupied and non-owner occupied commercial property, as well as farmland loans; construction and land development loans developers of commercial real estate investment properties, residential developments, individual clients for construction of single family homes, as well as to construct owner-user properties; and residential real estate loans and home equity lines of credit.. In addition, the company provides consumer installment loans for the purchase of cars, boats, and other recreational vehicles, as well as for the purchase of major appliances and other home improvement projects; commercial equipment leasing; and trust and wealth management products and services, including financial and estate planning, trustee and custodial services, investment management, tax and insurance planning, business planning, corporate retirement plan consulting and administration, and retail brokerage services. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 52 full-service banking offices. The company was founded in 1881 and is headquartered in Effingham, Illinois.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -4.5).
Valuation inputs: P/E -4.5, earnings yield N/A, momentum -1.5%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -22.0%, ROIC -9.5%).
Profitability stack: net margin -26.6%, ROE -22.0%, ROIC -9.5%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +91.3%, momentum -1.5%, net margin -26.6%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Midland States Bancorp, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Midland States Bancorp, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Midland States Bancorp, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Profitability Insight
Margin squeeze alert: Healthy gross margins but weak operating margins suggest excessive operating expenses. Cost optimization could unlock significant value.
Midland States Bancorp, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Minimal working capital impact on FCF. Changes in operating assets and liabilities well-managed.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Deteriorating cash generation: Both declining FCF and weak conversion rate signal fundamental challenges. Investigate margin pressure, rising costs, or working capital issues.
Midland States Bancorp, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Financial stress indicators: Both liquidity and leverage metrics raise concerns. The company may face challenges meeting obligations and should focus on strengthening its balance sheet.
Midland States Bancorp, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that MSBI stock may see slight declines over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 26.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 25.50 to a high of 28.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 26.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 25.50 to a high of 28.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Fair value territory. Stock trading near consensus target suggests limited near-term catalysts. Focus on fundamental developments.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Risk-Reward Profile
Unfavorable risk-reward. Downside risk exceeds upside potential. Consider defensive positioning or alternative opportunities.
Analyst Conviction
Neutral sentiment. Fair value pricing with moderate agreement suggests wait-and-see approach or catalyst-driven opportunity.
Market Sentiment Insight
Efficient pricing: Stock trading at fair value with strong consensus suggests market has priced in expectations. Look for fundamental inflection points or new catalysts to drive meaningful moves.
Midland States Bancorp, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $2.40M and sold $168K worth of MSBI shares, resulting in $2.23M of net buying activity.
3 Months
9.4K
248.99K
0
0.00
+249K
+$249K
3-6 Months
0
0.00
2.8K
63.66K
-64K
-$64K
6-9 Months
129.5K
1.94M
6.7K
103.42K
+1.8M
+$1.84M
9-12 Months
12.1K
206.66K
53
885.00
+206K
+$206K
Top Buyers
Ludwig Jeffrey G.
Director, Officer: President & Ceo
$587K
Jameson Jeremy Andrew
Officer: Evp - Chief Credit Officer
$440K
Mefford Jeffrey S.
Officer: President
$341K
Franklin Travis
Director
$267K
Lemke Eric
Officer: Chief Financial Officer
$219K
Top Sellers
Mooney Kyle Owen
Officer: Svp - Chief Operating Officer
$64K
Mefford Jeffrey S.
Officer: President
$47K
Lemke Eric
Officer: Chief Financial Officer
$31K
Casey Daniel Edward
Officer: Crof
$14K
Spring Donald J.
Officer: Chief Accounting Officer
$10K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bullish signal with $2.23M net buying. Insiders are aggressively accumulating shares, suggesting significant confidence in future prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Exceptional buy/sell ratio. Buying dramatically outweighs selling—one of the strongest possible insider signals.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Very strong recent buying momentum. Recent insider purchases significantly outpace sales, suggesting near-term optimism.
Insider Participation
5 insider buyers and 5 sellers. Equal participation suggests mixed or neutral insider views.
Insider Activity Insight
Strong confluence of bullish signals: High buy/sell ratio, multiple insiders participating, and recent buying momentum all point to significant insider confidence. This level of coordinated buying often precedes positive developments.
msbi Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on MSBI by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.