MGP Ingredients, Inc.
$16.29
-3.2%MGP Ingredients, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces and supplies distilled spirits, branded spirits, and food ingredients. It operates through three segments: Distillery Products; Branded Spirits; and Ingredient Solutions. The Distillery Products segment provides food grade alcohol for beverage applications that include bourbon and rye whiskeys, as well as grain neutral spirits, including vodka and gin; and food-grade industrial alcohol, which is used as an ingredient in foods, personal care products, cleaning solutions, pharmaceuticals, and various other products. This segment also provides fuel-grade alcohol for blending with gasoline; distillers feed and related co-products, such as distillers feed and corn oil; and warehouse services, including barrel put away, storage, and retrieval services, as well as blending services. The Branded Spirits segment provides ultra-premium, premium, mid, and value branded distilled spirits. The Ingredient Solutions segment provides specialty wheat starches for food applications under the Fibersym, Resistant Starch, and FiberRite RW Resistant Starch names; specialty wheat proteins for food applications under the Arise and Proterra names; gluten-free textured pea proteins; commodity wheat starch for food and non-food applications; and commodity wheat proteins. The company sells its products directly or through distributors to manufacturers and processors of finished packaged goods or to bakeries primarily in the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, Thailand, Mexico, and Canada. MGP Ingredients, Inc. was founded in 1941 and is headquartered in Atchison, Kansas.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -3.3).
Valuation inputs: P/E -3.3, earnings yield N/A, momentum -3.2%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -15.0%, ROIC -9.0%).
Profitability stack: net margin -20.1%, ROE -15.0%, ROIC -9.0%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +42.0%, momentum -3.2%, net margin -20.1%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
MGP Ingredients, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
Performance Analysis
EPS Growth
Declining earnings warrant investigation into business challenges and competitive position.
Price-EPS Relationship
Both price and earnings are declining together, reflecting deteriorating business fundamentals.
Stock Price Change
Over the 1Y period, stock price has decreased by 45.4%.
P/E Ratio (TTM)
Relatively low P/E may indicate undervaluation or lower growth expectations.
MGP Ingredients, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
MGP Ingredients, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Strong gross margins indicate healthy pricing and efficient production or service delivery.
Operating Margin
Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Profitability Insight
Margin squeeze alert: Healthy gross margins but weak operating margins suggest excessive operating expenses. Cost optimization could unlock significant value.
MGP Ingredients, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.
CapEx Intensity
Moderate capital requirements typical of many stable businesses. Healthy balance between reinvestment and cash generation.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
MGP Ingredients, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Balanced capital structure with moderate leverage. Equity exceeds debt, suggesting healthy financial stability.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Balanced asset mix between current and non-current assets, typical of many stable businesses.
Financial Health Insight
Strong financial foundation: Excellent liquidity combined with conservative leverage suggests the company is well-positioned to weather economic uncertainties and fund growth opportunities.
MGP Ingredients, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that MGPI stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 29.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 29.00 to a high of 29.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 29.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 29.00 to a high of 29.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Analyst Conviction
Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.
Market Sentiment Insight
Rare opportunity: Exceptional upside potential with strong analyst consensus creates a compelling setup. The combination of significant price target premium and tight agreement suggests high-conviction undervaluation that may attract institutional capital.
MGP Ingredients, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $39K and sold $5.90M worth of MGPI shares, resulting in $5.86M of net selling activity.
3 Months
0
0.00
60.0K
1.08M
-1.1M
-$1.08M
3-6 Months
0
0.00
169.3K
4.11M
-4.1M
-$4.11M
6-9 Months
1.6K
38.75K
29.8K
711.45K
-673K
-$673K
9-12 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
Top Buyers
Roper Martin
Director
$39K
Top Sellers
Seaberg Karen
Director
$4.11M
Kaplan Caroline Lux
10 Percent Owner
$1.79M
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $5.86M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
2 insider sellers vs. 1 buyers. More insiders selling than buying suggests cautious or negative sentiment.
Insider Activity Insight
Persistent selling pressure: Consistent insider selling with weak buy/sell ratio suggests insiders may be capitalizing on current valuation. Exercise caution and review recent earnings quality and management commentary.
mgpi Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on MGPI by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.