MGE Energy, Inc.
$73.86
+0.61%MGE Energy, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a public utility holding company primarily in Wisconsin. It operates through Regulated Electric Utility Operations; Regulated Gas Utility Operations; Nonregulated Energy Operations; Transmission Investments; and All Other. The company generates, purchases, and distributes electricity; owns or leases electric generation facilities located in Wisconsin and Iowa; and plans, constructs, operates, maintains, and expands transmission facilities to provide transmission services. It also generates electricity from coal-fired, gas-fired, and renewable energy sources, as well as purchases power under short and long-term commitments. As of December 31, 2021, the company generated and distributed electricity to 159,000 customers in Dane County, Wisconsin; and purchased and distributed natural gas to 169,000 customers in seven Wisconsin counties. MGE Energy, Inc.is headquartered in Madison, Wisconsin.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is mid-range (P/E 19.9).
Valuation inputs: P/E 19.9, earnings yield +5.0%, momentum +0.6%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +10.4%, ROIC +5.0%).
Profitability stack: net margin +18.3%, ROE +10.4%, ROIC +5.0%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile looks controlled across current risk inputs.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +58.7%, momentum +0.6%, net margin +18.3%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
MGE Energy, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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MGE Energy, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
MGE Energy, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Healthy operating margins demonstrate effective cost control and strong business fundamentals.
Net Profit Margin
Strong net margins indicate efficient operations and favorable tax/interest management.
Effective Tax Rate
Below-average tax rate suggests effective tax planning, favorable jurisdictions, or tax credits.
Profitability Insight
Exceptional profitability across all levels: Strong pricing power, efficient operations, and healthy bottom line indicate a high-quality business with sustainable competitive advantages.
MGE Energy, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.
CapEx Intensity
Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Cash flow concerns: Despite profitability, the company is burning cash. Review working capital management, CapEx levels, and sustainability of current operations.
MGE Energy, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Acceptable liquidity, but monitor closely. Current assets just barely cover current liabilities.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Elevated leverage. Debt exceeds equity, which amplifies both gains and risks. Monitor debt servicing ability.
Working Capital
Positive working capital, but relatively tight. The company should monitor cash flow carefully.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
MGE Energy, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that MGEE stock may see slight declines over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 70.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 70.00 to a high of 70.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 70.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 70.00 to a high of 70.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Downside risk. Current price above analyst targets indicates potential overvaluation. Exercise caution and review catalysts.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Risk-Reward Profile
Balanced risk-reward. Upside and downside potential relatively symmetric. Suitable for moderate risk tolerance with conviction in thesis.
Analyst Conviction
Bearish or uncertain outlook. Limited upside or poor consensus suggests challenges ahead or fundamental concerns.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
MGE Energy, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $114K worth of MGEE shares, with no selling activity reported.
3 Months
372
28.92K
0
0.00
+29K
+$29K
3-6 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
6-9 Months
523
42.40K
0
0.00
+42K
+$42K
9-12 Months
506
42.42K
0
0.00
+42K
+$42K
Top Buyers
Berbee James G
Director
$114K
Top Sellers
No selling activity
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bullish signal with $114K net buying. Insiders are aggressively accumulating shares, suggesting significant confidence in future prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Perfect buy/sell ratio. Only buying activity with zero selling—the most bullish possible insider signal.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Very strong recent buying momentum. Recent insider purchases significantly outpace sales, suggesting near-term optimism.
Insider Participation
1 insider buyers vs. 0 sellers. Broad-based buying across management team suggests widespread confidence.
Insider Activity Insight
Unanimous insider buying: Zero selling combined with active buying is rare and typically very bullish. Insiders appear to see significant upside with limited downside risk.
mgee Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on MGEE by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.