Medpace Holdings, Inc.
$450.81
+1.2%Medpace Holdings, Inc. provides clinical research-based drug and medical device development services in North America, Europe, and Asia. It offers a suite of services supporting the clinical development process from Phase I to Phase IV in various therapeutic areas. The company also provides clinical development services to the pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and medical device industries; and development plan design, coordinated central laboratory, project management, regulatory affairs, clinical monitoring, data management and analysis, pharmacovigilance new drug application submissions, and post-marketing clinical support services. In addition, it offers bio-analytical laboratory services, clinical human pharmacology, imaging services, and electrocardiography reading support for clinical trials. The company was founded in 1992 and is based in Cincinnati, Ohio.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is elevated (P/E 28.8).
Valuation inputs: P/E 28.8, earnings yield +3.5%, momentum +1.2%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is strong (ROE +98.3%, ROIC +67.9%).
Profitability stack: net margin +17.8%, ROE +98.3%, ROIC +67.9%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile looks controlled across current risk inputs.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +76.8%, momentum +1.2%, net margin +17.8%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Medpace Holdings, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Medpace Holdings, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Medpace Holdings, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Moderate margins typical of competitive industries. Monitor for pricing pressure or rising costs.
Operating Margin
Healthy operating margins demonstrate effective cost control and strong business fundamentals.
Net Profit Margin
Strong net margins indicate efficient operations and favorable tax/interest management.
Effective Tax Rate
Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.
Profitability Insight
Efficient profit conversion: Minimal margin compression from gross to net indicates lean operations and favorable tax/interest environment.
Medpace Holdings, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Exceptional cash generation: High-quality earnings converting to growing free cash flow. The company demonstrates strong pricing power, efficient operations, and disciplined capital allocation.
Medpace Holdings, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Balanced asset mix between current and non-current assets, typical of many stable businesses.
Financial Health Insight
Financial stress indicators: Both liquidity and leverage metrics raise concerns. The company may face challenges meeting obligations and should focus on strengthening its balance sheet.
Medpace Holdings, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that MEDP stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 498.86, with estimates ranging from a low of 400.00 to a high of 582.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 498.86, with estimates ranging from a low of 400.00 to a high of 582.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Moderate upside. Analysts expect positive returns but with limited margin of safety. Consider entry timing.
Analyst Agreement
Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.
Risk-Reward Profile
Favorable risk-reward. Potential upside significantly exceeds downside risk, offering asymmetric return profile attractive for risk-tolerant investors.
Analyst Conviction
Positive outlook with reasonable agreement. Analysts generally optimistic about prospects with manageable uncertainty.
Market Sentiment Insight
Asymmetric upside: Strong return potential with favorable risk-reward profile. The limited downside relative to upside makes this an attractive risk-adjusted opportunity for growth-oriented portfolios.
Medpace Holdings, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $333.22M worth of MEDP shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
48.1K
21.79M
-21.8M
-$21.79M
3-6 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
6-9 Months
0
0.00
393.6K
236.75M
-236.8M
-$236.75M
9-12 Months
0
0.00
162.5K
74.68M
-74.7M
-$74.68M
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Troendle August J.
Director, 10 Percent Owner, Officer: Ceo
$207.59M
Geiger Jesse J
Officer: President
$60.05M
Burwig Susan E
Officer: Exec. Vp, Operations
$32.46M
Ewald Stephen P
Officer: General Counsel & Corp. Secy.
$17.83M
Brady Kevin M.
Officer: Cfo & Treasurer
$7.22M
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $333.22M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
No Dividend Yield Data
MEDP has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
medp Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on MEDP by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.