Mister Car Wash, Inc.
$7.10
+0.28%Mister Car Wash, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides conveyorized car wash services in the United States. It offers express exterior and interior cleaning services. As of June 16, 2022, it operated 407 car wash locations in 21 states. The company was formerly known as Hotshine Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Mister Car Wash, Inc. in March 2021. Mister Car Wash, Inc. was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Tucson, Arizona.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is mid-range (P/E 17.6).
Valuation inputs: P/E 17.6, earnings yield +5.7%, momentum +0.3%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +9.1%, ROIC +5.2%).
Profitability stack: net margin +9.8%, ROE +9.1%, ROIC +5.2%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile looks controlled across current risk inputs.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +64.3%, momentum +0.3%, net margin +9.8%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Mister Car Wash, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Mister Car Wash, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Mister Car Wash, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Healthy operating margins demonstrate effective cost control and strong business fundamentals.
Net Profit Margin
Moderate profitability with room for improvement. Monitor interest expenses and tax efficiency.
Effective Tax Rate
Higher tax burden may reflect limited tax optimization or operations in high-tax jurisdictions.
Profitability Insight
High margin compression: Large gap between gross and net margins suggests operational inefficiencies or heavy debt burden. Focus on expense management and deleveraging.
Mister Car Wash, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Weak cash conversion. Significant portion of earnings not converting to cash—review working capital trends and capital intensity.
CapEx Intensity
Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Capital-intensive growth: Heavy reinvestment limits current cash available but may drive future returns. Assess whether CapEx supports compelling growth opportunities with adequate ROI.
Mister Car Wash, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Elevated leverage. Debt exceeds equity, which amplifies both gains and risks. Monitor debt servicing ability.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Financial stress indicators: Both liquidity and leverage metrics raise concerns. The company may face challenges meeting obligations and should focus on strengthening its balance sheet.
Mister Car Wash, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that MCW stock may see slight declines over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 7.08, with estimates ranging from a low of 7.00 to a high of 7.50.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 7.08, with estimates ranging from a low of 7.00 to a high of 7.50.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Fair value territory. Stock trading near consensus target suggests limited near-term catalysts. Focus on fundamental developments.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Risk-Reward Profile
Favorable risk-reward. Potential upside significantly exceeds downside risk, offering asymmetric return profile attractive for risk-tolerant investors.
Analyst Conviction
Neutral sentiment. Fair value pricing with moderate agreement suggests wait-and-see approach or catalyst-driven opportunity.
Market Sentiment Insight
Efficient pricing: Stock trading at fair value with strong consensus suggests market has priced in expectations. Look for fundamental inflection points or new catalysts to drive meaningful moves.
Mister Car Wash, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $245K worth of MCW shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
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0
0.00
+0
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3-6 Months
0
0.00
29.1K
206.14K
-206K
-$206K
6-9 Months
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0
0.00
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9-12 Months
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6.4K
38.97K
-39K
-$39K
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Lai John Lo-Minn
Director, Officer: Chief Executive Officer
$156K
Gold Jedidiah Marc
Officer: Chief Financial Officer
$73K
Matheny Joseph Duane
Officer: Chief Innovation Officer
$16K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $245K net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Insider Participation
3 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
No Dividend Yield Data
MCW has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
mcw Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on MCW by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.