Grand Canyon Education, Inc.

Grand Canyon Education, Inc.

LOPEยทNASDAQ

$148.61

-2.5%
Consumer DefensiveEducation & Training Services

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. provides education services to colleges and universities in the United States. The company's technology services include learning management system, internal administration, infrastructure, and support services; academic services comprises program and curriculum, faculty and related training and development, class scheduling, and skills and simulation lab sites; and counseling services and support include admission, financial aid, and field experience and other counseling services. It also offers marketing and communication services, such as lead acquisition, digital communications strategy, brand identity, market research, media planning and strategy, video, and business intelligence and data science; and back-office services comprising finance and accounting, human resources, audit, and procurement services. The company, through its subsidiary, Orbis Education Services, LLC, supports healthcare education programs for 27 universities. Grand Canyon Education, Inc. was founded in 1949 and is based in Phoenix, Arizona.

At a Glance

Live Snapshot
Market Cap$3.94B
EPS7.7600
P/E Ratio19.15
Earnings Date08/05/2026

Intrinsic Alpha Methodology

Thesis Lenses

Signal ยท Driver ยท Risk

Signal

High confidence

Valuation multiple is mid-range (P/E 19.1).

Valuation inputs: P/E 19.1, earnings yield +5.2%, momentum -2.5%.

If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.

Driver

High confidence

Return profile is strong (ROE +28.9%, ROIC +26.1%).

Profitability stack: net margin +19.5%, ROE +28.9%, ROIC +26.1%.

Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.

Risk

High confidence

Downside profile looks controlled across current risk inputs.

Risk factors: liabilities/assets +24.7%, momentum -2.5%, net margin +19.5%.

Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.

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Grand Canyon Education, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory

LOPE ยท NASDAQ

Loading price and EPS data...

Grand Canyon Education, Inc.

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. Fair Value Envelope

LOPE ยท NASDAQ

Our analysis suggests that LOPE has a fair value of HIDDEN per share in the Base Case projection. With shares currently trading at $148.61, this represents a potential HIDDEN relative to our calculated worth for Grand Canyon Education, Inc..

Intrinsic Value
Current Price: $148.61
3Y+35.0%
5Y+41.0%
10Y+141.0%
3Y+21.0%
5Y+31.0%
10Y+27.0%
3Y+17.0%
5Y-16.0%
10Y+46.0%
3Y+24.0%
5Y-11.0%
10Y+25.0%
3Y+29.0%
5Y-14.0%
10Y-1251.0%
3Y+19.0%
5Y-46.0%
10Y-9.0%
Grand Canyon Education, Inc.

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. Profit Bridge

LOPE ยท NASDAQ
Revenue1.11B
Cost of Goods Sold (526.13M)
Gross Profit579.94M
Operating Expenses (276.32M)
Operating Income303.62M
Interest Expense (0.00)
Other Income/Expense-23.77M
Pretax Income279.85M
Income Tax (63.68M)
Net Income216.17M
Net Income
216.17M

Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin

52.4%

Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.

Operating Margin

27.5%

Outstanding operational efficiency. The company generates substantial profit from core operations.

Net Profit Margin

19.5%

Strong net margins indicate efficient operations and favorable tax/interest management.

Effective Tax Rate

22.8%

Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.

Profitability Insight

Exceptional profitability across all levels: Strong pricing power, efficient operations, and healthy bottom line indicate a high-quality business with sustainable competitive advantages.

52.43%
Gross Profit Margin
-1%
3Y-2.0%
5Y-10.0%
10Y+25.0%
27.45%
Operating Profit Margin
3%
3Y+5.0%
5Y-16.0%
10Y+1.0%
19.54%
Net Profit Margin
-11%
3Y-4.0%
5Y-36.0%
10Y+15.0%
28.94%
Return on Equity
3Y-
5Y+77.0%
10Y+51.0%
21.78%
Return on Assets
-2%
3Y-2.0%
5Y+56.0%
10Y+60.0%
26.14%
Return on Invested Capital
12%
3Y+6.0%
5Y+116.0%
10Y+57.0%
LOPE

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine

LOPE ยท NASDAQ
Net Income216.17M
Depreciation & Amortization39.90M
Stock-Based Compensation13.64M
Change in Working Capital-13.22M
Others2.26M
Capital Expenditures-34.84M
Free Cash Flow238.65M

Cash Flow Quality Analysis

FCF Conversion Rate

110.4%

Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.

CapEx Intensity

12.7%

Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.

FCF Growth Trend

-5.6%

Declining FCF warrants attention. Investigate whether due to temporary factors or fundamental deterioration.

Working Capital Impact

-$13.22M

Minimal working capital impact on FCF. Changes in operating assets and liabilities well-managed.

Cash Flow Quality Insight

Asset-light with strong cash conversion: Low capital requirements combined with efficient cash generation creates significant shareholder value through dividends, buybacks, or strategic investments.

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Grand Canyon Education, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile

LOPE ยท NASDAQ
Cash & Cash Equivalents96.14M
Net Receivables113.25M
Inventory0.00
Other Current Assets170.58M
Total Current Assets380 M
Property, Plant & Equipment273.15M
Goodwill & Intangible Assets310.20M
Long-Term Investments0.00
Other Non-Current Assets4.56M
Total Non-Current Assets278 M
Total Assets
967.89M

Financial Health Analysis

Current Ratio

2.75x

Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.

Debt-to-Equity Ratio

0.39x

Conservative capital structure. The company relies primarily on equity financing, indicating low financial risk.

Working Capital

242 M

Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.

Asset Composition

39% Current

Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.

Financial Health Insight

Strong financial foundation: Excellent liquidity combined with conservative leverage suggests the company is well-positioned to weather economic uncertainties and fund growth opportunities.

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Grand Canyon Education, Inc. Street Expectations Map

LOPE ยท NASDAQ

Wall Street analysts project that LOPE stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 182.33, with estimates ranging from a low of 162.00 to a high of 215.00.

Lowest Target
162.00
9.01%
Consensus Target
182.33
22.69%
Highest Target
215.00
44.67%

The consensus 1-year price target stands at 182.33, with estimates ranging from a low of 162.00 to a high of 215.00.

Analyst Consensus Analysis

Upside Potential

+22.7%

Strong upside potential. Consensus indicates attractive return opportunity with favorable risk-reward profile.

Analyst Agreement

29.1% spread

Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.

Analyst Conviction

Very High

Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.

Market Sentiment Insight

Rare opportunity: Exceptional upside potential with strong analyst consensus creates a compelling setup. The combination of significant price target premium and tight agreement suggests high-conviction undervaluation that may attract institutional capital.

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Grand Canyon Education, Inc. Insider Positioning

LOPE ยท NASDAQ

During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $100K worth of LOPE shares, with no buying activity reported.

3 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

3-6 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

6-9 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

600

99.69K

Net Activity

-100K

-$100K

9-12 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

Top Buyers

No buying activity

Top Sellers

1
HC

Humphrey Chevy

Director

600 sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$100K

Insider Activity Analysis

Net Insider Sentiment

Bearish

Strong bearish signal with $100K net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.

Buy/Sell Ratio

0.00:1

Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.

Insider Participation

High Selling

1 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.

0.00%
Dividend Yield
3Y-
5Y-
10Y-
ย 

lope Dividend History

LOPE
10Y CAGR +0%
Latest $0
Annual $0
Stable dividend payments
Last Period: +0%