Lumentum Holdings Inc.
$938.00
-8.9%Lumentum Holdings Inc. manufactures and sells optical and photonic products in the Americas, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. The company operates in two segments, Optical Communications (OpComms) and Commercial Lasers (Lasers). The OpComms segment offers components, modules, and subsystems that enable the transmission and transport of video, audio, and data over high-capacity fiber optic cables. It offers tunable transponders, transceivers, and transmitter modules; tunable lasers, receivers, and modulators; transport products, such as reconfigurable optical add/drop multiplexers, amplifiers, and optical channel monitors, as well as components, including 980nm, multi-mode, and Raman pumps; and switches, attenuators, photodetectors, gain flattening filters, isolators, wavelength-division multiplexing filters, arrayed waveguide gratings, multiplex/de-multiplexers, and integrated passive modules. This segment also provides Super Transport Blade, which integrates optical transport functions into a single-slot blade; vertical-cavity surface-emitting lasers; directly modulated and electro-absorption modulated lasers; and laser illumination sources for 3D sensing systems. It serves customers in telecommunications, data communications, and consumer and industrial markets. The Commercial Lasers segment offers diode-pumped solid-state, fiber, diode, direct-diode, and gas lasers for use in original equipment manufacturer applications. It serves customers in markets and applications, such as sheet metal processing, general manufacturing, biotechnology, graphics and imaging, remote sensing, and precision machining. Lumentum Holdings Inc. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is elevated (P/E 2468.4).
Valuation inputs: P/E 2468.4, earnings yield +0.0%, momentum -8.9%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +2.3%, ROIC +0.7%).
Profitability stack: net margin +1.6%, ROE +2.3%, ROIC +0.7%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +73.1%, momentum -8.9%, net margin +1.6%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Lumentum Holdings Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Lumentum Holdings Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Lumentum Holdings Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Moderate margins typical of competitive industries. Monitor for pricing pressure or rising costs.
Operating Margin
Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.
Net Profit Margin
Minimal profitability after all expenses. Limited financial flexibility for reinvestment or shareholder returns.
Lumentum Holdings Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.
CapEx Intensity
Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.
FCF Growth Trend
Steady FCF growth indicates consistent cash generation improvement. On a positive trajectory.
Working Capital Impact
Significant working capital drain. Growth may be consuming cash through inventory buildup or receivables extension—monitor closely.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Cash flow concerns: Despite profitability, the company is burning cash. Review working capital management, CapEx levels, and sustainability of current operations.
Lumentum Holdings Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Acceptable liquidity, but monitor closely. Current assets just barely cover current liabilities.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Elevated leverage. Debt exceeds equity, which amplifies both gains and risks. Monitor debt servicing ability.
Working Capital
Positive working capital, but relatively tight. The company should monitor cash flow carefully.
Asset Composition
Asset-light business model with high liquidity. Majority of assets are easily convertible to cash.
Lumentum Holdings Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that LITE stock may see slight declines over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 918.67, with estimates ranging from a low of 380.00 to a high of 1.27K.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 918.67, with estimates ranging from a low of 380.00 to a high of 1.27K.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Fair value territory. Stock trading near consensus target suggests limited near-term catalysts. Focus on fundamental developments.
Analyst Agreement
High uncertainty. Very wide target spread indicates significant disagreement among analysts—major valuation uncertainty or transformation underway.
Risk-Reward Profile
Unfavorable risk-reward. Downside risk exceeds upside potential. Consider defensive positioning or alternative opportunities.
Analyst Conviction
High uncertainty: Wide dispersion indicates analysts struggle to agree on valuation—proceed with caution and independent analysis.
Market Sentiment Insight
Extreme uncertainty: Massive dispersion in price targets reflects fundamental disagreement on business trajectory. This could signal transformation, disruption, or complex valuation—requires deep sector expertise and contrarian mindset.
Lumentum Holdings Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $44.35M worth of LITE shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
24.4K
22.49M
-22.5M
-$22.49M
3-6 Months
0
0.00
8.9K
4.82M
-4.8M
-$4.82M
6-9 Months
0
0.00
29.4K
7.52M
-7.5M
-$7.52M
9-12 Months
0
0.00
94.6K
9.52M
-9.5M
-$9.52M
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Wupen Yuen
Officer: President, Global Bus. Units
$6.77M
Small Ian
Director
$6.16M
Retort Vincent
Officer: See Remarks
$5.92M
Harris Isaac Hosojiro
Director
$5.19M
Lowe Alan S
Director
$4.47M
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $44.35M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
lite Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on LITE by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.