Jack in the Box Inc.
$11.95
-6.3%Jack in the Box Inc. operates and franchises Jack in the Box quick-service restaurants. As of November 23, 2021, it operated and franchised approximately 2,200 Jack in the Box quick-service restaurants in 21 states and Guam. The company was founded in 1951 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -2.8).
Valuation inputs: P/E -2.8, earnings yield N/A, momentum -6.3%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +8.6%, ROIC -0.6%).
Profitability stack: net margin -5.5%, ROE +8.6%, ROIC -0.6%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +136.2%, momentum -6.3%, net margin -5.5%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Jack in the Box Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
Loading price and EPS data...
Jack in the Box Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Jack in the Box Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Moderate margins typical of competitive industries. Monitor for pricing pressure or rising costs.
Operating Margin
Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Jack in the Box Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.
CapEx Intensity
Capital-intensive operations require significant reinvestment. Monitor whether CapEx is maintenance or growth-oriented.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Jack in the Box Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Financial stress indicators: Both liquidity and leverage metrics raise concerns. The company may face challenges meeting obligations and should focus on strengthening its balance sheet.
Jack in the Box Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that JACK stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 16.96, with estimates ranging from a low of 12.00 to a high of 25.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 16.96, with estimates ranging from a low of 12.00 to a high of 25.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
High uncertainty. Very wide target spread indicates significant disagreement among analysts—major valuation uncertainty or transformation underway.
Analyst Conviction
High uncertainty: Wide dispersion indicates analysts struggle to agree on valuation—proceed with caution and independent analysis.
Market Sentiment Insight
High risk, high reward: Substantial upside potential exists, but wide analyst disagreement signals execution risk or unclear catalysts. Thorough due diligence essential before committing capital.
Jack in the Box Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $173K and sold $220K worth of JACK shares, resulting in $48K of net selling activity.
3 Months
6.0K
68.62K
5.7K
68.58K
+44
+$44
3-6 Months
0
0.00
4.5K
91.47K
-91K
-$91K
6-9 Months
6.0K
104.00K
3.2K
60.21K
+44K
+$44K
9-12 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
Top Buyers
Tucker Lance F.
Director, Officer: Director & Ceo
$86K
Diaz Guillermo Jr
Director
$69K
Ostrom Ryan Lee
Officer: Evp, Chief Cust&Digtl Officer
$18K
Top Sellers
Super Sarah L
Officer: Evp, Chief Legal&Admin Officer
$55K
Mount Carl
Officer: Svp, Chf Supply Chain Officer
$52K
Tucker Lance F.
Director, Officer: Director & Ceo
$37K
Cook Richard D
Officer: Svp, Chief Technology Officer
$24K
Piano Steven
Officer: Svp, Chief People Officer
$19K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Slightly bearish with $48K net selling. Selling modestly exceeds buying, which could be routine diversification rather than concern.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Moderately negative ratio. Selling is roughly double the buying, which may be routine or signal caution.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Positive recent trend with net buying activity. Insiders have been accumulating shares in recent months.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 3 buyers. More insiders selling than buying suggests cautious or negative sentiment.
jack Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on JACK by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.