Hub Group, Inc.
$43.02
-1.3%Hub Group, Inc., a supply chain solutions provider, offers transportation and logistics management services in North America. The company's transportation services include intermodal, truckload, less-than-truckload, flatbed, temperature-controlled, and dedicated and regional trucking, as well as final mile, railcar, small parcel, and international transportation. Its logistics services comprise full outsource logistics solution, transportation management, freight consolidation, warehousing and fulfillment, final mile delivery, and parcel and international services. The company also provides dry van, expedited, less-than-truckload, refrigerated, and flatbed truck brokerage services. It offers a fleet of approximately 1,000 tractors and 4,600 trailers to its customers, as well as the driver staffing, management, and infrastructure. The company serves a range of industries, including retail, consumer products, and durable goods. As of December 31, 2021, it owned approximately 43,750 dry, 53-foot containers, as well as 450 refrigerated, 53-foot containers; and leased approximately 250 dry, 53-foot containers. The company was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Oak Brook, Illinois.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is elevated (P/E 25.0).
Valuation inputs: P/E 25.0, earnings yield +4.0%, momentum -1.3%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +6.3%, ROIC +4.5%).
Profitability stack: net margin +2.6%, ROE +6.3%, ROIC +4.5%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +41.0%, momentum -1.3%, net margin +2.6%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Hub Group, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Hub Group, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Hub Group, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Minimal operating profit suggests high operating costs or pricing challenges. Scalability is concerning.
Net Profit Margin
Minimal profitability after all expenses. Limited financial flexibility for reinvestment or shareholder returns.
Effective Tax Rate
Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.
Profitability Insight
Margin squeeze alert: Healthy gross margins but weak operating margins suggest excessive operating expenses. Cost optimization could unlock significant value.
Hub Group, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Moderate capital requirements typical of many stable businesses. Healthy balance between reinvestment and cash generation.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Significant working capital drain. Growth may be consuming cash through inventory buildup or receivables extension—monitor closely.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Asset-light with strong cash conversion: Low capital requirements combined with efficient cash generation creates significant shareholder value through dividends, buybacks, or strategic investments.
Hub Group, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Acceptable liquidity, but monitor closely. Current assets just barely cover current liabilities.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Balanced capital structure with moderate leverage. Equity exceeds debt, suggesting healthy financial stability.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Hub Group, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that HUBG stock may experience modest gains over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 44.33, with estimates ranging from a low of 27.00 to a high of 55.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 44.33, with estimates ranging from a low of 27.00 to a high of 55.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Fair value territory. Stock trading near consensus target suggests limited near-term catalysts. Focus on fundamental developments.
Analyst Agreement
High uncertainty. Very wide target spread indicates significant disagreement among analysts—major valuation uncertainty or transformation underway.
Risk-Reward Profile
Unfavorable risk-reward. Downside risk exceeds upside potential. Consider defensive positioning or alternative opportunities.
Analyst Conviction
High uncertainty: Wide dispersion indicates analysts struggle to agree on valuation—proceed with caution and independent analysis.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
Hub Group, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $200K and sold $1.41M worth of HUBG shares, resulting in $1.21M of net selling activity.
3 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
3-6 Months
4.6K
199.69K
32.0K
1.40M
-1.2M
-$1.20M
6-9 Months
0
0.00
229
8.16K
-8K
-$8K
9-12 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
Top Buyers
Yablon Gary
Director
$200K
Top Sellers
Yeager Phillip D
Director, Officer: President, Ceo & Vice Chairman
$1.40M
Bansal Dhruv
Officer: Chief Information Officer
$8K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $1.21M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Weak buy/sell ratio. Selling significantly exceeds buying—monitor for potential fundamental concerns.
Insider Participation
2 insider sellers vs. 1 buyers. More insiders selling than buying suggests cautious or negative sentiment.
hubg Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on HUBG by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.