HighPeak Energy, Inc.
$8.32
+5.1%HighPeak Energy, Inc., an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves in the Midland Basin in West Texas. As of December 31, 2021, the company had approximately 64,213 MBoe of proved reserves. HighPeak Energy, Inc. was incorporated in 2019 and is headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is elevated (P/E 64.0).
Valuation inputs: P/E 64.0, earnings yield +1.6%, momentum +5.1%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +1.2%, ROIC +3.4%).
Profitability stack: net margin +2.2%, ROE +1.2%, ROIC +3.4%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +52.3%, momentum +5.1%, net margin +2.2%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
HighPeak Energy, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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HighPeak Energy, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
HighPeak Energy, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Moderate margins typical of competitive industries. Monitor for pricing pressure or rising costs.
Operating Margin
Healthy operating margins demonstrate effective cost control and strong business fundamentals.
Net Profit Margin
Minimal profitability after all expenses. Limited financial flexibility for reinvestment or shareholder returns.
Effective Tax Rate
Higher tax burden may reflect limited tax optimization or operations in high-tax jurisdictions.
Profitability Insight
Interest or tax burden: Strong operational performance but thin net margins indicate high interest expenses or unfavorable tax position eating into profits.
HighPeak Energy, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.
CapEx Intensity
Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Cash flow concerns: Despite profitability, the company is burning cash. Review working capital management, CapEx levels, and sustainability of current operations.
HighPeak Energy, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Elevated leverage. Debt exceeds equity, which amplifies both gains and risks. Monitor debt servicing ability.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Negative working capital with limited cash reserves requires immediate attention—potential liquidity crisis if not addressed promptly.
HighPeak Energy, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that HPK stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 12.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 12.00 to a high of 12.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 12.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 12.00 to a high of 12.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Analyst Conviction
Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.
Market Sentiment Insight
Rare opportunity: Exceptional upside potential with strong analyst consensus creates a compelling setup. The combination of significant price target premium and tight agreement suggests high-conviction undervaluation that may attract institutional capital.
HighPeak Energy, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $208K worth of HPK shares, with no selling activity reported.
3 Months
9.3K
207.52K
0
0.00
+208K
+$208K
3-6 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
6-9 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
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9-12 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
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Top Buyers
Hollis Michael L.
Officer: President
$208K
Top Sellers
No selling activity
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bullish signal with $208K net buying. Insiders are aggressively accumulating shares, suggesting significant confidence in future prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Perfect buy/sell ratio. Only buying activity with zero selling—the most bullish possible insider signal.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Very strong recent buying momentum. Recent insider purchases significantly outpace sales, suggesting near-term optimism.
Insider Participation
1 insider buyers vs. 0 sellers. Broad-based buying across management team suggests widespread confidence.
Insider Activity Insight
Unanimous insider buying: Zero selling combined with active buying is rare and typically very bullish. Insiders appear to see significant upside with limited downside risk.
hpk Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on HPK by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.