Harmonic Inc.
$14.66
-7.3%Harmonic Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provide video delivery software, products, system solutions, and services worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Video and Cable Access. The Video segment sells video processing, production, and playout solutions and services to cable operators, and satellite and telecommunications Pay-TV service providers, as well as to broadcast and media, including streaming media companies. This segment's video processing appliance solutions include network management and application software, and hardware products, such as encoders, video servers, high-density stream processing systems, and edge processors. This segment also provides software-as-a-service (SaaS) solutions, which enables the packaging and delivery of streaming services, including live streaming, video-on-demand, catch-up TV, start-over TV, network-DVR, and cloud-DVR services through HTTP streaming to various device along with dynamic and personal ad insertion. The Cable Access segment offers CableOS software-based cable access solutions; and CableOS central cloud services primarily to cable operators. Its products enable customers to create, prepare, store, playout, and deliver a range of broadcast and streaming video services to consumer devices, including televisions, personal computers, laptops, tablets, and smart phones. The company also provides technical support and professional services, such as maintenance and support, consulting, implementation, program management, technical design and planning, building and site preparation, integration and equipment installation, end-to-end system testing, and training. It sells its products through its direct sales force, as well as through independent resellers and systems integrators. The company was incorporated in 1988 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -38.6).
Valuation inputs: P/E -38.6, earnings yield N/A, momentum -7.3%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -11.3%, ROIC +0.4%).
Profitability stack: net margin -12.0%, ROE -11.3%, ROIC +0.4%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +46.7%, momentum -7.3%, net margin -12.0%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Harmonic Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
Performance Analysis
EPS Growth
Declining earnings warrant investigation into business challenges and competitive position.
Price-EPS Relationship
Price is rising despite declining earnings—caution advised as valuation may be stretched.
Stock Price Change
Over the 1Y period, stock price has increased by 56.0%.
P/E Ratio (TTM)
Relatively low P/E may indicate undervaluation or lower growth expectations.
Key Insight
Despite declining earnings (-161.7%), the stock price has risen (+56.0%). This disconnect suggests investors may be optimistic about future turnaround, but earnings recovery is critical to sustain the valuation.
Harmonic Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Harmonic Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Strong gross margins indicate healthy pricing and efficient production or service delivery.
Operating Margin
Minimal operating profit suggests high operating costs or pricing challenges. Scalability is concerning.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Effective Tax Rate
Higher tax burden may reflect limited tax optimization or operations in high-tax jurisdictions.
Profitability Insight
Margin squeeze alert: Healthy gross margins but weak operating margins suggest excessive operating expenses. Cost optimization could unlock significant value.
Harmonic Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Harmonic Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Balanced capital structure with moderate leverage. Equity exceeds debt, suggesting healthy financial stability.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Asset-light business model with high liquidity. Majority of assets are easily convertible to cash.
Financial Health Insight
Strong financial foundation: Excellent liquidity combined with conservative leverage suggests the company is well-positioned to weather economic uncertainties and fund growth opportunities.
Harmonic Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that HLIT stock may experience modest gains over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 15.75, with estimates ranging from a low of 15.00 to a high of 18.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 15.75, with estimates ranging from a low of 15.00 to a high of 18.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Moderate upside. Analysts expect positive returns but with limited margin of safety. Consider entry timing.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Analyst Conviction
Positive outlook with reasonable agreement. Analysts generally optimistic about prospects with manageable uncertainty.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
Harmonic Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $516K and sold $641K worth of HLIT shares, resulting in $126K of net selling activity.
3 Months
0
0.00
36.1K
477.81K
-478K
-$478K
3-6 Months
47.5K
499.04K
15.6K
163.51K
+336K
+$336K
6-9 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
9-12 Months
2.0K
16.50K
0
0.00
+17K
+$17K
Top Buyers
Krall David
Director
$499K
Whalen Daniel T
Director
$17K
Top Sellers
Haltmayer Neven
Officer: Svp & Gm, Video Business
$584K
Copeland Stephanie
Director
$57K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Slightly bearish with $126K net selling. Selling modestly exceeds buying, which could be routine diversification rather than concern.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Moderately negative ratio. Selling is roughly double the buying, which may be routine or signal caution.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
2 insider buyers and 2 sellers. Equal participation suggests mixed or neutral insider views.
No Dividend Yield Data
HLIT has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
hlit Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on HLIT by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.