Horizon Bancorp, Inc.
$18.17
-2.5%Horizon Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Horizon Bank that provides a range of commercial and retail banking services. The company offers various deposits. It also provides commercial, residential real estate, mortgage warehouse, and consumer loans. In addition, the company offers corporate and individual trust and agency, investment management, and real estate investment trust services; and sells various insurance products. It operates through a network of 78 full-service offices in northern and central Indiana and southern and central Michigan. Horizon Bancorp, Inc. was founded in 1873 and is headquartered in Michigan City, Indiana.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -5.8).
Valuation inputs: P/E -5.8, earnings yield N/A, momentum -2.5%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -21.9%, ROIC -42.0%).
Profitability stack: net margin -1.5%, ROE -21.9%, ROIC -42.0%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +89.3%, momentum -2.5%, net margin -1.5%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Horizon Bancorp, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Horizon Bancorp, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Horizon Bancorp, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Negative gross margin indicates the company is losing money on each sale—unsustainable long-term.
Operating Margin
Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Profitability Insight
High margin compression: Large gap between gross and net margins suggests operational inefficiencies or heavy debt burden. Focus on expense management and deleveraging.
Horizon Bancorp, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Significant working capital drain. Growth may be consuming cash through inventory buildup or receivables extension—monitor closely.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Working capital strain: Significant cash tied up in operations. Monitor receivables collection, inventory turns, and payment terms to optimize cash conversion cycle.
Horizon Bancorp, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Horizon Bancorp, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that HBNC stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 20.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 20.00 to a high of 21.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 20.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 20.00 to a high of 21.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Moderate upside. Analysts expect positive returns but with limited margin of safety. Consider entry timing.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Analyst Conviction
Positive outlook with reasonable agreement. Analysts generally optimistic about prospects with manageable uncertainty.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
Horizon Bancorp, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $320K and sold $204K worth of HBNC shares, resulting in $115K of net buying activity.
3 Months
1.3K
23.98K
0
0.00
+24K
+$24K
3-6 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
6-9 Months
4.0K
65.64K
0
0.00
+66K
+$66K
9-12 Months
15.8K
229.91K
12.8K
204.37K
+26K
+$26K
Top Buyers
Ahern Kevin
Director
$100K
Magnesen Larry S
Director
$66K
Samuels Michele Annette
Director
$30K
Blackhurst Eric P.
Director
$30K
Walker Brian C
Director
$29K
Top Sellers
Kerber Lynn
Officer: Evp & Scco
$70K
Secor Mark E
Officer: Executive Vice President
$68K
Prame Thomas M
Officer: Chief Executive Officer
$67K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Moderately bullish with $115K net buying. Insiders show cautious optimism through measured share purchases.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Positive buy/sell ratio. Buying exceeds or matches selling, indicating net positive insider sentiment.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Very strong recent buying momentum. Recent insider purchases significantly outpace sales, suggesting near-term optimism.
Insider Participation
5 insider buyers vs. 3 sellers. More insiders buying than selling indicates positive sentiment.
Insider Activity Insight
Broad-based insider buying: When multiple insiders independently decide to purchase shares, it often reflects genuine confidence rather than coordinated optics. This pattern deserves attention, especially if buying followed a price decline.
hbnc Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on HBNC by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.