Green Plains Inc.
$15.08
-6.6%Green Plains Inc. produces, markets, and distributes ethanol in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Ethanol Production, Agribusiness and Energy Services, and Partnership. The Ethanol Production segment produces and sells ethanol, including industrial-grade alcohol, distiller grains, and ultra-high protein and corn oil. The Agribusiness and Energy Services segment engages in the grain procurement, handling, and storage activities; and commodity marketing business, which purchases, markets, sells, and distributes ethanol, distiller grains, and ultra-high protein and corn oil, as well as grain, natural gas, and other commodities in various markets. This segment also provides grain drying and storage services to grain producers. The Partnership segment offers fuel storage and transportation services. As of December 31, 2021, it operated through 29 ethanol storage facilities; 4 fuel terminal facilities; and a fleet of approximately 2,300 leased railcars. The company was formerly known as Green Plains Renewable Energy, Inc. and changed its name to Green Plains Inc. in May 2014. Green Plains Inc. was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -8.4).
Valuation inputs: P/E -8.4, earnings yield N/A, momentum -6.6%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -15.8%, ROIC -4.3%).
Profitability stack: net margin -5.8%, ROE -15.8%, ROIC -4.3%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +51.1%, momentum -6.6%, net margin -5.8%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Green Plains Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Green Plains Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Green Plains Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Thin margins leave little room for error. Cost management and pricing strategy are critical.
Operating Margin
Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Green Plains Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.
CapEx Intensity
Moderate capital requirements typical of many stable businesses. Healthy balance between reinvestment and cash generation.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Green Plains Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Strong liquidity. The company has adequate resources to meet short-term liabilities.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Elevated leverage. Debt exceeds equity, which amplifies both gains and risks. Monitor debt servicing ability.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Green Plains Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that GPRE stock may experience modest gains over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 16.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 12.00 to a high of 20.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 16.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 12.00 to a high of 20.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Moderate upside. Analysts expect positive returns but with limited margin of safety. Consider entry timing.
Analyst Agreement
Mixed analyst views. Wide target range suggests differing opinions on key value drivers, growth prospects, or risk factors.
Risk-Reward Profile
Balanced risk-reward. Upside and downside potential relatively symmetric. Suitable for moderate risk tolerance with conviction in thesis.
Analyst Conviction
Neutral sentiment. Fair value pricing with moderate agreement suggests wait-and-see approach or catalyst-driven opportunity.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
Green Plains Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $489K and sold $300K worth of GPRE shares, resulting in $189K of net buying activity.
3 Months
6.4K
101.30K
0
0.00
+101K
+$101K
3-6 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
6-9 Months
0
0.00
31.6K
300.23K
-300K
-$300K
9-12 Months
39.0K
387.59K
0
0.00
+388K
+$388K
Top Buyers
Simpkins G Patrich Jr
Officer: Ceo Fluid Quip
$388K
Sweeney Patrick Francis
Director
$101K
Top Sellers
Mapes Michelle
Officer: Chief Legal And Admin Officer
$294K
Herbert James F Ii
Officer: Chief Human Resources Officer
$6K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Moderately bullish with $189K net buying. Insiders show cautious optimism through measured share purchases.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Positive buy/sell ratio. Buying exceeds or matches selling, indicating net positive insider sentiment.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Very strong recent buying momentum. Recent insider purchases significantly outpace sales, suggesting near-term optimism.
Insider Participation
2 insider buyers and 2 sellers. Equal participation suggests mixed or neutral insider views.
Insider Activity Insight
Sustained buying momentum: Consistent net buying over multiple quarters suggests insiders maintain conviction in the company's prospects. This is particularly meaningful if buying continued through market volatility.
gpre Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on GPRE by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.