GOGO - NASDAQ

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Q3 2023 Gogo Inc. Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers’ presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today’s conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Will Davis, VP of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Thank you, Bella, and good morning everyone. Welcome to Gogo’s third quarter 2023 earnings conference call. Joining me today to talk about our results are Oakleigh Thorne, Chairman and CEO; and Jessi Betjemann, Executive Vice President and CFO. Before we get started, I would like to take this opportunity to remind you that during the course of this call, we may make forward-looking statements regarding future events and the future performance of the company. We caution you to consider the risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements on the conference call. Those risk factors are described in our earnings release filed this morning and are more fully detailed under our risk factors in our annual report on 10-K and 10-Q and other documents that we have filed with the SEC. In addition, please note that the date of this conference call is November 7, 2023. Any forward-looking statements that we make today are based on assumptions as of this date. We undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of more information or future events. During the call, we will present both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. We have included a reconciliation and explanation of adjustments and other considerations of our non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP measures in our third quarter earnings release. This call is being broadcast on the Internet and available on the Investor Relations website at ir.gogoair.com. The earnings press release is also available on the website. After management comments, we will host a Q&A session with the financial community only. It is now my great pleasure to turn the call over to Oakleigh.

Thanks, Will. And welcome to our Q3 2023 earnings call. Gogo achieved solid bottomline results in the third quarter, despite aviation industry headwinds and a slowing of orders as customers await the launch of Gogo 5G and Galileo, both of which will reaccelerate our growth starting in the second half of 2024. On the positive side, several of the headwinds I discussed last quarter, like suspensions and deactivations, which are mostly temporary in nature, have started to normalize, and in fact, we achieved the highest third quarter ever for new activations. On the flipside, supply chain issues and labor shortages continue to impact our OEM and aftermarket partners, delaying new aircraft deliveries and extending maintenance cycles, which in turn have reduced equipment revenue and slowed the growth of service revenue for Gogo. Despite that, we have maintained our profitability levels partly due to our shift to 5G investment dollars to 2024 and partly due to strong cost management. As a result, we are lowering our revenue guidance for 2023, but raising guidance for adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow to the high end of our prior ranges. The change in guidance is very disappointing. These near-term headwinds do not change our view that Gogo is poised for explosive growth in 2025 and beyond, and we are not changing our long-term targets. First, we serve highly unpenetrated market, with 78% of the world’s business aircraft flying without a broadband solution today. Second, we see unprecedented demand with a surge of travelers choosing to fly private aviation post-COVID and those travelers demanding connectivity. Third, we have an attractive business model based on recurring service revenue that drives strong cash flow. Fourth, we are incorporating new technologies into our platform to deliver order of magnitude improvements in service, to dramatically increase our TAM by having products that meet the needs of every segment of the global BA market and to enhance our competitive position. And finally, we have a strong balance sheet that enables us to make the investments necessary to deliver those new technologies. The price for reaching that explosive growth and driving substantial returns for shareholders is a heavy investment cycle we are now in, to build Gogo 5G, develop Gogo Galileo and execute the FCC rip and replacement project, all of which I will deep dive in a few minutes. This morning, I am going to start by highlighting the demand we see in the BA market, I will then go through the data from the quarter and I will close by touching on Gogo’s progress against our key strategic initiatives. Jessi will then walk through the numbers and the rationale behind our guidance update. So let me start with industry demand. Industry observers typically use flight count as a proxy for private aviation demand, and in Q3, Gogo flight counts were down only 2% from the very high accounts in 2022, which is an improvement from the 5% decline we experienced in Q2. More importantly, flight counts remain significantly elevated from pre-COVID 2019 at plus 28%, signaling to many in the industry the stronger demand is here to stay. Those numbers are supported by the surge in OEM order books and then the sale of fractional ownerships that we have seen over the past few years. Meanwhile, data usage per flight hour for Q3 increased 15% over Q3 2022 and increased 77% from Q3 2019. In global market research conducted by Gogo, when offered all current and currently announced IFC offerings from Gogo and its competitors, 74% of all business aviation industry participants will opt to add connectivity to those aircraft today. That stands in stark contrast to broadband connectivity in the global fleet, which stands at only 23%. Some of this demand is driven by a generational shift and who is flying. Among the silent generation of older flyers, only 65% would opt for connectivity, among baby boomers that goes up to 78% and Gen X and Y that goes up to 87%, and for Gen

Thanks, Oak, and good morning, everyone. Gogo delivered solid bottomline financial performance, as we continued to invest in our strategic and operational initiative, including Gogo 5G and Gogo Galileo, to enhance our competitive position for the future. In my remarks today, I will start by walking through Gogo’s third quarter financial performance, then I will turn to our balance sheet and capital allocation priorities, next I will provide an overview of the financial impact of the FCC program, and finally, I will provide additional context around our revised 2023 outlook and wrap up by reiterating our long-term targets. Total revenue for the third quarter was $97.9 million, down 7% from the prior year and down 5% sequentially. We delivered record service revenue of $79.5 million in the third quarter, a 6% increase year-over-year and a 1% increase sequentially. Our ATG aircraft online reached 7,150 units as of the end of the third quarter, representing 6% growth versus the prior year and 1% growth sequentially. While Gogo is showing improvement in incremental ATG aircraft online from 18 units in the second quarter to 86 units in the third quarter, these remain muted due to temporary suspensions, driven by elongated maintenance cycles, which took aircraft offline. In addition, we had record upgrades in the third quarter, and while strategically important, it also contributed to the muted aircraft online growth as it replaces existing aircraft online. AVANCE aircraft online grew to 3,784 and now comprise 53% of our total fleet, up from 45% last year. Increasing aircraft online with the penetration of our AVANCE products remains critical to Gogo’s strategy both in the North American market and globally, as we prepare for Gogo 5G and Galileo. As we mentioned last quarter, we continue to expect the AVANCE aircraft online growth rate to accelerate over the next several quarters, as maintenance events start to return to normal levels, reducing suspension time and dealers work on addressing supply chain issues that are contributing to slower installation rates. Total ATG ARPA of $3,373, slightly increased sequentially and slightly decreased versus the prior year, driven by a shift in product mix. We anticipate a launch of Gogo 5G and Galileo next year will further expand our ARPA growth opportunity over time, partially offset by continued L3 sales into smaller aircraft, and lower priced data plans to drive incremental revenue growth down market. Now turning to equipment revenue. Gogo generated $18.4 million in equipment revenue in the third quarter, a 39% decrease year-over-year and a 24% decrease sequentially, as AVANCE equipment unit shipped decreased to 192 units in the third quarter. As Oak noted, the decrease in AVANCE equipment unit shipped largely reflects the impact of lingering inventory in the channel, shift in OEM orders for 2024, as well as delays in customer purchases as they wait for the expected launch of Gogo 5G and Galileo in 2024. Gogo remains confident that our strong position in the global market, that is only 22% penetrated with inflight connectivity, coupled with the expected launch of Gogo 5G in Q3 2024 and Gogo Galileo in the second half of next year, we will continue to propel our equipment sales in the future. Turning to profitability. Gogo delivered service margins of 77% in the third quarter, which remains flat compared to the prior year quarter. We continue to expect long-term service margins in the 75%-plus range, positioning service as the primary lever for free cash flow generation and long-term value creation. Equipment margins were 33% in the third quarter, 3 percentage points lower than prior year period and 6 percentage points higher sequentially. The increase in our equipment margin compared to last quarter was primarily due to an accrual of $2.8 million for the expected FCC reimbursement of costs incurred to replace a large number of EVDO aircards and AVANCE equipped aircraft with dual modem aircards. Out of the $2.8 million accrual, $0.8 million related to Q3 shipments, while $2 million was related to prior quarter’s activity back to 2022. The positive impact of the accrual for expected FCC reimbursement was partially offset by an increase in production costs as a percentage of revenue due to lower equipment revenue in the quarter. We expect Q4 equivalent margin to decline as there is no catch-up accrual for the FCC reimbursement. Moving on to operating expenses. Third quarter combined engineering design and development, sales and marketing, and general and administrative expenses of $25.5 million, declined slightly year-over-year and decreased 3% on a sequential basis. Our operating expenses decreased sequentially primarily due to lower marketing-related costs. Gogo continues to expect 2024 will be a significant investment year, as we complete our Gogo 5G program and ramp spending for Gogo Galileo. We expect to see the benefit of these investments through sustained strong topline growth and an inflection point in our free cash flow growth in 2025 and beyond in our core operating business. In terms of Gogo 5G, in the third quarter, our $1.8 million of 5G spending was comprised of $0.5 million in OpEx and $1.3 million in CapEx. As Oak mentioned, Gogo is working with our 5G network and chipset suppliers to resolve the 5G chip issue and we now expect the commercial launch of Gogo 5G to take place in Q3 2024. We maintain our estimate of $100 million in total cost for our 5G program, but the delay would push approximately $10 million of CapEx and $7 million of OpEx from our original plans in 2023 into 2024. Gogo expect this delay to dampen revenue, EBITDA and free cash flow in 2024. Now onto our Gogo Galileo initiative. In the third quarter, Gogo recorded $2.6 million in operating expenses related to Gogo Galileo and $6.6 million year-to-date. We continue to expect external development costs for Gogo Galileo to be less than $50 million in total, of which $10 million will be incurred in 2023 and approximately $30 million in 2024. We anticipate approximately 90% of Gogo Galileo’s external development costs will be in OpEx. Moving onto our bottomline, Gogo’s third quarter adjusted EBITDA of $43.2 million, stayed relatively flat year-over-year. EBITDA margin expanded to 44.1%, up 140 basis points from last quarter and up approximately 300 basis points year-over-year, as we had growth and high margin service revenue, while maintaining strong cost control. Gogo delivered net income of $20.9 million in the third quarter, up 4% year-over-year, translating to $0.16 in basic and diluted earnings per share. As a reminder, last quarter we reported net income that included an income tax benefit of $63.8 million due to the partial release of the valuation allowance on our deferred tax assets related to the Section 163(j) interest limitation carried forward. As of December 31, 2022, Gogo had $562 million in federal net operating losses, $448 million in state net operating losses and $292 million in Section 163(j) interest limitation carry forwards. As a reminder, our financial statements reflect non-cash income tax expense as we continue to generate positive pre-tax income. Based on our substantial NOL position, we do not expect to pay meaningful cash taxes for an extended period. But we may pay a modest amount by the end of our five-year planning horizon. In addition, our shareholders’ rights plan that is designed to preserve NOLs expired in September. The shareholder rights plan was not renewed as changes in the shareholder base over a three-year period have lapsed. Thus we still have access to our large NOL positioned, but new shareholders are no longer restricted from purchasing over 5% of the outstanding shares of Gogo common equity. In the third quarter, we generated $21 million in free cash flow, up $12.5 million versus prior year primarily due to lower 5G CapEx. Free cash flow is also up $7.7 million sequentially, largely due to lower interest paid this quarter as we switched to a monthly cadence of interest payments on our term loan resulting in five months of interest paid in the second quarter. Now I will turn to a discussion of our balance sheet. We ended the quarter with $110.8 million in cash and short-term investments and $608.7 million in outstanding principal on our term loan, with our $100 million revolver remaining undrawn. Gogo’s net leverage was slightly lower to 2.9 times in line with our target range of 2.5 times to 3.5 times. As we previously mentioned, we have a hedge agreement in place and we currently have 86% of our loans hedged. The next step down in the hedge to $350 million occurs in July 2024 with increase in strike rate from 0.75% to 1.25%. As a reminder, Gogo’s capital allocation priorities remain unchanged and are aligned with our strategic goals and include; first, maintaining adequate liquidity; second, investing in strategic opportunities to drive competitive positioning and financial value including Gogo 5G and Galileo; third, maintaining an appropriate level of leverage for the economic environment with a target net leverage ratio of 2.5 times to 3.5 times; and finally, returning capital to shareholders as appropriate in the future. With a strong cash balance our Gogo 5G, Galileo and other strategic projects well-funded and our net leverage ratio at 2.9 times including the $100 million debt pay down earlier this year and our strong confidence in the business, we were comfortable moving to priority for in returning capital to shareholders. Our Board of Directors approved a share repurchase program in September with no set expiration date that grant authority to repurchase up to $50 million of shares of common stock. This gives us the ability to opportunistically repurchase shares, when we find that doing so offers an attractive value proposition. However, we need to continue to balance the use of cash over the next year across our capital allocation priorities, and especially in allocating funds between further pay down of debt considering high interest rates and the step down in our hedge and future share repurchases. I would now like to provide an update on the expected financial impact of the FCC Secure and Trusted Communication Networks Reimbursement program. As Oak mentioned, we are encouraged that the White House recently issued a supplemental funding request that includes a call to Congress to fully fund the FCC program, which will significantly increase our total reimbursement value as we granted -- as we were granted up to $334 million. As mentioned in previous quarters, we currently expect to receive partial funding of $132 million. As a reminder, we submitted our first claim in July, which triggered the start of the one-year clock to complete the program by July 21, 2024. In our application, we stated that we will need to have multiple extensions to complete the program and are waiting to see if that FCC will grant a blanket extension or we will request an extension in the coming months on our own. Gogo has incurred and will continue to incur costs for this program in three areas; first, network equipment for cell sites and datacenters; second airborne equipment for the swaps of LTE aircards to replace EVDO aircards and partial rebates for customers’ installation cost to enable existing customer aircraft to communicate to the new network; and third, operating expenses primarily for flight testing, network design and professional services. We expect to spend that will be partially offset by the FCC reimbursements. As of September 30th, we recorded a $16.2 million receivable from the FCC, which is included in prepaid expenses and other current assets in our balance sheet for the reimbursement of the cost, I previously mentioned. With corresponding reductions to property and equipment inventory and contract assets and with the pickup in the income statement. Going forward, since the program is currently partially funded, we have some optionality in what we request reimbursement for which could impact when grant money received would be recorded between the income statement and balance sheets. Previously Gogo expected 2023 and 2024 free cash flow to be negatively impacted by the FCC progress and the benefit in 2025 due to the timing of reimbursement proceeds. However, we are currently seeing reimbursements in quicker than expected, potentially changing the swing effect on free cash flow over the years. For example, in 2023, we expect to spend approximately $20 million for the FCC program and recoup approximately $2 million in cash reimbursements, but with the reduced lag and the reimbursement process we could receive more this year. Nonetheless, the partial funding reimbursements are expected to be short of the total expected cost of the program through 2026. Turning to our financial outlook, Gogo updated its fiscal 2023 financial guidance to reflect current market dynamics. Gogo now expect 2023 total revenue to be in the range of $390 million to $400 million. The decrease is driven by a reduction in our equipment revenue, which was largely affected by shift in OEM orders to 2024 and a delay in customer orders as they wait for the expected launch of Gogo 5G and Galileo, as I noted earlier. We now expect 2023 adjusted EBITDA to be in the high-end of our previously guided $150 million to $160 million range. We were able to increase adjusted EBITDA guidance despite lower revenue, as we continue to prudently manage costs down as well as push out additional 5G spend due to the delay. This guidance includes spending on operating expenses of approximately $15 million compared to $20 million previously for strategic and operational initiatives, which include approximately $3 million and expected Gogo 5G spending, approximately $10 million of Gogo Galileo development spend and approximately $2 million in additional operational initiatives. Adjusted EBITDA guidance also includes approximately $7 million of costs related to the FCC program offset by $6 million of accruals for the expected FCC reimbursements. We now expect our 2023 CapEx to be in the range of $25 million to $30 million including $12 million for the Gogo 5G program and approximately $2 million related to the FCC program. We also now expect our 2023 free cash flow guidance to be in the high-end of the previously guided range of $60 million to $70 million, including FCC related spend and the expected lag of FCC reimbursements. Even with our investments in strategic initiatives and the FCC program we expect nearly 20% year-over-year free cash flow growth in 2023 and excluding the FCC impact it would be nearly 50%. As we previously stated 2024 will continue to be an investment year with an increase in Gogo Galileo expenses anticipated for further burdened due to the push out of 5G spend. These investments coupled with the lower shipments and aircraft online this year versus our original expectations and delay in 5G launch are expected to negatively impact our financials causing 2024 to be a tough free cash flow year. However, Gogo’s long-term targets for me hasn’t changed. They reflect our expectations for the launch of Gogo 5G in Q3 2024 and the launch of Google Galileo in the second half of 2024. We reiterate revenue growth at a compound annual growth rate of approximately 15% to 17% from 2022 through 2027. We continue to expect annual adjusted EBITDA margin in the mid-40% range by 2027 and free cash flow in the range of $150 million to $200 million in 2025 without the effect of the FCC program and growing thereafter. We plan to provide 2024 guidance metrics and update our long-term targets as appropriate on the fourth quarter earnings call as we typically do. In conclusion, we will continue to deliver solid bottom line financial performance and we are committed to creating long-term value for our shareholders and customers. Before we open the call up to questions, I would like to join Oak in thanking our entire team for their continued commitment to Gogo and providing unparalleled service to our customers. Operator, this concludes our prepared remarks, we are now ready for your first question.

[Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from the line of Richard Prentiss with Raymond James. Your line is now open.

Hey. Good morning, everybody.

Good morning Ric.

Ric.

Hi.

Appreciate all the details. I want to probe into first the competition side, as we have talked a little bit about testing your offers versus others. It’s not on the BA side but interesting the Hughes announcing the Delta version of jet contract. I am wondering if you are thinking of others start coming into the BA space as well and then maybe an update on the SmartSky lawsuit, if there’s been any changes?

Yeah. So I mean the Delta Hughes deal is a large antenna GEO product at this point. So they are using the ThinKom 1717 antenna set which is about 5 feet long. It’s not a BA aircraft type of antenna, and it’s not ESA and it does not use LEO satellites at present. I think it’s Ka which is important. It’s really meant to be a way for Hughes to sell Jupiter capacity. So there are partner, this is consistent with our agreements and we have no issue with that at all. Second, you were -- I think you asking about potential entrants?

Yeah.

Yeah. I think our confidence against potential entrants has really grown. We spent a lot of time over the summer doing a lot of detailed market research and surveys around the world, and we did those on a branded and on an unbranded basis and the top four offers were always Gogo. Our really cheap L3 product, the 5G product for North American flyers generally medium-size jets on down they want higher capacity and then the FDX and HDX for planes flying outside the U.S. or medium size jets in the U.S. who want higher capacity and then FDX for the global transcoms. And so that gave us added confidence that we are developing the right products, we have the right service, we are looking at the right price points, the right coverage. And our whole strategy is to understand the complexities of this pretty small vertical, the fact that there is a lot of different segments that have different needs and be able to create -- take advantage or understanding all those different segments and create the right product, the right coverage, the right cost, et cetera for each of those segments. So we feel very good about that. Most people worry about Starlink coming in. I think, they are trying to find their way. They keep changing their mind about what they are going to do, and of course, that just doesn’t resonate very well with the business aviation market which has long lead times and where people want very steady partners that they know they can trust to actually deliver products -- service products, et cetera. So we feel good about that. And then the last question was on the SmartSky litigation. There’s still no decision in their appeal of the lower court denial of a temporary injunction and we view that as a good sign, because it’s been close to half a year now, since that was heard and if the court really felt that there was an urgent need to grant an injunction one believes they would have granted that by now, because when asking for a temporary injunction when asked to sort of circuit time of the essence. So we feel good about that. And the general trial, which was to come later, I believe that goes to trial in April of 2025 or August of 2025, I can’t remember which month it was, so that’s still a ways out and there will be a lot of Markman hearings and all that over the next year or so, so that will go into discovery and it will be time consuming and somewhat expensive process.

Okay. I just want to make sure I also understand the 5G, Galileo operating initiatives. Jessi, I think you said the $15 million impact OpEx-wise and 2023 is like $3 million for 5G, $10 million for Galileo and $2 million for others, the 2024 Galileo looks like it’s going to be $30 million. Is the 5G is that just $7 million, is that gap push out, I was just trying to think about the total 2024 impact is to compare to the $15 million EBITDA impact for those three items?

Yeah. So, Galileo, as you mentioned you have that right. It’s expected to be around $30 million -- approximately $30 million next year. 5G, so we pushed out $7 million of OpEx from this year to next year, but -- so we are expecting $7 million in OpEx next year and then for CapEx we are expecting that to be more like $14 million. So we pushed out $10 million from CapEx this year to next year, but we had originally planned to have a little bit of additional CapEx next year. So total of $14 next year. So 5G spend in total will be $20 million next year.

Okay. And then last one for me is, and obviously, the balance sheet is strong, the bottomline you have been working through that. How much cash do you want to keep on the balance sheet to run the business as we think about all the different components you are looking at and also obviously the FCC reimbursement?

Yeah. So we would like to be fairly conservative on this. I mean, I think, the range is around 50% to 75%, which is higher than what we would need to run the business, but we would like to be conservative. So when we talk about…

Make sense.

… maintaining adequate liquidity, that’s usually the amount that we are keeping in mind.

Makes sense. Thanks a lot for answering the questions.

One moment for your next question. And your next question comes from the line of Lance Vitanza with TD Cowen. Your line is now open.

Hi. Thanks guys. Thanks for taking my questions. Just a couple around the new product launches, first on 5G. What are the milestones that you can point us to that would help us get more comfortable around the certainty, if not the exact timing of this launch? I mean what specifically needs to happen between here and there?

Right. So I tried to run through some of those in the call. I’d say, the first would be the chip factory going into production in the foundry, as that service, the clock starts then. I would say, second would be, our delivery and late Q1 of the FPGA technology to us, because that sort of new 50-megahertz capacity FPGA version of the chip, we will be able to burn down a lot of risk. We will be flying that in Q2 and because it’s an exact software replication of the chip, we can burn down all software integration risk, we can burn down all integration testing across the network risk. So those are very significant. The only thing -- the only risk we cannot burn down with that is, an issue in the 5G chip from a hardware perspective, that you have to test it after it comes off the foundry. And then later dates would be, when that chip comes off the foundry, and then when we take delivery, because as I said, bring up process between it coming off the foundry and being delivered to us and then our start of flight testing. I think those are the major milestones.

That’s really helpful. And how long does the flight testing component take what would you expect?

We start testing flying the whole network, it takes about two months, but once we have the chip, but we will burn down most of the risk around flight testing and fine-tuning of the FPGA.

Right. I am not so much worried about the risk, as I am just trying to think about the timeframe and calibrating there but that’s helpful. And then just sort of related question, I guess, with the Galileo launch, set to launch relatively quickly on the heels of the 5G launch, do we have to worry about the 5G launch being softer than expected or pressured by aircraft operators, basically saying, what, I was going to go with 5G, but now Galileo is going to be here in a couple of months, maybe I should hold off and wait for that?

Yeah. Look, it’s not ideal to have these two product launches land on top of each other and that wasn’t the design as you well know, we were going to originally have 5G out last year. But I think that, we don’t see a conflict, because we don’t see -- we see these products is being positioned at very different segments of the market and while the delays have sort of confused that communication, I think, we are starting to see it get straightened out. The 5G is really aimed at North American market, because that’s its coverage, it’s aimed at those sort of medium size jets on down that want a really good product but are still somewhat cost conscious, right? They want an affordable product and 5G will be cheaper than any satellite product. The HDX is aimed at sort of medium-size jets on down the outside the U.S. and those planes today have no connectivity option whatsoever, no broadband connectivity option, whatsoever. And medium-size jets on down that fly outside the U.S. like to the Caribbean or Canada or Mexico, et cetera, Hawaii, which is in the U.S., of course, but it is over a large piece of ocean. So that’s where that’s aimed. And then the FDX is a heavy jet product, and that’s for, the big jets that either fly around the U.S. and a lot of connectivity or fly transcontinental routes and it’s going to be more aiming probably at the transcontinental space. So they are very different segments and we are trying to be very clear with the market in terms of communicating which products should be the right products for each segment.

Thanks very much, I appreciate your help.

Yeah. Yeah. Thanks.

One moment for the next question. And your next question comes from the line of Scott Searle with ROTH MKM. Your line is now open.

Hey. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I appreciate all the detail. And maybe, Oak, just to dive in quickly in terms of the maintenance events, engine part availability, et cetera, that has been delaying AOL. The last quarter shipments for ATG units were down pretty significantly, I think, they are about 100 units below where it had averaged over the last six quarters or so. It sounds like despite that you are having record activations and you are starting to see a pickup in terms of suspension going away in the month of October. And I believe you indicated as well that there are only about 40 units in the channel that are unspoken for. So implied in the fourth quarter guidance is another weak ATG unit quarter. So the question is, as we get into 2024, are we completely burned down in normalized in terms of channel inventory and that balance now with prolongated maintenance events, but now that’s starting to work its way through the channel, we start to see a re-acceleration both of ATG units being shipped and AOL aircraft starting to ramp back up again?