Geron Corporation
$1.17
-0.85%Geron Corporation, a late-stage clinical biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of therapeutics for myeloid hematologic malignancies. It develops imetelstat, a telomerase inhibitor that is in Phase 3 clinical trials, which inhibits the uncontrolled proliferation of malignant stem and progenitor cells in hematologic myeloid malignancies for the treatment of low or intermediate-1 risk myelodysplastic syndromes and intermediate-2 or high-risk myelofibrosis. The company was incorporated in 1990 and is headquartered in Foster City, California.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -10.3).
Valuation inputs: P/E -10.3, earnings yield N/A, momentum -0.9%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -38.0%, ROIC -11.3%).
Profitability stack: net margin -46.7%, ROE -38.0%, ROIC -11.3%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +60.4%, momentum -0.9%, net margin -46.7%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Geron Corporation Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Geron Corporation Fair Value Envelope
Geron Corporation Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Profitability Insight
Margin squeeze alert: Healthy gross margins but weak operating margins suggest excessive operating expenses. Cost optimization could unlock significant value.
Geron Corporation Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Significant working capital drain. Growth may be consuming cash through inventory buildup or receivables extension—monitor closely.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Exceptional cash generation: High-quality earnings converting to growing free cash flow. The company demonstrates strong pricing power, efficient operations, and disciplined capital allocation.
Geron Corporation Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Elevated leverage. Debt exceeds equity, which amplifies both gains and risks. Monitor debt servicing ability.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Asset-light business model with high liquidity. Majority of assets are easily convertible to cash.
Financial Health Insight
Mixed signals: Strong short-term liquidity provides comfort, but high overall leverage requires careful monitoring of debt servicing capabilities and refinancing risk.
Geron Corporation Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that GERN stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 5.89, with estimates ranging from a low of 4.00 to a high of 8.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 5.89, with estimates ranging from a low of 4.00 to a high of 8.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
High uncertainty. Very wide target spread indicates significant disagreement among analysts—major valuation uncertainty or transformation underway.
Analyst Conviction
High uncertainty: Wide dispersion indicates analysts struggle to agree on valuation—proceed with caution and independent analysis.
Market Sentiment Insight
High risk, high reward: Substantial upside potential exists, but wide analyst disagreement signals execution risk or unclear catalysts. Thorough due diligence essential before committing capital.
Geron Corporation Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $3.81M and sold $19K worth of GERN shares, resulting in $3.79M of net buying activity.
3 Months
0
0.00
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+0
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3-6 Months
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0.00
9.9K
19.12K
-19K
-$19K
6-9 Months
3.0M
3.81M
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0.00
+3.8M
+$3.81M
9-12 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
Top Buyers
Elnawawi Ahmed
Officer: Evp, Chief Commercial Officer
$3.81M
Top Sellers
Robertson Michelle
Officer: Evp, Chief Financial Officer
$19K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bullish signal with $3.79M net buying. Insiders are aggressively accumulating shares, suggesting significant confidence in future prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Exceptional buy/sell ratio. Buying dramatically outweighs selling—one of the strongest possible insider signals.
Insider Participation
1 insider buyers and 1 sellers. Equal participation suggests mixed or neutral insider views.
No Dividend Yield Data
GERN has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
gern Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on GERN by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.