Great Elm Capital Corp.
$6.08
-2.6%Great Elm Capital Corp. is a business development company which specializes in loan and mezzanine, middle market investments. It invests in the debt instruments of middle market companies. The fund prefers to invest in media, commercial services and supplies, healthcare, telecommunication services, communications equipment. It typically makes equity investments between $3 million and $10 million in companies with revenues between $3 million and $75 million.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -2.4).
Valuation inputs: P/E -2.4, earnings yield N/A, momentum -2.6%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -28.1%, ROIC -4.2%).
Profitability stack: net margin -71.5%, ROE -28.1%, ROIC -4.2%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +66.9%, momentum -2.6%, net margin -71.5%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Great Elm Capital Corp. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Great Elm Capital Corp. Fair Value Envelope
Great Elm Capital Corp. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Profitability Insight
Margin squeeze alert: Healthy gross margins but weak operating margins suggest excessive operating expenses. Cost optimization could unlock significant value.
Great Elm Capital Corp. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Cash flow concerns: Despite profitability, the company is burning cash. Review working capital management, CapEx levels, and sustainability of current operations.
Great Elm Capital Corp. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Elevated leverage. Debt exceeds equity, which amplifies both gains and risks. Monitor debt servicing ability.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Financial stress indicators: Both liquidity and leverage metrics raise concerns. The company may face challenges meeting obligations and should focus on strengthening its balance sheet.
Great Elm Capital Corp. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that GECC stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 11.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 11.00 to a high of 11.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 11.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 11.00 to a high of 11.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Analyst Conviction
Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.
Market Sentiment Insight
Rare opportunity: Exceptional upside potential with strong analyst consensus creates a compelling setup. The combination of significant price target premium and tight agreement suggests high-conviction undervaluation that may attract institutional capital.
Great Elm Capital Corp. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $326K and sold $3.41M worth of GECC shares, resulting in $3.08M of net selling activity.
3 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
3-6 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
6-9 Months
19.6K
150.13K
101.8K
1.17M
-1.0M
-$1.02M
9-12 Months
16.0K
175.66K
202.6K
2.24M
-2.1M
-$2.07M
Top Buyers
Cohen Richard M
Director
$156K
Kaplan Matthew D
Officer: Ceo And President
$150K
Perry Chad
Director
$20K
Top Sellers
Great Elm Strategic Partnership I, Llc
10 Percent Owner
$3.27M
Kaplan Matthew D
Officer: Ceo And President
$94K
Davis Keri
Officer: Cfo
$31K
Kleinman Adam M
Officer: Cco And Secretary
$16K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $3.08M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Insider Participation
4 insider sellers vs. 3 buyers. More insiders selling than buying suggests cautious or negative sentiment.
gecc Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on GECC by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.