GCM Grosvenor Inc.
$9.98
-7.2%GCM Grosvenor Inc. is global alternative asset management solutions provider. The firm primarily provides its services to pooled investment vehicles. It also provides its services to investment companies, high net worth individuals, pension and profit sharing plans and state or municipal government entities. The firm invests in equity and alternative investment markets of the United States and internationally. The firm invests in multi-strategy, credit-focused, equity-focused, macro-focused, commodity-focused, and other specialty portfolios. It focuses in hedge fund asset classes, private equity, real estate, and/or infrastructure, credit and absolute return strategies. It also focuses in primary fund investments, secondary fund investments, and co-investments with a focus on buyout, distressed debt, mezzanine, venture capital/growth equity investments. The firm seeks to do seed investments in small, emerging, and diverse private equity firms. The firm seeks to make regionally-focused investments in middle-market buyout. It prefers to invest in aerospace and defense, advanced electronics, information technology, biosciences, and advanced materials. It focuses on Ohio and the Midwest region. The firm employs fundamental and quantitative analysis. GCM Grosvenor Inc. was founded in 1971 and is based in Chicago, Illinois with additional offices in North America, Asia, Australia and Europe.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E 11.5).
Valuation inputs: P/E 11.5, earnings yield +8.7%, momentum -7.2%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is acceptable (ROE +1.7%, ROIC +20.4%).
Profitability stack: net margin +8.3%, ROE +1.7%, ROIC +20.4%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +84.3%, momentum -7.2%, net margin +8.3%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
GCM Grosvenor Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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GCM Grosvenor Inc. Fair Value Envelope
GCM Grosvenor Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Outstanding operational efficiency. The company generates substantial profit from core operations.
Net Profit Margin
Moderate profitability with room for improvement. Monitor interest expenses and tax efficiency.
Effective Tax Rate
Below-average tax rate suggests effective tax planning, favorable jurisdictions, or tax credits.
Profitability Insight
High margin compression: Large gap between gross and net margins suggests operational inefficiencies or heavy debt burden. Focus on expense management and deleveraging.
GCM Grosvenor Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Minimal working capital impact on FCF. Changes in operating assets and liabilities well-managed.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Exceptional cash generation: High-quality earnings converting to growing free cash flow. The company demonstrates strong pricing power, efficient operations, and disciplined capital allocation.
GCM Grosvenor Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
GCM Grosvenor Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that GCMG stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 18.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 18.00 to a high of 18.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 18.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 18.00 to a high of 18.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Analyst Conviction
Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.
Market Sentiment Insight
Rare opportunity: Exceptional upside potential with strong analyst consensus creates a compelling setup. The combination of significant price target premium and tight agreement suggests high-conviction undervaluation that may attract institutional capital.
GCM Grosvenor Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $1.42M worth of GCMG shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
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3-6 Months
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121.2K
1.42M
-1.4M
-$1.42M
6-9 Months
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9-12 Months
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Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Bentley Pamela L
Officer: Chief Financial Officer
$929K
Blanton Angela
Director
$489K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $1.42M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Insider Participation
2 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
gcmg Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on GCMG by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.