Freshpet, Inc.
$50.00
+1.2%Freshpet, Inc. manufactures and markets natural fresh meals and treats for dogs and cats in the United States, Canada, and Europe. The company sells its products under the Freshpet brand; and Dognation and Dog Joy labels through various classes of retail, including grocery, mass, club, pet specialty, and natural, as well as online. Freshpet, Inc. was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Secaucus, New Jersey.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is mid-range (P/E 17.5).
Valuation inputs: P/E 17.5, earnings yield +5.7%, momentum +1.2%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is acceptable (ROE +11.5%, ROIC +5.6%).
Profitability stack: net margin +12.6%, ROE +11.5%, ROIC +5.6%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile looks controlled across current risk inputs.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +32.0%, momentum +1.2%, net margin +12.6%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Freshpet, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Freshpet, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Freshpet, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Strong gross margins indicate healthy pricing and efficient production or service delivery.
Operating Margin
Acceptable margins but limited operational leverage. Operating expense control is important.
Net Profit Margin
Strong net margins indicate efficient operations and favorable tax/interest management.
Effective Tax Rate
Below-average tax rate suggests effective tax planning, favorable jurisdictions, or tax credits.
Profitability Insight
Margin squeeze alert: Healthy gross margins but weak operating margins suggest excessive operating expenses. Cost optimization could unlock significant value.
Freshpet, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Weak cash conversion. Significant portion of earnings not converting to cash—review working capital trends and capital intensity.
CapEx Intensity
Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Significant working capital drain. Growth may be consuming cash through inventory buildup or receivables extension—monitor closely.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Capital-intensive growth: Heavy reinvestment limits current cash available but may drive future returns. Assess whether CapEx supports compelling growth opportunities with adequate ROI.
Freshpet, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Conservative capital structure. The company relies primarily on equity financing, indicating low financial risk.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Strong financial foundation: Excellent liquidity combined with conservative leverage suggests the company is well-positioned to weather economic uncertainties and fund growth opportunities.
Freshpet, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that FRPT stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 77.33, with estimates ranging from a low of 60.00 to a high of 98.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 77.33, with estimates ranging from a low of 60.00 to a high of 98.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
Mixed analyst views. Wide target range suggests differing opinions on key value drivers, growth prospects, or risk factors.
Analyst Conviction
Neutral sentiment. Fair value pricing with moderate agreement suggests wait-and-see approach or catalyst-driven opportunity.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
Freshpet, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $645K and sold $6.60M worth of FRPT shares, resulting in $5.95M of net selling activity.
3 Months
5.1K
262.42K
109.6K
5.35M
-5.1M
-$5.09M
3-6 Months
630
49.80K
0
0.00
+50K
+$50K
6-9 Months
6.0K
332.31K
22.0K
1.25M
-917K
-$917K
9-12 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
Top Buyers
Mclevish Timothy R
Director
$342K
George Walter N.
Director
$212K
Kelley Jacki Sue
Director
$46K
Fajemirokun-Beck Olufunlayo Olurinde
Director
$20K
Brewster Daryl G
Director
$12K
Top Sellers
Cyr William B.
Director, Officer: Chief Executive Officer
$5.35M
Morris Scott James
Officer: President
$1.25M
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $5.95M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
5 insider buyers vs. 2 sellers. Broad-based buying across management team suggests widespread confidence.
Insider Activity Insight
Persistent selling pressure: Consistent insider selling with weak buy/sell ratio suggests insiders may be capitalizing on current valuation. Exercise caution and review recent earnings quality and management commentary.
No Dividend Yield Data
FRPT has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
frpt Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on FRPT by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.