Duolingo, Inc.
$107.40
+2.3%Duolingo, Inc. develops a language-learning website and mobile app in the United States and China. The company offers courses in 40 different languages, including Spanish, English, French, Japanese, German, Italian, Chinese, Portuguese, and others. It also provides a digital language proficiency assessment exam. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E 11.9).
Valuation inputs: P/E 11.9, earnings yield +8.4%, momentum +2.3%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is strong (ROE +30.7%, ROIC +9.4%).
Profitability stack: net margin +39.9%, ROE +30.7%, ROIC +9.4%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile looks controlled across current risk inputs.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +32.4%, momentum +2.3%, net margin +39.9%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Duolingo, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
Performance Analysis
EPS Growth
Strong earnings growth indicates robust business expansion and improving profitability.
Price-EPS Relationship
Earnings are growing but price is falling—potential undervaluation opportunity if growth continues.
Stock Price Change
Over the 1Y period, stock price has decreased by 79.3%.
P/E Ratio (TTM)
Relatively low P/E may indicate undervaluation or lower growth expectations.
Key Insight
Strong earnings growth (+258.2%) is outpacing price appreciation (+-79.3%), potentially indicating an attractive entry point as the market may not have fully recognized the improving fundamentals.
Duolingo, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Duolingo, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Acceptable margins but limited operational leverage. Operating expense control is important.
Net Profit Margin
Exceptional profitability. The company converts a significant portion of revenue to bottom-line earnings.
Effective Tax Rate
Below-average tax rate suggests effective tax planning, favorable jurisdictions, or tax credits.
Profitability Insight
Room for improvement: Moderate profitability with opportunities to enhance margins through better cost management or pricing strategy.
Duolingo, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Strong cash conversion. Most reported earnings translate into actual cash flow, suggesting solid fundamentals.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Asset-light with strong cash conversion: Low capital requirements combined with efficient cash generation creates significant shareholder value through dividends, buybacks, or strategic investments.
Duolingo, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Conservative capital structure. The company relies primarily on equity financing, indicating low financial risk.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Asset-light business model with high liquidity. Majority of assets are easily convertible to cash.
Financial Health Insight
Strong financial foundation: Excellent liquidity combined with conservative leverage suggests the company is well-positioned to weather economic uncertainties and fund growth opportunities.
Duolingo, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that DUOL stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 143.86, with estimates ranging from a low of 90.00 to a high of 245.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 143.86, with estimates ranging from a low of 90.00 to a high of 245.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
High uncertainty. Very wide target spread indicates significant disagreement among analysts—major valuation uncertainty or transformation underway.
Risk-Reward Profile
Favorable risk-reward. Potential upside significantly exceeds downside risk, offering asymmetric return profile attractive for risk-tolerant investors.
Analyst Conviction
High uncertainty: Wide dispersion indicates analysts struggle to agree on valuation—proceed with caution and independent analysis.
Market Sentiment Insight
High risk, high reward: Substantial upside potential exists, but wide analyst disagreement signals execution risk or unclear catalysts. Thorough due diligence essential before committing capital.
Duolingo, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $499K and sold $8.74M worth of DUOL shares, resulting in $8.24M of net selling activity.
3 Months
0
0.00
2.1K
236.62K
-237K
-$237K
3-6 Months
5.0K
498.79K
4.5K
498.40K
+392
+$392
6-9 Months
0
0.00
14.3K
3.01M
-3.0M
-$3.01M
9-12 Months
0
0.00
14.4K
4.99M
-5.0M
-$4.99M
Top Buyers
Shelton James H
Director
$499K
Top Sellers
Skaruppa Matthew
Officer: Chief Financial Officer
$2.35M
Hacker Severin
Director, 10 Percent Owner, Officer: Chief Tech Officer, Co-Founder
$1.97M
Glance Natalie
Officer: Chief Engineering Officer
$1.69M
Chen Stephen C.
Officer: General Counsel
$1.46M
Meese Robert
Officer: Chief Business Officer
$842K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $8.24M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 1 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
No Dividend Yield Data
DUOL has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
duol Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on DUOL by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.