Krispy Kreme, Inc.
$3.30
-1.5%Krispy Kreme, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates through an omni-channel business model to provide doughnut experiences and produce doughnuts. The company operates through three segments: U.S. and Canada, International, and Market Development. It also produces cookies, brownies, cookie cakes, ice cream, cookie-wiches, and cold milk, as well as doughnut mixes, other ingredients, and doughnut-making equipment. As of January 2, 2022, the company had 1,810 Krispy Kreme and Insomnia Cookies-branded shops in approximately 30 countries worldwide, which include 971 company owned and 839 franchised. It serves through doughnut shops, delivered fresh daily outlets, ecommerce, and delivery business. The company was formerly known as Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. and changed its name to Krispy Kreme, Inc. in May 2021. Krispy Kreme, Inc. was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -1.1).
Valuation inputs: P/E -1.1, earnings yield N/A, momentum -1.5%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE 0.0%, ROIC +10.6%).
Profitability stack: net margin -33.9%, ROE 0.0%, ROIC +10.6%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
Medium confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets N/A, momentum -1.5%, net margin -33.9%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Krispy Kreme, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Krispy Kreme, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Krispy Kreme, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Thin margins leave little room for error. Cost management and pricing strategy are critical.
Operating Margin
Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Profitability Insight
High margin compression: Large gap between gross and net margins suggests operational inefficiencies or heavy debt burden. Focus on expense management and deleveraging.
Krispy Kreme, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Weak cash conversion. Significant portion of earnings not converting to cash—review working capital trends and capital intensity.
CapEx Intensity
Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.
FCF Growth Trend
Steady FCF growth indicates consistent cash generation improvement. On a positive trajectory.
Working Capital Impact
Minimal working capital impact on FCF. Changes in operating assets and liabilities well-managed.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Working capital strain: Significant cash tied up in operations. Monitor receivables collection, inventory turns, and payment terms to optimize cash conversion cycle.
Krispy Kreme, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Financial stress indicators: Both liquidity and leverage metrics raise concerns. The company may face challenges meeting obligations and should focus on strengthening its balance sheet.
Krispy Kreme, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that DNUT stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 4.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 3.00 to a high of 6.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 4.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 3.00 to a high of 6.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
High uncertainty. Very wide target spread indicates significant disagreement among analysts—major valuation uncertainty or transformation underway.
Risk-Reward Profile
Favorable risk-reward. Potential upside significantly exceeds downside risk, offering asymmetric return profile attractive for risk-tolerant investors.
Analyst Conviction
High uncertainty: Wide dispersion indicates analysts struggle to agree on valuation—proceed with caution and independent analysis.
Market Sentiment Insight
High risk, high reward: Substantial upside potential exists, but wide analyst disagreement signals execution risk or unclear catalysts. Thorough due diligence essential before committing capital.
Krispy Kreme, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $769K and sold $41K worth of DNUT shares, resulting in $728K of net buying activity.
3 Months
225.1K
768.72K
0
0.00
+769K
+$769K
3-6 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
6-9 Months
0
0.00
10.3K
40.86K
-41K
-$41K
9-12 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
Top Buyers
Hees Bernardo
Director
$769K
Top Sellers
Zandhuis Terri
Officer: Chief People Officer
$30K
Esposito Joseph J
Officer: Chief Accounting Officer
$11K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bullish signal with $728K net buying. Insiders are aggressively accumulating shares, suggesting significant confidence in future prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Exceptional buy/sell ratio. Buying dramatically outweighs selling—one of the strongest possible insider signals.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Very strong recent buying momentum. Recent insider purchases significantly outpace sales, suggesting near-term optimism.
Insider Participation
2 insider sellers vs. 1 buyers. More insiders selling than buying suggests cautious or negative sentiment.
Insider Activity Insight
Sustained buying momentum: Consistent net buying over multiple quarters suggests insiders maintain conviction in the company's prospects. This is particularly meaningful if buying continued through market volatility.
dnut Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on DNUT by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.