Dropbox, Inc.
$27.59
-4.6%Dropbox, Inc. provides a content collaboration platform worldwide. Its platform allows individuals, families, teams, and organizations to collaborate and sign up for free through its website or app, as well as upgrade to a paid subscription plan for premium features. As of December 31, 2021, the company had approximately 700 million registered users. It serves customers in professional services, technology, media, education, industrial, consumer and retail, and financial services industries. The company was formerly known as Evenflow, Inc. and changed its name to Dropbox, Inc. in October 2009. Dropbox, Inc. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is mid-range (P/E 14.6).
Valuation inputs: P/E 14.6, earnings yield +6.8%, momentum -4.6%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -28.3%, ROIC +29.5%).
Profitability stack: net margin +20.2%, ROE -28.3%, ROIC +29.5%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +161.6%, momentum -4.6%, net margin +20.2%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Dropbox, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Dropbox, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Dropbox, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Outstanding operational efficiency. The company generates substantial profit from core operations.
Net Profit Margin
Exceptional profitability. The company converts a significant portion of revenue to bottom-line earnings.
Effective Tax Rate
Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.
Profitability Insight
Exceptional profitability across all levels: Strong pricing power, efficient operations, and healthy bottom line indicate a high-quality business with sustainable competitive advantages.
Dropbox, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Steady FCF growth indicates consistent cash generation improvement. On a positive trajectory.
Working Capital Impact
Minimal working capital impact on FCF. Changes in operating assets and liabilities well-managed.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Asset-light with strong cash conversion: Low capital requirements combined with efficient cash generation creates significant shareholder value through dividends, buybacks, or strategic investments.
Dropbox, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Acceptable liquidity, but monitor closely. Current assets just barely cover current liabilities.
Working Capital
Positive working capital, but relatively tight. The company should monitor cash flow carefully.
Asset Composition
Balanced asset mix between current and non-current assets, typical of many stable businesses.
Dropbox, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that DBX stock may see slight declines over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 26.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 23.00 to a high of 30.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 26.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 23.00 to a high of 30.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Fair value territory. Stock trading near consensus target suggests limited near-term catalysts. Focus on fundamental developments.
Analyst Agreement
Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.
Risk-Reward Profile
Unfavorable risk-reward. Downside risk exceeds upside potential. Consider defensive positioning or alternative opportunities.
Analyst Conviction
Neutral sentiment. Fair value pricing with moderate agreement suggests wait-and-see approach or catalyst-driven opportunity.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
Dropbox, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $41.51M worth of DBX shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
210.9K
5.18M
-5.2M
-$5.18M
3-6 Months
0
0.00
442.4K
11.48M
-11.5M
-$11.48M
6-9 Months
0
0.00
322.4K
9.65M
-9.6M
-$9.65M
9-12 Months
0
0.00
538.5K
15.20M
-15.2M
-$15.20M
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Houston Andrew
Director, 10 Percent Owner, Officer: Chief Executive Officer
$35.61M
Alkarmi Ashraf
Officer: General Manager, Core
$1.30M
Regan Timothy
Officer: Chief Financial Officer
$1.16M
Dasdan Ali
Officer: Chief Technology Officer
$1.14M
Yoon William T
Officer: Chief Legal Officer
$737K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $41.51M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
No Dividend Yield Data
DBX has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
dbx Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on DBX by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.