Citi Trends, Inc.
$45.83
-0.61%Citi Trends, Inc. operates as a value retailer of fashion apparel, accessories, and home goods. It offers apparel, such as fashion sportswear and footwear for men and ladies, as well as apparel for kids, including newborns, infants, toddlers, boys, and girls; sleepwear, lingerie, and scrubs for ladies; and kids uniforms and accessories. The company also provides accessories and beauty products that include handbags, luggage, hats, belts, sunglasses, jewelry, and watches, as well as undergarments and outerwear for men and women. In addition, it offers home and lifestyle products comprising home products for the bedroom, bathroom, kitchen, and decorative accessories; and food, tech, team sports, and health products, as well as seasonal items, books, and toys. The company provides its products primarily to African American and Latinx families in the United States. As of January 29, 2022, it operated 609 stores in urban and rural markets in 33 states. The company was formerly known as Allied Fashion, Inc. and changed its name to Citi Trends, Inc. in 2001. Citi Trends, Inc. was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Savannah, Georgia.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is elevated (P/E 70.5).
Valuation inputs: P/E 70.5, earnings yield +1.4%, momentum -0.6%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +4.5%, ROIC -1.9%).
Profitability stack: net margin +0.6%, ROE +4.5%, ROIC -1.9%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +75.3%, momentum -0.6%, net margin +0.6%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Citi Trends, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Citi Trends, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Citi Trends, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Strong gross margins indicate healthy pricing and efficient production or service delivery.
Operating Margin
Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.
Net Profit Margin
Minimal profitability after all expenses. Limited financial flexibility for reinvestment or shareholder returns.
Effective Tax Rate
Below-average tax rate suggests effective tax planning, favorable jurisdictions, or tax credits.
Profitability Insight
Margin squeeze alert: Healthy gross margins but weak operating margins suggest excessive operating expenses. Cost optimization could unlock significant value.
Citi Trends, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Weak cash conversion. Significant portion of earnings not converting to cash—review working capital trends and capital intensity.
CapEx Intensity
Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Significant working capital drain. Growth may be consuming cash through inventory buildup or receivables extension—monitor closely.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Capital-intensive growth: Heavy reinvestment limits current cash available but may drive future returns. Assess whether CapEx supports compelling growth opportunities with adequate ROI.
Citi Trends, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Financial stress indicators: Both liquidity and leverage metrics raise concerns. The company may face challenges meeting obligations and should focus on strengthening its balance sheet.
Citi Trends, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that CTRN stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 68.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 68.00 to a high of 68.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 68.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 68.00 to a high of 68.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Analyst Conviction
Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.
Market Sentiment Insight
Rare opportunity: Exceptional upside potential with strong analyst consensus creates a compelling setup. The combination of significant price target premium and tight agreement suggests high-conviction undervaluation that may attract institutional capital.
Citi Trends, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $45K and sold $209K worth of CTRN shares, resulting in $165K of net selling activity.
3 Months
1.0K
44.50K
2.0K
91.82K
-47K
-$47K
3-6 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
6-9 Months
0
0.00
450
20.35K
-20K
-$20K
9-12 Months
0
0.00
2.8K
97.20K
-97K
-$97K
Top Buyers
Heath David A
Director
$45K
Top Sellers
Jenkins Margaret L
Director
$128K
George Katrina
Officer: Vp Of Human Resources
$57K
Plutino Heather L
Officer: Evp And Cfo
$19K
Powell Lisa A.
Officer: Evp And Chief Merch Officer
$5K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $165K net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Weak buy/sell ratio. Selling significantly exceeds buying—monitor for potential fundamental concerns.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Negative recent trend with net selling. Insiders have reduced positions in recent months, which could signal caution.
Insider Participation
4 insider sellers vs. 1 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
ctrn Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on CTRN by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.