CSX Corporation

CSX Corporation

CSXยทNASDAQ

$46.44

+0.65%
IndustrialsRailroads

CSX Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides rail-based freight transportation services. The company offers rail services; and transportation of intermodal containers and trailers, as well as other transportation services, such as rail-to-truck transfers and bulk commodity operations. It transports chemicals, agricultural and food products, automotive, minerals, forest products, fertilizers, and metals and equipment; and coal, coke, and iron ore to electricity-generating power plants, steel manufacturers, and industrial plants, as well as exports coal to deep-water port facilities. The company also offers intermodal transportation services through a network of approximately 30 terminals transporting manufactured consumer goods in containers; and drayage services, including the pickup and delivery of intermodal shipments. It serves the automotive industry with distribution centers and storage locations, as well as connects non-rail served customers through transferring products, such as plastics and ethanol from rail to trucks. The company operates approximately 19,500 route mile rail network, which serves various population centers in 23 states east of the Mississippi River, the District of Columbia, and the Canadian provinces of Ontario and Quebec, as well as owns and leases approximately 3,500 locomotives. It also serves production and distribution facilities through track connections. CSX Corporation was incorporated in 1978 and is headquartered in Jacksonville, Florida.

At a Glance

Live Snapshot
Market Cap$86.29B
EPS1.5400
P/E Ratio30.16
Earnings Date07/22/2026

Intrinsic Alpha Methodology

Thesis Lenses

Signal ยท Driver ยท Risk

Signal

High confidence

Valuation multiple is elevated (P/E 30.2).

Valuation inputs: P/E 30.2, earnings yield +3.3%, momentum +0.7%.

If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.

Driver

High confidence

Return profile is strong (ROE +21.9%, ROIC +8.4%).

Profitability stack: net margin +20.5%, ROE +21.9%, ROIC +8.4%.

Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.

Risk

High confidence

Downside profile looks controlled across current risk inputs.

Risk factors: liabilities/assets +69.9%, momentum +0.7%, net margin +20.5%.

Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.

csx

CSX Corporation Market vs Earnings Trajectory

CSX ยท NASDAQ

Loading price and EPS data...

CSX Corporation

CSX Corporation Fair Value Envelope

CSX ยท NASDAQ

Our analysis suggests that CSX has a fair value of HIDDEN per share in the Base Case projection. With shares currently trading at $46.44, this represents a potential HIDDEN relative to our calculated worth for CSX Corporation.

Intrinsic Value
Current Price: $46.44
3Y-21.0%
5Y+28.0%
10Y+157.0%
3Y-5.0%
5Y+33.0%
10Y+27.0%
3Y-30.0%
5Y+4.0%
10Y+69.0%
3Y-18.0%
5Y+8.0%
10Y+52.0%
3Y-51.0%
5Y-35.0%
10Y+166.0%
3Y+4.0%
5Y+10.0%
10Y+23.0%
CSX Corporation

CSX Corporation Profit Bridge

CSX ยท NASDAQ
Revenue14.09B
Cost of Goods Sold (9.41B)
Gross Profit4.68B
Operating Expenses (164.00M)
Operating Income4.52B
Interest Expense (844.00M)
Other Income/Expense-752.00M
Pretax Income3.77B
Income Tax (880.00M)
Net Income2.89B
Net Income
2.89B

Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin

33.2%

Moderate margins typical of competitive industries. Monitor for pricing pressure or rising costs.

Operating Margin

32.1%

Outstanding operational efficiency. The company generates substantial profit from core operations.

Net Profit Margin

20.5%

Exceptional profitability. The company converts a significant portion of revenue to bottom-line earnings.

Effective Tax Rate

23.3%

Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.

Profitability Insight

Efficient profit conversion: Minimal margin compression from gross to net indicates lean operations and favorable tax/interest environment.

33.25%
Gross Profit Margin
-12%
3Y-14.0%
5Y-21.0%
10Y+9.0%
32.08%
Operating Profit Margin
-13%
3Y-20.0%
5Y-22.0%
10Y+8.0%
20.50%
Net Profit Margin
-14%
3Y-26.0%
5Y-22.0%
10Y+32.0%
21.95%
Return on Equity
-21%
3Y-33.0%
5Y+4.0%
10Y+50.0%
6.61%
Return on Assets
-18%
3Y-33.0%
5Y-5.0%
10Y+37.0%
8.40%
Return on Invested Capital
-18%
3Y-27.0%
5Y-3.0%
10Y+38.0%
CSX

CSX Corporation Cash Conversion Engine

CSX ยท NASDAQ
Net Income2.89B
Depreciation & Amortization1.68B
Stock-Based Compensation0.00
Change in Working Capital-244.00M
Others94.00M
Capital Expenditures-2.90B
Free Cash Flow1.71B

Cash Flow Quality Analysis

FCF Conversion Rate

59.2%

Weak cash conversion. Significant portion of earnings not converting to cashโ€”review working capital trends and capital intensity.

CapEx Intensity

62.9%

Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.

FCF Growth Trend

-37.0%

Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.

Working Capital Impact

-$244.00M

Minimal working capital impact on FCF. Changes in operating assets and liabilities well-managed.

Cash Flow Quality Insight

Deteriorating cash generation: Both declining FCF and weak conversion rate signal fundamental challenges. Investigate margin pressure, rising costs, or working capital issues.

csx

CSX Corporation Funding & Solvency Profile

CSX ยท NASDAQ
Cash & Cash Equivalents964.00M
Net Receivables1.39B
Inventory0.00
Other Current Assets760.00M
Total Current Assets3 B
Property, Plant & Equipment451.00M
Goodwill & Intangible Assets264.00M
Long-Term Investments2.65B
Other Non-Current Assets37.75B
Total Non-Current Assets41 B
Total Assets
44.23B

Financial Health Analysis

Current Ratio

0.97x

Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.

Debt-to-Equity Ratio

2.26x

High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.

Working Capital

-110000000

Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assetsโ€”potential liquidity stress.

Asset Composition

7% Current

Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.

Financial Health Insight

Financial stress indicators: Both liquidity and leverage metrics raise concerns. The company may face challenges meeting obligations and should focus on strengthening its balance sheet.

csx

CSX Corporation Street Expectations Map

CSX ยท NASDAQ

Wall Street analysts project that CSX stock may see slight declines over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 43.54, with estimates ranging from a low of 30.00 to a high of 50.00.

Lowest Target
30.00
-35.40%
Consensus Target
43.54
-6.24%
Highest Target
50.00
7.67%

The consensus 1-year price target stands at 43.54, with estimates ranging from a low of 30.00 to a high of 50.00.

Analyst Consensus Analysis

Upside Potential

-6.2%

Downside risk. Current price above analyst targets indicates potential overvaluation. Exercise caution and review catalysts.

Analyst Agreement

45.9% spread

Mixed analyst views. Wide target range suggests differing opinions on key value drivers, growth prospects, or risk factors.

Risk-Reward Profile

0.22x

Unfavorable risk-reward. Downside risk exceeds upside potential. Consider defensive positioning or alternative opportunities.

Analyst Conviction

Low

Bearish or uncertain outlook. Limited upside or poor consensus suggests challenges ahead or fundamental concerns.

Market Sentiment Insight

Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.

csx

CSX Corporation Insider Positioning

CSX ยท NASDAQ

During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $3.03M and sold $9.47M worth of CSX shares, resulting in $6.43M of net selling activity.

3 Months

Bought

25.0K

1.01M

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+1.0M

+$1.01M

3-6 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

188.1K

7.45M

Net Activity

-7.5M

-$7.45M

6-9 Months

Bought

55.0K

2.03M

Sold

55.3K

2.01M

Net Activity

+16K

+$16K

9-12 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

Top Buyers

1
ASF

Angel Stephen F

Director, Officer: President & Ceo

80.0K sharesโ€ข2 transactions

$3.03M

Top Sellers

1
SDB

Sorfleet Diana B

Officer: Evp & Cao

156.7K sharesโ€ข2 transactions

$6.24M

2
FS

Fortune Stephen

Officer: Evp - Cd & To

31.5K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$1.22M

3
BKS

Boone Kevin S.

Officer: Evp & Cco

31.1K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$1.12M

4
BMS

Burns Michael S.

Officer: Svp - Clo & Corp Secy

24.2K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$891K

Insider Activity Analysis

Net Insider Sentiment

Bearish

Strong bearish signal with $6.43M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.

Buy/Sell Ratio

0.32:1

Weak buy/sell ratio. Selling significantly exceeds buyingโ€”monitor for potential fundamental concerns.

Recent Trend (3 Months)

$1.01M

Very strong recent buying momentum. Recent insider purchases significantly outpace sales, suggesting near-term optimism.

Insider Participation

High Selling

4 insider sellers vs. 1 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.

0.34%
Dividend Yield
-5%
3Y-7.0%
5Y+17.0%
10Y-51.0%
ย 

csx Dividend History

CSX
10Y CAGR +9%
Latest $0.14
Annual $0.67
5 year growth trend
Last Period: +0%