CME Group Inc.
$252.64
+0.84%CME Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates contract markets for the trading of futures and options on futures contracts worldwide. It offers futures and options products based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, agricultural commodities, energy, and metals, as well as fixed income products. The company also provides clearing house services, including clearing, settling, and guaranteeing futures and options contracts, and cleared swaps products traded through its exchanges; and trade processing and risk mitigation services. In addition, the company offers a range of market data services, including real-time and historical data services. It serves professional traders, financial institutions, institutional and individual investors, corporations, manufacturers, producers, governments, and central banks. The company was formerly known as Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings Inc. and changed its name to CME Group Inc. in July 2007. CME Group Inc. was founded in 1898 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is elevated (P/E 24.3).
Valuation inputs: P/E 24.3, earnings yield +4.1%, momentum +0.8%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +14.1%, ROIC +1.6%).
Profitability stack: net margin +62.0%, ROE +14.1%, ROIC +1.6%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +85.5%, momentum +0.8%, net margin +62.0%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
CME Group Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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CME Group Inc. Fair Value Envelope
CME Group Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Outstanding operational efficiency. The company generates substantial profit from core operations.
Net Profit Margin
Exceptional profitability. The company converts a significant portion of revenue to bottom-line earnings.
Effective Tax Rate
Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.
Profitability Insight
Exceptional profitability across all levels: Strong pricing power, efficient operations, and healthy bottom line indicate a high-quality business with sustainable competitive advantages.
CME Group Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Exceptional cash generation: High-quality earnings converting to growing free cash flow. The company demonstrates strong pricing power, efficient operations, and disciplined capital allocation.
CME Group Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Acceptable liquidity, but monitor closely. Current assets just barely cover current liabilities.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Positive working capital, but relatively tight. The company should monitor cash flow carefully.
Asset Composition
Asset-light business model with high liquidity. Majority of assets are easily convertible to cash.
CME Group Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that CME stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 320.25, with estimates ranging from a low of 302.00 to a high of 353.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 320.25, with estimates ranging from a low of 302.00 to a high of 353.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Analyst Conviction
Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.
Market Sentiment Insight
Rare opportunity: Exceptional upside potential with strong analyst consensus creates a compelling setup. The combination of significant price target premium and tight agreement suggests high-conviction undervaluation that may attract institutional capital.
CME Group Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $494K and sold $22.58M worth of CME shares, resulting in $22.08M of net selling activity.
3 Months
1.4K
418.41K
44.5K
13.55M
-13.1M
-$13.13M
3-6 Months
251
69.87K
18.3K
5.14M
-5.1M
-$5.07M
6-9 Months
11
2.92K
8.0K
2.18M
-2.2M
-$2.18M
9-12 Months
11
2.98K
6.3K
1.71M
-1.7M
-$1.71M
Top Buyers
Shepard William R
Director
$494K
Top Sellers
Duffy Terrence A
Director, Officer: Chairman And Ceo
$11.27M
Marcus Jonathan L
Officer: Sr Md General Counsel
$2.33M
Piell Hilda Harris
Officer: Sr Md & Chief Hr Officer
$1.75M
Sammann Derek
Officer: Sr Md Gl Hd Commodities Mkts
$1.62M
Cutinho Sunil
Officer: Chief Information Officer
$1.62M
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $22.08M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 1 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
cme Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on CME by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.