Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc.
$10.58
-3.5%TCG BDC, Inc. is business development company specializing in first lien debt, senior secured loans, second lien senior secured loan unsecured debt, mezzanine debt and investments in equities. It specializes in directly investing. It specializes in middle market. It targets healthcare and pharmaceutical, aerospace and defense, high tech industries, business services, software, beverage food and tobacco, hotel gamming and leisure, banking finance insurance and in real estate sector. The fund seeks to invest across United States of America, Luxembourg, Cayman Islands, Cyprus, and United Kingdom. It invests in companies with EBITDA between $25 million and $100 million.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E 10.4).
Valuation inputs: P/E 10.4, earnings yield +9.6%, momentum -3.5%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +6.0%, ROIC +6.1%).
Profitability stack: net margin +35.4%, ROE +6.0%, ROIC +6.1%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile looks controlled across current risk inputs.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +58.2%, momentum -3.5%, net margin +35.4%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Outstanding operational efficiency. The company generates substantial profit from core operations.
Net Profit Margin
Exceptional profitability. The company converts a significant portion of revenue to bottom-line earnings.
Effective Tax Rate
Below-average tax rate suggests effective tax planning, favorable jurisdictions, or tax credits.
Profitability Insight
Exceptional profitability across all levels: Strong pricing power, efficient operations, and healthy bottom line indicate a high-quality business with sustainable competitive advantages.
Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Cash flow concerns: Despite profitability, the company is burning cash. Review working capital management, CapEx levels, and sustainability of current operations.
Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Elevated leverage. Debt exceeds equity, which amplifies both gains and risks. Monitor debt servicing ability.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that CGBD stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 12.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 12.00 to a high of 12.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 12.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 12.00 to a high of 12.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Moderate upside. Analysts expect positive returns but with limited margin of safety. Consider entry timing.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Analyst Conviction
Positive outlook with reasonable agreement. Analysts generally optimistic about prospects with manageable uncertainty.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $369K and sold $339K worth of CGBD shares, resulting in $29K of net buying activity.
3 Months
9.2K
99.73K
6.8K
76.56K
+23K
+$23K
3-6 Months
4.4K
49.88K
0
0.00
+50K
+$50K
6-9 Months
9.9K
118.90K
7.1K
84.10K
+35K
+$35K
9-12 Months
7.3K
100.17K
13.2K
178.58K
-78K
-$78K
Top Buyers
Hennigan Thomas M
Director, Officer: Cfo And President
$251K
Chi Alex
Director, Officer: Ceo
$97K
Joseph Nelson
Officer: Pao
$18K
Taylor Francis
Officer: Treasurer
$3K
Top Sellers
Nestor John G.
Director
$339K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Moderately bullish with $29K net buying. Insiders show cautious optimism through measured share purchases.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Positive buy/sell ratio. Buying exceeds or matches selling, indicating net positive insider sentiment.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Positive recent trend with net buying activity. Insiders have been accumulating shares in recent months.
Insider Participation
4 insider buyers vs. 1 sellers. Broad-based buying across management team suggests widespread confidence.
Insider Activity Insight
Broad-based insider buying: When multiple insiders independently decide to purchase shares, it often reflects genuine confidence rather than coordinated optics. This pattern deserves attention, especially if buying followed a price decline.
cgbd Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on CGBD by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.