Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc.

Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc.

CGBDยทNASDAQ

$10.58

-3.5%
Financial ServicesAsset Management

TCG BDC, Inc. is business development company specializing in first lien debt, senior secured loans, second lien senior secured loan unsecured debt, mezzanine debt and investments in equities. It specializes in directly investing. It specializes in middle market. It targets healthcare and pharmaceutical, aerospace and defense, high tech industries, business services, software, beverage food and tobacco, hotel gamming and leisure, banking finance insurance and in real estate sector. The fund seeks to invest across United States of America, Luxembourg, Cayman Islands, Cyprus, and United Kingdom. It invests in companies with EBITDA between $25 million and $100 million.

At a Glance

Live Snapshot
Market Cap$735.28M
EPS1.0200
P/E Ratio10.37
Earnings Date08/04/2026

Intrinsic Alpha Methodology

Thesis Lenses

Signal ยท Driver ยท Risk

Signal

High confidence

Valuation multiple is compressed (P/E 10.4).

Valuation inputs: P/E 10.4, earnings yield +9.6%, momentum -3.5%.

If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.

Driver

High confidence

Return profile is soft (ROE +6.0%, ROIC +6.1%).

Profitability stack: net margin +35.4%, ROE +6.0%, ROIC +6.1%.

Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.

Risk

High confidence

Downside profile looks controlled across current risk inputs.

Risk factors: liabilities/assets +58.2%, momentum -3.5%, net margin +35.4%.

Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.

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Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory

CGBD ยท NASDAQ

Loading price and EPS data...

Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc.

Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. Fair Value Envelope

CGBD ยท NASDAQ

Our analysis suggests that CGBD has a fair value of HIDDEN per share in the Base Case projection. With shares currently trading at $10.58, this represents a potential HIDDEN relative to our calculated worth for Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc..

Intrinsic Value
Current Price: $10.58
3Y-35.0%
5Y+1164.0%
10Y-50.0%
3Y+43.0%
5Y+274.0%
10Y+95.0%
3Y-18.0%
5Y+925.0%
10Y-
3Y-386.0%
5Y-167.0%
10Y-35.0%
3Y-386.0%
5Y-167.0%
10Y-35.0%
3Y+37.0%
5Y+45.0%
10Y+87.0%
Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc.

Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. Profit Bridge

CGBD ยท NASDAQ
Revenue197.79M
Cost of Goods Sold (57.56M)
Gross Profit140.23M
Operating Expenses (-30.23M)
Operating Income170.46M
Interest Expense (88.09M)
Other Income/Expense-98.58M
Pretax Income71.88M
Income Tax (1.91M)
Net Income69.97M
Net Income
69.97M

Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin

70.9%

Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.

Operating Margin

86.2%

Outstanding operational efficiency. The company generates substantial profit from core operations.

Net Profit Margin

35.4%

Exceptional profitability. The company converts a significant portion of revenue to bottom-line earnings.

Effective Tax Rate

2.7%

Below-average tax rate suggests effective tax planning, favorable jurisdictions, or tax credits.

Profitability Insight

Exceptional profitability across all levels: Strong pricing power, efficient operations, and healthy bottom line indicate a high-quality business with sustainable competitive advantages.

70.90%
Gross Profit Margin
20%
3Y+4.0%
5Y+119.0%
10Y-35.0%
86.18%
Operating Profit Margin
58%
3Y+37.0%
5Y+516.0%
10Y+25.0%
35.38%
Net Profit Margin
-33%
3Y-43.0%
5Y+174.0%
10Y-49.0%
5.99%
Return on Equity
-39%
3Y-36.0%
5Y+691.0%
10Y-34.0%
2.51%
Return on Assets
-46%
3Y-40.0%
5Y+606.0%
10Y-46.0%
6.13%
Return on Invested Capital
30%
3Y+44.0%
5Y+1606.0%
10Y+28.0%
CGBD

Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine

CGBD ยท NASDAQ
Net Income1.70M
Depreciation & Amortization5.30M
Stock-Based Compensation0.00
Change in Working Capital16.46M
Others106.53M
Capital Expenditures0.00
Free Cash Flow-204.56M

Cash Flow Quality Analysis

FCF Conversion Rate

-12054.2%

Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.

FCF Growth Trend

-296.2%

Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.

Working Capital Impact

+$16.46M

Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.

Cash Flow Quality Insight

Cash flow concerns: Despite profitability, the company is burning cash. Review working capital management, CapEx levels, and sustainability of current operations.

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Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile

CGBD ยท NASDAQ
Cash & Cash Equivalents97.24M
Net Receivables20.78M
Inventory0.00
Other Current Assets0.00
Total Current Assets118 M
Property, Plant & Equipment0.00
Goodwill & Intangible Assets0.00
Long-Term Investments0.00
Other Non-Current Assets0.00
Total Non-Current Assets0
Total Assets
2.56B

Financial Health Analysis

Debt-to-Equity Ratio

1.29x

Elevated leverage. Debt exceeds equity, which amplifies both gains and risks. Monitor debt servicing ability.

Working Capital

118 M

Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.

Asset Composition

5% Current

Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.

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Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. Street Expectations Map

CGBD ยท NASDAQ

Wall Street analysts project that CGBD stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 12.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 12.00 to a high of 12.00.

Lowest Target
12.00
13.42%
Consensus Target
12.00
13.42%
Highest Target
12.00
13.42%

The consensus 1-year price target stands at 12.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 12.00 to a high of 12.00.

Analyst Consensus Analysis

Upside Potential

+13.4%

Moderate upside. Analysts expect positive returns but with limited margin of safety. Consider entry timing.

Analyst Agreement

0.0% spread

High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.

Analyst Conviction

High

Positive outlook with reasonable agreement. Analysts generally optimistic about prospects with manageable uncertainty.

Market Sentiment Insight

Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.

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Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. Insider Positioning

CGBD ยท NASDAQ

During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $369K and sold $339K worth of CGBD shares, resulting in $29K of net buying activity.

3 Months

Bought

9.2K

99.73K

Sold

6.8K

76.56K

Net Activity

+23K

+$23K

3-6 Months

Bought

4.4K

49.88K

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+50K

+$50K

6-9 Months

Bought

9.9K

118.90K

Sold

7.1K

84.10K

Net Activity

+35K

+$35K

9-12 Months

Bought

7.3K

100.17K

Sold

13.2K

178.58K

Net Activity

-78K

-$78K

Top Buyers

1
HTM

Hennigan Thomas M

Director, Officer: Cfo And President

20.1K sharesโ€ข3 transactions

$251K

2
CA

Chi Alex

Director, Officer: Ceo

9.0K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$97K

3
JN

Joseph Nelson

Officer: Pao

1.5K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$18K

4
TF

Taylor Francis

Officer: Treasurer

232 sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$3K

Top Sellers

1
NJG

Nestor John G.

Director

27.2K sharesโ€ข5 transactions

$339K

Insider Activity Analysis

Net Insider Sentiment

Bullish

Moderately bullish with $29K net buying. Insiders show cautious optimism through measured share purchases.

Buy/Sell Ratio

1.09:1

Positive buy/sell ratio. Buying exceeds or matches selling, indicating net positive insider sentiment.

Recent Trend (3 Months)

$23K

Positive recent trend with net buying activity. Insiders have been accumulating shares in recent months.

Insider Participation

High Buying

4 insider buyers vs. 1 sellers. Broad-based buying across management team suggests widespread confidence.

Insider Activity Insight

Broad-based insider buying: When multiple insiders independently decide to purchase shares, it often reflects genuine confidence rather than coordinated optics. This pattern deserves attention, especially if buying followed a price decline.

0.00%
Dividend Yield
-100%
3Y-100.0%
5Y-100.0%
10Y-100.0%
ย 

cgbd Dividend History

CGBD
10Y CAGR 1%
Latest $0.35
Annual $1.95
Dividend decline trend
Last Period: 13%