The Carlyle Group Inc.

The Carlyle Group Inc.

CGยทNASDAQ

$42.24

-6.3%
Financial ServicesAsset Management

The Carlyle Group Inc. is an investment firm specializing in direct and fund of fund investments. Within direct investments, it specializes in management-led/ Leveraged buyouts, privatizations, divestitures, strategic minority equity investments, structured credit, global distressed and corporate opportunities, small and middle market, equity private placements, consolidations and buildups, senior debt, mezzanine and leveraged finance, and venture and growth capital financings, seed/startup, early venture, emerging growth, turnaround, mid venture, late venture, PIPES. The firm invests across four segments which include Corporate Private Equity, Real Assets, Global Market Strategies, and Solutions. The firm typically invests in industrial, agribusiness, ecological sector, fintech, airports, parking, Plastics, Rubber, diversified natural resources, minerals, farming, aerospace, defense, automotive, consumer, retail, industrial, infrastructure, energy, power, healthcare, software, software enabled services, semiconductors, communications infrastructure, financial technology, utilities, gaming, systems and related supply chain, electronic systems, systems, oil and gas, processing facilities, power generation assets, technology, systems, real estate, financial services, transportation, business services, telecommunications, media, and logistics sectors. Within the industrial sector, the firm invests in manufacturing, building products, packaging, chemicals, metals and mining, forestry and paper products, and industrial consumables and services. In consumer and retail sectors, it invests in food and beverage, retail, restaurants, consumer products, domestic consumption, consumer services, personal care products, direct marketing, and education. Within aerospace, defense, business services, and government services sectors, it seeks to invest in defense electronics, manufacturing and services, government contracting and services, information technology, distribution companies. In telecommunication and media sectors, it invests in cable TV, directories, publishing, entertainment and content delivery services, wireless infrastructure/services, fixed line networks, satellite services, broadband and Internet, and infrastructure. Within real estate, the firm invests in office, hotel, industrial, retail, for sale residential, student housing, hospitality, multifamily residential, homebuilding and building products, and senior living sectors. The firm seeks to make investments in growing business including those with overleveraged balance sheets. The firm seeks to hold its investments for four to six years. In the healthcare sector, it invests in healthcare services, outsourcing services, companies running clinical trials for pharmaceutical companies, managed care, pharmaceuticals, pharmaceutical related services, healthcare IT, medical, products, and devices. It seeks to invest in companies based in Sub-Saharan focusing on Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Botswana, Nigeria, Uganda, West Africa, North Africa and South Africa focusing on Tanzania and Zambia; Asia focusing on Pakistan, India, South East Asia, Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, Korea, and Japan; Australia; New Zealand; Europe focusing on France, Italy, Denmark, United Kingdom, Germany, Austria, Belgium, Finland, Iceland, Ireland, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Benelux , Sweden, Switzerland, Hungary, Poland, and Russia; Middle East focusing on Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and UAE; North America focusing on United States which further invest in Southeastern United States, Texas, Boston, San Francisco Bay Area and Pacific Northwest; Asia Pacific; Soviet Union, Central-Eastern Europe, and Israel; Nordic region; and South America focusing on Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Peru. The firm seeks to invest in food, financial, and healthcare industries in Western China. In the real estate sector, the firm seeks to invest in various locations across Europe focusing on France and Central Europe, United States, Asia focusing on China, and Latin America. It typically invests between $1 million and $50 million for venture investments and between $50 million and $2 billion for buyouts in companies with enterprise value of between $31.57 million and $1000 million and sales value of $10 million and $500 million. It seeks to invest in companies with market capitalization greater than $50 million and EBITDA between $5 million to $25 million. It prefers to take a majority or a minority stake. It typically holds its investments for three to five years. Within automotive and transportation sectors, the firm seeks to hold its investments in for four to six years. While investing in Japan, it does not invest in companies with more than 1,000 employees and prefers companies' worth between $100 million and $150 million. The firm originates, structures, and acts as lead equity investor in the transactions. The Carlyle Group Inc. was founded in 1987 and is based in Washington, District of Columbia with additional offices in 21 countries across 5 continents (North America, South America, Asia, Australia and Europe).

At a Glance

Live Snapshot
Market Cap$15.21B
EPS2.2500
P/E Ratio18.77
Earnings Date08/04/2026

Intrinsic Alpha Methodology

Thesis Lenses

Signal ยท Driver ยท Risk

Signal

High confidence

Valuation multiple is mid-range (P/E 18.8).

Valuation inputs: P/E 18.8, earnings yield +5.3%, momentum -6.3%.

If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.

Driver

High confidence

Return profile is acceptable (ROE +14.0%, ROIC +3.6%).

Profitability stack: net margin +16.5%, ROE +14.0%, ROIC +3.6%.

Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.

Risk

High confidence

Risk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.

Risk factors: liabilities/assets +75.8%, momentum -6.3%, net margin +16.5%.

Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.

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The Carlyle Group Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory

CG ยท NASDAQ

Loading price and EPS data...

The Carlyle Group Inc.

The Carlyle Group Inc. Fair Value Envelope

CG ยท NASDAQ

Our analysis suggests that CG has a fair value of HIDDEN per share in the Base Case projection. With shares currently trading at $42.24, this represents a potential HIDDEN relative to our calculated worth for The Carlyle Group Inc..

Intrinsic Value
Current Price: $42.24
3Y-34.0%
5Y+127.0%
10Y+2712.0%
3Y+33.0%
5Y+129.0%
10Y+153.0%
3Y-34.0%
5Y+132.0%
10Y+12536.0%
3Y-486.0%
5Y-965.0%
10Y-587.0%
3Y-425.0%
5Y-692.0%
10Y-518.0%
3Y+36.0%
5Y+86.0%
10Y+192.0%
The Carlyle Group Inc.

The Carlyle Group Inc. Profit Bridge

CG ยท NASDAQ
Revenue4.90B
Cost of Goods Sold (1.67B)
Gross Profit3.23B
Operating Expenses (1.95B)
Operating Income1.28B
Interest Expense (123.90M)
Other Income/Expense-123.70M
Pretax Income1.16B
Income Tax (214.50M)
Net Income808.70M
Net Income
808.70M

Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin

65.9%

Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.

Operating Margin

26.2%

Outstanding operational efficiency. The company generates substantial profit from core operations.

Net Profit Margin

16.5%

Strong net margins indicate efficient operations and favorable tax/interest management.

Effective Tax Rate

18.5%

Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.

Profitability Insight

Exceptional profitability across all levels: Strong pricing power, efficient operations, and healthy bottom line indicate a high-quality business with sustainable competitive advantages.

65.93%
Gross Profit Margin
-21%
3Y-28.0%
5Y-25.0%
10Y-17.0%
26.19%
Operating Profit Margin
-23%
3Y-39.0%
5Y-4.0%
10Y+1018.0%
16.51%
Net Profit Margin
-34%
3Y-50.0%
5Y+1.0%
10Y+4890.0%
14.04%
Return on Equity
-23%
3Y-29.0%
5Y+8.0%
10Y+575.0%
2.78%
Return on Assets
-37%
3Y-51.0%
5Y+25.0%
10Y+4226.0%
3.62%
Return on Invested Capital
-24%
3Y-41.0%
5Y+45.0%
10Y+224.0%
CG

The Carlyle Group Inc. Cash Conversion Engine

CG ยท NASDAQ
Net Income808.70M
Depreciation & Amortization192.10M
Stock-Based Compensation0.00
Change in Working Capital466.80M
Others-4.70M
Capital Expenditures-99.40M
Free Cash Flow1.36B

Cash Flow Quality Analysis

FCF Conversion Rate

168.6%

Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.

CapEx Intensity

6.8%

Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.

FCF Growth Trend

+262.9%

Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.

Working Capital Impact

+$466.80M

Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.

Cash Flow Quality Insight

Exceptional cash generation: High-quality earnings converting to growing free cash flow. The company demonstrates strong pricing power, efficient operations, and disciplined capital allocation.

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The Carlyle Group Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile

CG ยท NASDAQ
Cash & Cash Equivalents2.75B
Net Receivables1.13B
Inventory0.00
Other Current Assets0.00
Total Current Assets4 B
Property, Plant & Equipment567.80M
Goodwill & Intangible Assets473.60M
Long-Term Investments24.79B
Other Non-Current Assets98.40M
Total Non-Current Assets25 B
Total Assets
29.84B

Financial Health Analysis

Current Ratio

10.83x

Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.

Debt-to-Equity Ratio

3.05x

High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.

Working Capital

4 B

Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.

Asset Composition

13% Current

Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.

Financial Health Insight

Mixed signals: Strong short-term liquidity provides comfort, but high overall leverage requires careful monitoring of debt servicing capabilities and refinancing risk.

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The Carlyle Group Inc. Street Expectations Map

CG ยท NASDAQ

Wall Street analysts project that CG stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 62.86, with estimates ranging from a low of 45.00 to a high of 74.00.

Lowest Target
45.00
6.53%
Consensus Target
62.86
48.82%
Highest Target
74.00
75.19%

The consensus 1-year price target stands at 62.86, with estimates ranging from a low of 45.00 to a high of 74.00.

Analyst Consensus Analysis

Upside Potential

+48.8%

Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.

Analyst Agreement

46.1% spread

Mixed analyst views. Wide target range suggests differing opinions on key value drivers, growth prospects, or risk factors.

Analyst Conviction

Moderate

Neutral sentiment. Fair value pricing with moderate agreement suggests wait-and-see approach or catalyst-driven opportunity.

Market Sentiment Insight

Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.

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The Carlyle Group Inc. Insider Positioning

CG ยท NASDAQ

During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $66.60M worth of CG shares, with no buying activity reported.

3 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

500.0K

23.34M

Net Activity

-23.3M

-$23.34M

3-6 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

625.0K

35.34M

Net Activity

-35.3M

-$35.34M

6-9 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

9-12 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

125.9K

7.92M

Net Activity

-7.9M

-$7.92M

Top Buyers

No buying activity

Top Sellers

1
RDM

Rubenstein David M.

Director

1.1M sharesโ€ข2 transactions

$58.68M

2
FJW

Ferguson Jeffrey W.

Officer: General Counsel

125.9K sharesโ€ข2 transactions

$7.92M

Insider Activity Analysis

Net Insider Sentiment

Bearish

Strong bearish signal with $66.60M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.

Buy/Sell Ratio

0.00:1

Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.

Recent Trend (3 Months)

$23.34M

Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchasesโ€”may warrant investigation into company developments.

Insider Participation

High Selling

2 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.

Insider Activity Insight

Persistent selling pressure: Consistent insider selling with weak buy/sell ratio suggests insiders may be capitalizing on current valuation. Exercise caution and review recent earnings quality and management commentary.

0.73%
Dividend Yield
23%
3Y-31.0%
5Y+7.0%
10Y-52.0%
ย 

cg Dividend History

CG
10Y CAGR +3%
Latest $0.35
Annual $1.75
5 year growth trend
Last Period: +0%