Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. Class A Common Stock
$7.01
+1.2%Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. is a holding company, which engages in the provision of caffeinated beverages. It offers roasted coffees, teas, smoothies, and flavorful energy drinks. The company was founded by Daniel Brand, Jeff Hernandez, Jake Spellmeyer, and Bryan Pereboom in 2008 and is headquartered in Scottsdale, AZ.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -2061.8).
Valuation inputs: P/E -2061.8, earnings yield N/A, momentum +1.2%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -36.0%, ROIC +1.7%).
Profitability stack: net margin -8.2%, ROE -36.0%, ROIC +1.7%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +68.9%, momentum +1.2%, net margin -8.2%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. Class A Common Stock Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. Class A Common Stock Fair Value Envelope
Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. Class A Common Stock Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Moderate margins typical of competitive industries. Monitor for pricing pressure or rising costs.
Operating Margin
Minimal operating profit suggests high operating costs or pricing challenges. Scalability is concerning.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Profitability Insight
Non-operating losses: Core business is profitable but other expenses (interest, taxes, one-time items) are driving net losses. Review capital structure and non-operating items.
Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. Class A Common Stock Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
CapEx Intensity
Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Moderate working capital outflow. Typical for growing businesses, but ensure it's supporting revenue growth, not inefficiency.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Deteriorating cash generation: Both declining FCF and weak conversion rate signal fundamental challenges. Investigate margin pressure, rising costs, or working capital issues.
Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. Class A Common Stock Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Financial stress indicators: Both liquidity and leverage metrics raise concerns. The company may face challenges meeting obligations and should focus on strengthening its balance sheet.
Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. Class A Common Stock Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that BRCB stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 19.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 15.00 to a high of 22.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 19.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 15.00 to a high of 22.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.
Analyst Conviction
Positive outlook with reasonable agreement. Analysts generally optimistic about prospects with manageable uncertainty.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. Class A Common Stock Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $64.80M worth of BRCB shares, with no selling activity reported.
3 Months
12.1M
64.80M
0
0.00
+64.8M
+$64.80M
3-6 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
6-9 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
9-12 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
Top Buyers
Cynosure Group, Llc
Director, 10 Percent Owner:
$64.43M
Geyer Clay Howard
Officer: Chief Operating Officer
$300K
Schmidt Michael Ryan
Officer: Principal Accounting Officer
$50K
Wegener-Beyer Jessica Michele
Officer: Chief Marketing Officer
$20K
Top Sellers
No selling activity
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bullish signal with $64.80M net buying. Insiders are aggressively accumulating shares, suggesting significant confidence in future prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Perfect buy/sell ratio. Only buying activity with zero selling—the most bullish possible insider signal.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Very strong recent buying momentum. Recent insider purchases significantly outpace sales, suggesting near-term optimism.
Insider Participation
4 insider buyers vs. 0 sellers. Broad-based buying across management team suggests widespread confidence.
Insider Activity Insight
Strong confluence of bullish signals: High buy/sell ratio, multiple insiders participating, and recent buying momentum all point to significant insider confidence. This level of coordinated buying often precedes positive developments.
brcb Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on BRCB by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.