BR

Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. Class A Common Stock

BRCB·NASDAQ

$7.01

+1.2%
Consumer DefensiveFood Confectioners

Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. is a holding company, which engages in the provision of caffeinated beverages. It offers roasted coffees, teas, smoothies, and flavorful energy drinks. The company was founded by Daniel Brand, Jeff Hernandez, Jake Spellmeyer, and Bryan Pereboom in 2008 and is headquartered in Scottsdale, AZ.

At a Glance

Live Snapshot
Market Cap$126.31M
EPS-0.0034
P/E Ratio-2061.76
Earnings Date06/03/2026

Intrinsic Alpha Methodology

Thesis Lenses

Signal · Driver · Risk

Signal

Medium confidence

Valuation multiple is compressed (P/E -2061.8).

Valuation inputs: P/E -2061.8, earnings yield N/A, momentum +1.2%.

If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.

Driver

High confidence

Return profile is soft (ROE -36.0%, ROIC +1.7%).

Profitability stack: net margin -8.2%, ROE -36.0%, ROIC +1.7%.

Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.

Risk

High confidence

Risk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.

Risk factors: liabilities/assets +68.9%, momentum +1.2%, net margin -8.2%.

Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.

b

Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. Class A Common Stock Market vs Earnings Trajectory

BRCB · NASDAQ

Loading price and EPS data...

BR

Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. Class A Common Stock Fair Value Envelope

BRCB · NASDAQ

Our analysis suggests that BRCB has a fair value of HIDDEN per share in the Base Case projection. With shares currently trading at $7.01, this represents a potential HIDDEN relative to our calculated worth for Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. Class A Common Stock.

Intrinsic Value
Current Price: $7.01
3Y-99.0%
5Y-99.0%
10Y-99.0%
3Y+50.0%
5Y+50.0%
10Y+50.0%
3Y+86.0%
5Y+86.0%
10Y+86.0%
3Y-58.0%
5Y-58.0%
10Y-58.0%
3Y+191.0%
5Y+191.0%
10Y+191.0%
3Y+90.0%
5Y+90.0%
10Y+90.0%
BR

Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. Class A Common Stock Profit Bridge

BRCB · NASDAQ
Revenue200.32M
Cost of Goods Sold (153.79M)
Gross Profit46.53M
Operating Expenses (41.32M)
Operating Income5.20M
Interest Expense (9.35M)
Other Income/Expense-21.27M
Pretax Income-16.06M
Income Tax (475.00K)
Net Income-16.44M
Net Income
-16.44M

Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin

23.2%

Moderate margins typical of competitive industries. Monitor for pricing pressure or rising costs.

Operating Margin

2.6%

Minimal operating profit suggests high operating costs or pricing challenges. Scalability is concerning.

Net Profit Margin

-8.2%

Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.

Profitability Insight

Non-operating losses: Core business is profitable but other expenses (interest, taxes, one-time items) are driving net losses. Review capital structure and non-operating items.

23.23%
Gross Profit Margin
-53%
3Y-49.0%
5Y-49.0%
10Y-49.0%
2.60%
Operating Profit Margin
-253%
3Y+69.0%
5Y+69.0%
10Y+69.0%
-8.21%
Net Profit Margin
253%
3Y+24.0%
5Y+24.0%
10Y+24.0%
-35.99%
Return on Equity
-260%
3Y-113.0%
5Y-113.0%
10Y-113.0%
-4.89%
Return on Assets
178%
3Y-2.0%
5Y-2.0%
10Y-2.0%
1.69%
Return on Invested Capital
-225%
3Y+33.0%
5Y+33.0%
10Y+33.0%
B

Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. Class A Common Stock Cash Conversion Engine

BRCB · NASDAQ
Net Income0.00
Depreciation & Amortization0.00
Stock-Based Compensation0.00
Change in Working Capital-12.97M
Others15.15M
Capital Expenditures-34.88M
Free Cash Flow-32.70M

Cash Flow Quality Analysis

CapEx Intensity

1593.7%

Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.

FCF Growth Trend

-240.0%

Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.

Working Capital Impact

-$12.97M

Moderate working capital outflow. Typical for growing businesses, but ensure it's supporting revenue growth, not inefficiency.

Cash Flow Quality Insight

Deteriorating cash generation: Both declining FCF and weak conversion rate signal fundamental challenges. Investigate margin pressure, rising costs, or working capital issues.

b

Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. Class A Common Stock Funding & Solvency Profile

BRCB · NASDAQ
Cash & Cash Equivalents20.02M
Net Receivables2.69M
Inventory3.26M
Other Current Assets4.50M
Total Current Assets30 M
Property, Plant & Equipment245.43M
Goodwill & Intangible Assets14.68M
Long-Term Investments0.00
Other Non-Current Assets863.00K
Total Non-Current Assets246 M
Total Assets
347.24M

Financial Health Analysis

Current Ratio

0.87x

Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.

Debt-to-Equity Ratio

2.23x

High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.

Working Capital

-4668000

Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.

Asset Composition

9% Current

Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.

Financial Health Insight

Financial stress indicators: Both liquidity and leverage metrics raise concerns. The company may face challenges meeting obligations and should focus on strengthening its balance sheet.

b

Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. Class A Common Stock Street Expectations Map

BRCB · NASDAQ

Wall Street analysts project that BRCB stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 19.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 15.00 to a high of 22.00.

Lowest Target
15.00
113.98%
Consensus Target
19.00
171.04%
Highest Target
22.00
213.84%

The consensus 1-year price target stands at 19.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 15.00 to a high of 22.00.

Analyst Consensus Analysis

Upside Potential

+171.0%

Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.

Analyst Agreement

36.8% spread

Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.

Analyst Conviction

High

Positive outlook with reasonable agreement. Analysts generally optimistic about prospects with manageable uncertainty.

Market Sentiment Insight

Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.

b

Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. Class A Common Stock Insider Positioning

BRCB · NASDAQ

During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $64.80M worth of BRCB shares, with no selling activity reported.

3 Months

Bought

12.1M

64.80M

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+64.8M

+$64.80M

3-6 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

6-9 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

9-12 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

Top Buyers

1
CGL

Cynosure Group, Llc

Director, 10 Percent Owner:

12.0M shares1 transactions

$64.43M

2
GCH

Geyer Clay Howard

Officer: Chief Operating Officer

46.0K shares3 transactions

$300K

3
SMR

Schmidt Michael Ryan

Officer: Principal Accounting Officer

7.1K shares1 transactions

$50K

4
WJM

Wegener-Beyer Jessica Michele

Officer: Chief Marketing Officer

3.1K shares1 transactions

$20K

Top Sellers

No selling activity

Insider Activity Analysis

Net Insider Sentiment

Bullish

Strong bullish signal with $64.80M net buying. Insiders are aggressively accumulating shares, suggesting significant confidence in future prospects.

Buy/Sell Ratio

∞:1

Perfect buy/sell ratio. Only buying activity with zero selling—the most bullish possible insider signal.

Recent Trend (3 Months)

$64.80M

Very strong recent buying momentum. Recent insider purchases significantly outpace sales, suggesting near-term optimism.

Insider Participation

High Buying

4 insider buyers vs. 0 sellers. Broad-based buying across management team suggests widespread confidence.

Insider Activity Insight

Strong confluence of bullish signals: High buy/sell ratio, multiple insiders participating, and recent buying momentum all point to significant insider confidence. This level of coordinated buying often precedes positive developments.

0.00%
Dividend Yield
3Y-
5Y-
10Y-
 

brcb Dividend History

BRCB
10Y CAGR +0%
Latest $0
Annual $0
Stable dividend payments
Last Period: +0%