Bloomin' Brands, Inc.
$7.49
-4.1%Bloomin' Brands, Inc., through its subsidiaries, owns and operates casual, upscale casual, and fine dining restaurants in the United States and internationally. The company operates through two segments, U.S. and International. Its restaurant portfolio has four concepts, including Outback Steakhouse, a casual steakhouse restaurant; Carrabba's Italian Grill, a casual Italian restaurant; Bonefish Grill; and Fleming's Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar, a contemporary steakhouse. As of December 26, 2021, the company owned and operated 1,013 full-service restaurants and franchised 157 restaurants across 47 states; and 156 full-service restaurants and franchised 172 restaurants across 17 countries and Guam. The company was founded in 1988 and is based in Tampa, Florida.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is elevated (P/E 118.5).
Valuation inputs: P/E 118.5, earnings yield +0.8%, momentum -4.1%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +1.6%, ROIC -7.0%).
Profitability stack: net margin +0.1%, ROE +1.6%, ROIC -7.0%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +89.4%, momentum -4.1%, net margin +0.1%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Bloomin' Brands, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Bloomin' Brands, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Bloomin' Brands, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Thin margins leave little room for error. Cost management and pricing strategy are critical.
Operating Margin
Minimal operating profit suggests high operating costs or pricing challenges. Scalability is concerning.
Net Profit Margin
Minimal profitability after all expenses. Limited financial flexibility for reinvestment or shareholder returns.
Profitability Insight
Efficient profit conversion: Minimal margin compression from gross to net indicates lean operations and favorable tax/interest environment.
Bloomin' Brands, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Exceptional cash generation: High-quality earnings converting to growing free cash flow. The company demonstrates strong pricing power, efficient operations, and disciplined capital allocation.
Bloomin' Brands, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Financial stress indicators: Both liquidity and leverage metrics raise concerns. The company may face challenges meeting obligations and should focus on strengthening its balance sheet.
Bloomin' Brands, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that BLMN stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 9.13, with estimates ranging from a low of 8.50 to a high of 10.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 9.13, with estimates ranging from a low of 8.50 to a high of 10.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Strong upside potential. Consensus indicates attractive return opportunity with favorable risk-reward profile.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Analyst Conviction
Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.
Market Sentiment Insight
Rare opportunity: Exceptional upside potential with strong analyst consensus creates a compelling setup. The combination of significant price target premium and tight agreement suggests high-conviction undervaluation that may attract institutional capital.
Bloomin' Brands, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $1.03M and sold $27K worth of BLMN shares, resulting in $1.00M of net buying activity.
3 Months
10.0K
56.90K
0
0.00
+57K
+$57K
3-6 Months
1.0K
6.46K
0
0.00
+6K
+$6K
6-9 Months
151.5K
966.55K
4.3K
27.28K
+939K
+$939K
9-12 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
Top Buyers
Christel Eric C
Officer: Evp, Chief Financial Officer
$957K
Lal Rohit
Director
$57K
Kunkel Julie T.
Director
$16K
Top Sellers
Hafner Patrick M
Officer: Evp, Pres Outback Steakhouse
$27K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bullish signal with $1.00M net buying. Insiders are aggressively accumulating shares, suggesting significant confidence in future prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Exceptional buy/sell ratio. Buying dramatically outweighs selling—one of the strongest possible insider signals.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Very strong recent buying momentum. Recent insider purchases significantly outpace sales, suggesting near-term optimism.
Insider Participation
3 insider buyers vs. 1 sellers. Broad-based buying across management team suggests widespread confidence.
Insider Activity Insight
Strong confluence of bullish signals: High buy/sell ratio, multiple insiders participating, and recent buying momentum all point to significant insider confidence. This level of coordinated buying often precedes positive developments.
blmn Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on BLMN by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.