AxoGen, Inc.

AxoGen, Inc.

AXGNยทNASDAQ

$40.63

+4.9%
HealthcareMedical - Devices

AxoGen, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and markets surgical solutions for physical damage or transection to peripheral nerves. The company's products include Avance Nerve Graft, a biologically active off-the-shelf processed human nerve allograft for bridging severed nerves without the comorbidities associated with a second surgical site; AxoGuard Nerve Connector, a porcine submucosa extracellular matrix (ECM) coaptation aid for tensionless repair of severed peripheral nerves; and AxoGuard Nerve Protector, a porcine submucosa ECM product that is used to wrap and protect damaged peripheral nerves, as well as reinforces the nerve reconstruction while preventing soft tissue attachments. Its products also comprise Axoguard Nerve Cap, a porcine submucosa ECM product that is used to protect a peripheral nerve end, as well as separates the nerve from the surrounding environment to reduce the development of symptomatic or painful neuroma; and Avive Soft Tissue Membrane, a processed human umbilical cord membrane that can be used as a resorbable soft tissue covering to separate tissues in the surgical bed. In addition, the company offers AxoTouch two point discriminator, a tool that is used for measuring the innervation density of surface area of the skin. It provides its products to hospitals, surgery centers, and military hospitals plastic reconstructive surgeons, orthopedic and plastic hand surgeons, and various oral and maxillofacial surgeons in the United States, Canada, Germany, the United Kingdom and other European countries, South Korea, and internationally. AxoGen, Inc. is headquartered in Alachua, Florida.

At a Glance

Live Snapshot
Market Cap$2.16B
EPS-0.3400
P/E Ratio-119.50
Earnings Date08/04/2026

Intrinsic Alpha Methodology

Thesis Lenses

Signal ยท Driver ยท Risk

Signal

Medium confidence

Valuation multiple is compressed (P/E -119.5).

Valuation inputs: P/E -119.5, earnings yield N/A, momentum +4.9%.

If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.

Driver

High confidence

Return profile is soft (ROE -12.2%, ROIC -3.9%).

Profitability stack: net margin -7.0%, ROE -12.2%, ROIC -3.9%.

Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.

Risk

High confidence

Risk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.

Risk factors: liabilities/assets +41.9%, momentum +4.9%, net margin -7.0%.

Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.

axgn

AxoGen, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory

AXGN ยท NASDAQ

Loading price and EPS data...

AxoGen, Inc.

AxoGen, Inc. Fair Value Envelope

AXGN ยท NASDAQ

Our analysis suggests that AXGN has a fair value of HIDDEN per share in the Base Case projection. With shares currently trading at $40.63, this represents a potential HIDDEN relative to our calculated worth for AxoGen, Inc..

Intrinsic Value
Current Price: $40.63
3Y-51.0%
5Y-43.0%
10Y-28.0%
3Y+63.0%
5Y+101.0%
10Y+448.0%
3Y-46.0%
5Y-34.0%
10Y+9.0%
3Y-105.0%
5Y-108.0%
10Y-107.0%
3Y-92.0%
5Y-91.0%
10Y-76.0%
3Y+13.0%
5Y+10.0%
10Y+378.0%
AxoGen, Inc.

AxoGen, Inc. Profit Bridge

AXGN ยท NASDAQ
Revenue225.21M
Cost of Goods Sold (57.85M)
Gross Profit167.35M
Operating Expenses (175.20M)
Operating Income-7.85M
Interest Expense (7.70M)
Other Income/Expense-7.85M
Pretax Income-15.70M
Income Tax (0.00)
Net Income-15.70M
Net Income
-15.70M

Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin

74.3%

Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.

Operating Margin

-3.5%

Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.

Net Profit Margin

-7.0%

Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.

Profitability Insight

Margin squeeze alert: Healthy gross margins but weak operating margins suggest excessive operating expenses. Cost optimization could unlock significant value.

74.31%
Gross Profit Margin
-2%
3Y-5.0%
5Y-8.0%
10Y-12.0%
-3.49%
Operating Profit Margin
99%
3Y-84.0%
5Y-83.0%
10Y-82.0%
-6.97%
Net Profit Margin
31%
3Y-67.0%
5Y-67.0%
10Y-80.0%
-12.19%
Return on Equity
27%
3Y-57.0%
5Y-37.0%
10Y-87.0%
-7.08%
Return on Assets
45%
3Y-52.0%
5Y-40.0%
10Y-77.0%
-3.91%
Return on Invested Capital
109%
3Y-77.0%
5Y-70.0%
10Y-81.0%
AXGN

AxoGen, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine

AXGN ยท NASDAQ
Net Income-15.70M
Depreciation & Amortization8.19M
Stock-Based Compensation30.11M
Change in Working Capital-24.62M
Others2.83M
Capital Expenditures-3.75M
Free Cash Flow-2.93M

Cash Flow Quality Analysis

FCF Conversion Rate

18.7%

Weak cash conversion. Significant portion of earnings not converting to cashโ€”review working capital trends and capital intensity.

CapEx Intensity

461.2%

Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.

FCF Growth Trend

-26763.6%

Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.

Working Capital Impact

-$24.62M

Significant working capital drain. Growth may be consuming cash through inventory buildup or receivables extensionโ€”monitor closely.

Cash Flow Quality Insight

Deteriorating cash generation: Both declining FCF and weak conversion rate signal fundamental challenges. Investigate margin pressure, rising costs, or working capital issues.

axgn

AxoGen, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile

AXGN ยท NASDAQ
Cash & Cash Equivalents82.65M
Net Receivables28.31M
Inventory46.07M
Other Current Assets27.67M
Total Current Assets185 M
Property, Plant & Equipment97.32M
Goodwill & Intangible Assets7.27M
Long-Term Investments0.00
Other Non-Current Assets192.00K
Total Non-Current Assets98 M
Total Assets
289.49M

Financial Health Analysis

Current Ratio

7.10x

Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.

Debt-to-Equity Ratio

0.18x

Conservative capital structure. The company relies primarily on equity financing, indicating low financial risk.

Working Capital

159 M

Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.

Asset Composition

64% Current

Asset-light business model with high liquidity. Majority of assets are easily convertible to cash.

Financial Health Insight

Strong financial foundation: Excellent liquidity combined with conservative leverage suggests the company is well-positioned to weather economic uncertainties and fund growth opportunities.

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AxoGen, Inc. Street Expectations Map

AXGN ยท NASDAQ

Wall Street analysts project that AXGN stock may experience modest gains over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 44.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 36.00 to a high of 50.00.

Lowest Target
36.00
-11.40%
Consensus Target
44.00
8.29%
Highest Target
50.00
23.06%

The consensus 1-year price target stands at 44.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 36.00 to a high of 50.00.

Analyst Consensus Analysis

Upside Potential

+8.3%

Moderate upside. Analysts expect positive returns but with limited margin of safety. Consider entry timing.

Analyst Agreement

31.8% spread

Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.

Risk-Reward Profile

2.02x

Favorable risk-reward. Potential upside significantly exceeds downside risk, offering asymmetric return profile attractive for risk-tolerant investors.

Analyst Conviction

High

Positive outlook with reasonable agreement. Analysts generally optimistic about prospects with manageable uncertainty.

Market Sentiment Insight

Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.

axgn

AxoGen, Inc. Insider Positioning

AXGN ยท NASDAQ

During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $5.98M worth of AXGN shares, with no buying activity reported.

3 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

38.8K

1.64M

Net Activity

-1.6M

-$1.64M

3-6 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

118.9K

3.65M

Net Activity

-3.7M

-$3.65M

6-9 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

39.6K

684.46K

Net Activity

-684K

-$684K

9-12 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

Top Buyers

No buying activity

Top Sellers

1
DMD

Dale Michael D

Officer: Chief Executive Officer

86.5K sharesโ€ข2 transactions

$2.67M

2
WKJ

Weiler Kathy Johnson

Director

16.3K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$721K

3
BWPM

Burke William P. Mr.

Director

39.6K sharesโ€ข4 transactions

$684K

4
JJ

Johnson John

Director

11.1K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$478K

5
TJA

Tyndall Joseph A.

Director

14.2K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$441K

Insider Activity Analysis

Net Insider Sentiment

Bearish

Strong bearish signal with $5.98M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.

Buy/Sell Ratio

0.00:1

Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.

Recent Trend (3 Months)

$1.64M

Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchasesโ€”may warrant investigation into company developments.

Insider Participation

High Selling

5 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.

Insider Activity Insight

Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.

No Dividend Yield Data

AXGN has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.

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axgn Dividend History

AXGN
10Y CAGR +0%
Latest $1
Annual $1
Stable dividend payments
Last Period: +0%