AST SpaceMobile, Inc.
$107.73
-8.8%AST SpaceMobile, Inc. operates space-based cellular broadband network for mobile phones. Its SpaceMobile service provides mobile broadband services for users traveling in and out of areas without terrestrial mobile services on land, at sea, or in flight. The company is headquartered in Midland, Texas.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -80.4).
Valuation inputs: P/E -80.4, earnings yield N/A, momentum -8.8%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -18.6%, ROIC -5.9%).
Profitability stack: net margin -4.8%, ROE -18.6%, ROIC -5.9%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +52.3%, momentum -8.8%, net margin -4.8%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
Performance Analysis
EPS Growth
Positive earnings growth shows the company is improving its profitability over time.
Price-EPS Relationship
Stock price is moving in line with earnings growth—a healthy sign of fundamental-driven valuation.
Stock Price Change
Over the 1Y period, stock price has increased by 275.5%.
P/E Ratio (TTM)
Relatively low P/E may indicate undervaluation or lower growth expectations.
Key Insight
With growing earnings (+4.8%) and a relatively low P/E ratio (-80.4x), the stock may be undervalued if the growth trend continues.
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Profitability Insight
Margin squeeze alert: Healthy gross margins but weak operating margins suggest excessive operating expenses. Cost optimization could unlock significant value.
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Elevated leverage. Debt exceeds equity, which amplifies both gains and risks. Monitor debt servicing ability.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Balanced asset mix between current and non-current assets, typical of many stable businesses.
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that ASTS stock may see slight declines over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 100.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 80.00 to a high of 108.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 100.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 80.00 to a high of 108.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Downside risk. Current price above analyst targets indicates potential overvaluation. Exercise caution and review catalysts.
Analyst Agreement
Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.
Risk-Reward Profile
Unfavorable risk-reward. Downside risk exceeds upside potential. Consider defensive positioning or alternative opportunities.
Analyst Conviction
Bearish or uncertain outlook. Limited upside or poor consensus suggests challenges ahead or fundamental concerns.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $168K and sold $446.58M worth of ASTS shares, resulting in $446.41M of net selling activity.
3 Months
0
0.00
3.1M
276.05M
-276.0M
-$276.05M
3-6 Months
2.0K
149.14K
2.3M
160.40M
-160.3M
-$160.26M
6-9 Months
375
19.05K
96.0K
5.57M
-5.5M
-$5.55M
9-12 Months
0
0.00
111.0K
4.56M
-4.6M
-$4.56M
Top Buyers
Larson Keith R
Director
$149K
Cisneros Adriana
Director
$19K
Top Sellers
Mikitani Hiroshi
10 Percent Owner
$270.90M
American Tower Corp /Ma/
Other: Member Of 10% Owner Group
$159.63M
Yao Huiwen
Officer: Chief Technology Officer
$8.89M
Johnson Andrew Martin
Director, Officer: Cfo And Clo
$2.06M
Wisniewski Scott
Officer: President
$1.78M
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $446.41M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 2 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
No Dividend Yield Data
ASTS has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
asts Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on ASTS by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.