Astrana Health, Inc.
$36.70
-2.8%Astrana Health, Inc., Inc., a physician-centric technology-powered healthcare management company, provides medical care services in the United States. It operates through three segments: Care Partners, Care Delivery, and Care Enablement. The company is leveraging its proprietary population health management and healthcare delivery platform, operates an integrated, value-based healthcare model which empowers the providers in its network to deliver care to its patients. It offers care coordination services to patients, families, primary care physicians, specialists, acute care hospitals, alternative sites of inpatient care, physician groups, and health plans. The company's physician network consists of primary care physicians, specialist physicians and extenders, and hospitalists. It serves patients, primarily covered by private or public insurance, such as Medicare, Medicaid, and health maintenance organization plans; and non-insured patients. The company was formerly known as Apollo Medical Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Astrana Health, Inc. in February 2024. Astrana Health, Inc. was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Alhambra, California.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is elevated (P/E 79.8).
Valuation inputs: P/E 79.8, earnings yield +1.3%, momentum -2.8%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +2.9%, ROIC +2.9%).
Profitability stack: net margin +0.7%, ROE +2.9%, ROIC +2.9%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +74.8%, momentum -2.8%, net margin +0.7%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Astrana Health, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Astrana Health, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Astrana Health, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Thin margins leave little room for error. Cost management and pricing strategy are critical.
Operating Margin
Minimal operating profit suggests high operating costs or pricing challenges. Scalability is concerning.
Net Profit Margin
Minimal profitability after all expenses. Limited financial flexibility for reinvestment or shareholder returns.
Effective Tax Rate
Higher tax burden may reflect limited tax optimization or operations in high-tax jurisdictions.
Profitability Insight
Efficient profit conversion: Minimal margin compression from gross to net indicates lean operations and favorable tax/interest environment.
Astrana Health, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Minimal working capital impact on FCF. Changes in operating assets and liabilities well-managed.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Exceptional cash generation: High-quality earnings converting to growing free cash flow. The company demonstrates strong pricing power, efficient operations, and disciplined capital allocation.
Astrana Health, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Acceptable liquidity, but monitor closely. Current assets just barely cover current liabilities.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Positive working capital, but relatively tight. The company should monitor cash flow carefully.
Asset Composition
Balanced asset mix between current and non-current assets, typical of many stable businesses.
Astrana Health, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that ASTH stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 44.60, with estimates ranging from a low of 40.00 to a high of 50.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 44.60, with estimates ranging from a low of 40.00 to a high of 50.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Strong upside potential. Consensus indicates attractive return opportunity with favorable risk-reward profile.
Analyst Agreement
Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.
Analyst Conviction
Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.
Market Sentiment Insight
Rare opportunity: Exceptional upside potential with strong analyst consensus creates a compelling setup. The combination of significant price target premium and tight agreement suggests high-conviction undervaluation that may attract institutional capital.
Astrana Health, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $364K worth of ASTH shares, with no selling activity reported.
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3-6 Months
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6-9 Months
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9-12 Months
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Top Buyers
Marsh Linda
Director
$364K
Top Sellers
No selling activity
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bullish signal with $364K net buying. Insiders are aggressively accumulating shares, suggesting significant confidence in future prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Perfect buy/sell ratio. Only buying activity with zero selling—the most bullish possible insider signal.
Insider Participation
1 insider buyers vs. 0 sellers. Broad-based buying across management team suggests widespread confidence.
Insider Activity Insight
Unanimous insider buying: Zero selling combined with active buying is rare and typically very bullish. Insiders appear to see significant upside with limited downside risk.
asth Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on ASTH by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.