Arvinas, Inc.
$7.70
-3.8%Arvinas, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of therapies to degrade disease-causing proteins. Its lead product candidates include Bavdegalutamide, a proteolysis targeting chimera (PROTAC) protein degrader that is in phase I clinical trial targeting the androgen receptor (AR) protein for the treatment of men with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC); ARV-471, a PROTAC protein degrader targeting the estrogen receptor protein for the treatment of patients with metastatic ER positive/HER2 negative breast cancer; and ARV-766 an investigational orally bioavailable PROTAC protein degrader for the treatment of men with mCRPC. The company has collaborations with Pfizer Inc., Genentech, Inc., F. Hoffman-La Roche Ltd., and Bayer AG. Arvinas, Inc. was founded in 2013 and is based in New Haven, Connecticut.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -6.0).
Valuation inputs: P/E -6.0, earnings yield N/A, momentum -3.8%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -18.6%, ROIC -19.9%).
Profitability stack: net margin -30.8%, ROE -18.6%, ROIC -19.9%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +39.6%, momentum -3.8%, net margin -30.8%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Arvinas, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
Performance Analysis
EPS Growth
Declining earnings warrant investigation into business challenges and competitive position.
Price-EPS Relationship
Price is rising despite declining earnings—caution advised as valuation may be stretched.
Stock Price Change
Over the 1Y period, stock price has increased by 10.8%.
P/E Ratio (TTM)
Relatively low P/E may indicate undervaluation or lower growth expectations.
Key Insight
Despite declining earnings (-222.8%), the stock price has risen (+10.8%). This disconnect suggests investors may be optimistic about future turnaround, but earnings recovery is critical to sustain the valuation.
Arvinas, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Arvinas, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Profitability Insight
Margin squeeze alert: Healthy gross margins but weak operating margins suggest excessive operating expenses. Cost optimization could unlock significant value.
Arvinas, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Declining FCF warrants attention. Investigate whether due to temporary factors or fundamental deterioration.
Working Capital Impact
Significant working capital drain. Growth may be consuming cash through inventory buildup or receivables extension—monitor closely.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Working capital strain: Significant cash tied up in operations. Monitor receivables collection, inventory turns, and payment terms to optimize cash conversion cycle.
Arvinas, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Balanced capital structure with moderate leverage. Equity exceeds debt, suggesting healthy financial stability.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Asset-light business model with high liquidity. Majority of assets are easily convertible to cash.
Financial Health Insight
Strong financial foundation: Excellent liquidity combined with conservative leverage suggests the company is well-positioned to weather economic uncertainties and fund growth opportunities.
Arvinas, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that ARVN stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 14.75, with estimates ranging from a low of 10.00 to a high of 20.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 14.75, with estimates ranging from a low of 10.00 to a high of 20.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
High uncertainty. Very wide target spread indicates significant disagreement among analysts—major valuation uncertainty or transformation underway.
Analyst Conviction
High uncertainty: Wide dispersion indicates analysts struggle to agree on valuation—proceed with caution and independent analysis.
Market Sentiment Insight
High risk, high reward: Substantial upside potential exists, but wide analyst disagreement signals execution risk or unclear catalysts. Thorough due diligence essential before committing capital.
Arvinas, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $495K and sold $862K worth of ARVN shares, resulting in $366K of net selling activity.
3 Months
20.0K
268.07K
52.1K
523.47K
-255K
-$255K
3-6 Months
0
0.00
27.7K
335.83K
-336K
-$336K
6-9 Months
30.0K
227.01K
230
2.27K
+225K
+$225K
9-12 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
Top Buyers
Morrison Briggs
Director
$495K
Top Sellers
Berkowitz Noah
Officer: Chief Medical Officer
$249K
Saik Andrew
Officer: Chief Financial Officer
$172K
Teel Randy
Director, Officer: President And Ceo
$168K
Cacace Angela M
Officer: Chief Scientific Officer
$163K
Houston John G
Director
$62K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Slightly bearish with $366K net selling. Selling modestly exceeds buying, which could be routine diversification rather than concern.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Moderately negative ratio. Selling is roughly double the buying, which may be routine or signal caution.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Negative recent trend with net selling. Insiders have reduced positions in recent months, which could signal caution.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 1 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
No Dividend Yield Data
ARVN has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
arvn Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on ARVN by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.