Arrive AI Inc.
$1.65
+0.0000%Arrive AI Inc. operates subscription-based platform, a Mailbox-as-a-Service. Its mailbox enables automated delivery of packages, products, food, etc. on-demand, smart, secure, climate-controlled deliveries by couriers, drones, and robots. The company was formerly known as Arrive Technology Inc. and changed its name to Arrive AI Inc. in September 2024. Arrive AI Inc. was incorporated in 2020 and is based in Fishers, Indiana.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -6.6).
Valuation inputs: P/E -6.6, earnings yield N/A, momentum 0.0%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -5.2%, ROIC -1.2%).
Profitability stack: net margin -113.3%, ROE -5.2%, ROIC -1.2%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +77.4%, momentum 0.0%, net margin -113.3%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Arrive AI Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Arrive AI Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Arrive AI Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Profitability Insight
Margin squeeze alert: Healthy gross margins but weak operating margins suggest excessive operating expenses. Cost optimization could unlock significant value.
Arrive AI Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Moderate conversion rate. Some gap between earnings and cash flow may warrant investigation into working capital or non-cash items.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Minimal working capital impact on FCF. Changes in operating assets and liabilities well-managed.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Working capital strain: Significant cash tied up in operations. Monitor receivables collection, inventory turns, and payment terms to optimize cash conversion cycle.
Arrive AI Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Financial stress indicators: Both liquidity and leverage metrics raise concerns. The company may face challenges meeting obligations and should focus on strengthening its balance sheet.
Arrive AI Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that ARAI stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 12.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 12.00 to a high of 12.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 12.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 12.00 to a high of 12.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Analyst Conviction
Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.
Market Sentiment Insight
Rare opportunity: Exceptional upside potential with strong analyst consensus creates a compelling setup. The combination of significant price target premium and tight agreement suggests high-conviction undervaluation that may attract institutional capital.
Arrive AI Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $44K and sold $7.99M worth of ARAI shares, resulting in $7.95M of net selling activity.
3 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
3-6 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
6-9 Months
12.5K
43.87K
0
0.00
+44K
+$44K
9-12 Months
0
0.00
576.8K
7.99M
-8.0M
-$7.99M
Top Buyers
O'Toole Daniel Steven
Director, 10 Percent Owner, Officer: Chief Executive Officer
$39K
Shah Neerav Dilip
Director, Officer: Chief Strategy Officer
$5K
Top Sellers
O'Toole Daniel Steven
Director, 10 Percent Owner, Officer: Chief Executive Officer
$6.02M
Ritchison John David
Director
$1.00M
Shah Neerav Dilip
Director, Officer: Chief Strategy Officer
$900K
O'Toole Lora Taylor
Officer: Vp Business Development
$64K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $7.95M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Insider Participation
4 insider sellers vs. 2 buyers. More insiders selling than buying suggests cautious or negative sentiment.
No Dividend Yield Data
ARAI has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
arai Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on ARAI by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.