Allegiant Travel Company
$82.98
-6.9%Allegiant Travel Company, a leisure travel company, provides travel services and products to residents of under-served cities in the United States. The company offers scheduled air transportation on limited-frequency, nonstop flights between under-served cities and leisure destinations. As of February 14, 2022, it operated a fleet of 110 Airbus A320 series aircraft. The company also provides air-related services and products in conjunction with air transportation, including baggage fees, advance seat assignments, travel protection products, priority boarding, a customer convenience fee, food and beverage purchases on board, and other air-related services, as well as use of its call center for purchases. In addition, it offers third party travel products, such as hotel rooms and ground transportation, such as rental cars and hotel shuttle products; and air transportation services through fixed fee agreements and charter service on a year-round and ad-hoc basis. Further, the company operates a golf course. Allegiant Travel Company was founded in 1997 and is based in Las Vegas, Nevada.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -33.5).
Valuation inputs: P/E -33.5, earnings yield N/A, momentum -6.9%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -4.3%, ROIC +4.3%).
Profitability stack: net margin -1.7%, ROE -4.3%, ROIC +4.3%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +75.0%, momentum -6.9%, net margin -1.7%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Allegiant Travel Company Market vs Earnings Trajectory
Performance Analysis
EPS Growth
Strong earnings growth indicates robust business expansion and improving profitability.
Price-EPS Relationship
Stock price is moving in line with earnings growth—a healthy sign of fundamental-driven valuation.
Stock Price Change
Over the 1Y period, stock price has increased by 47.2%.
P/E Ratio (TTM)
Relatively low P/E may indicate undervaluation or lower growth expectations.
Key Insight
Strong earnings growth (+87.5%) is outpacing price appreciation (+47.2%), potentially indicating an attractive entry point as the market may not have fully recognized the improving fundamentals.
Allegiant Travel Company Fair Value Envelope
Allegiant Travel Company Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Thin margins leave little room for error. Cost management and pricing strategy are critical.
Operating Margin
Acceptable margins but limited operational leverage. Operating expense control is important.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Profitability Insight
Non-operating losses: Core business is profitable but other expenses (interest, taxes, one-time items) are driving net losses. Review capital structure and non-operating items.
Allegiant Travel Company Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.
CapEx Intensity
Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Capital-intensive growth: Heavy reinvestment limits current cash available but may drive future returns. Assess whether CapEx supports compelling growth opportunities with adequate ROI.
Allegiant Travel Company Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Conservative capital structure. The company relies primarily on equity financing, indicating low financial risk.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Asset-light business model with high liquidity. Majority of assets are easily convertible to cash.
Allegiant Travel Company Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that ALGT stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 109.13, with estimates ranging from a low of 95.00 to a high of 130.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 109.13, with estimates ranging from a low of 95.00 to a high of 130.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.
Analyst Conviction
Positive outlook with reasonable agreement. Analysts generally optimistic about prospects with manageable uncertainty.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
Allegiant Travel Company Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $12.37M worth of ALGT shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
3-6 Months
0
0.00
100.0K
11.37M
-11.4M
-$11.37M
6-9 Months
0
0.00
12.3K
758.75K
-759K
-$759K
9-12 Months
0
0.00
5.1K
247.34K
-247K
-$247K
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Gallagher Maurice J Jr
Director, 10 Percent Owner, Officer: Executive Chairman
$11.37M
Anderson Gregory Clark
Officer: President & Ceo
$375K
Richins Micah John
Officer: President, Sunseeker Resorts
$226K
Ellmer Gary
Director
$98K
Neal Robert James
Officer: Evp And Cfo
$84K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $12.37M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
algt Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on ALGT by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.