Akebia Therapeutics, Inc.
$0.97
+3.6%Akebia Therapeutics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of therapeutics for patients with kidney diseases. The company's lead product investigational product candidate is vadadustat, an oral therapy, which is in Phase III development for the treatment of anemia due to chronic kidney disease (CKD) in dialysis-dependent and non-dialysis dependent adult patients. It also offers Auryxia, a ferric citrate that is used to control the serum phosphorus levels in adult patients with DD-CKD on dialysis; and the treatment of iron deficiency anemia in adult patients with CKD not on dialysis. Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. has collaboration agreements with Otsuka Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd. for the development and commercialization of vadadustat in the United States, the European Union, Russia, China, Australia, Canada, the Middle East, and other countries; and Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma Corporation for the development and commercialization of vadadustat in Japan and other Asian countries, as well as research and license agreement with Janssen Pharmaceutica NV for the development and commercialization of hypoxia-inducible factor prolyl hydroxylase targeted compounds worldwide. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -46.6).
Valuation inputs: P/E -46.6, earnings yield N/A, momentum +3.6%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -16.4%, ROIC +9.3%).
Profitability stack: net margin -2.3%, ROE -16.4%, ROIC +9.3%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +91.3%, momentum +3.6%, net margin -2.3%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Acceptable margins but limited operational leverage. Operating expense control is important.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Profitability Insight
Margin squeeze alert: Healthy gross margins but weak operating margins suggest excessive operating expenses. Cost optimization could unlock significant value.
Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Acceptable liquidity, but monitor closely. Current assets just barely cover current liabilities.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Positive working capital, but relatively tight. The company should monitor cash flow carefully.
Asset Composition
Asset-light business model with high liquidity. Majority of assets are easily convertible to cash.
Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that AKBA stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 4.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 4.00 to a high of 4.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 4.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 4.00 to a high of 4.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Analyst Conviction
Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.
Market Sentiment Insight
Rare opportunity: Exceptional upside potential with strong analyst consensus creates a compelling setup. The combination of significant price target premium and tight agreement suggests high-conviction undervaluation that may attract institutional capital.
Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $87K and sold $202K worth of AKBA shares, resulting in $115K of net selling activity.
3 Months
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0
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3-6 Months
69.3K
86.59K
36.1K
50.24K
+36K
+$36K
6-9 Months
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0
0.00
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9-12 Months
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0.00
41.3K
151.62K
-152K
-$152K
Top Buyers
Butler John P.
Director, Officer: Ceo And President
$87K
Top Sellers
Ostrowski Erik
Officer: Svp, Cfo, Cbo & Treasurer
$152K
Malabre Richard C
Officer: Svp, Chief Accounting Officer
$50K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Negative insider sentiment with $115K net selling. Selling notably exceeds buying, warranting closer scrutiny of company fundamentals.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Weak buy/sell ratio. Selling significantly exceeds buying—monitor for potential fundamental concerns.
Insider Participation
2 insider sellers vs. 1 buyers. More insiders selling than buying suggests cautious or negative sentiment.
No Dividend Yield Data
AKBA has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
akba Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on AKBA by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.