ADTRAN Holdings, Inc.
$18.26
-3.8%ADTRAN Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides end-to-end fiber networking solutions for communications service provider, enterprises, and government customers in the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, Mexico, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Network Solutions, and Services & Support. The company offers fiber access and fiber to the node platforms; transceivers, cables, and other miscellaneous materials; passive optical network optical line terminals; fiber to the distribution point Gfast distribution point units; cabinet and outside plant enclosures and services; packet optical transports; fixed wireless access platforms; and network management and subscriber services, and control and orchestration software. It also provides broadband customer premises solutions, ethernet switches and routers, residential gateways, cloud-based software-as-a-service management platforms, virtual wireless local area networks, Internet of Things gateways, pre-sale and post-sale technical support, and multi-gigabit mesh Wi-Fi gateways. In addition, the company offers time division multiplexed and asynchronous transfer mode-based aggregation systems and customer devices; and high-bit-rate and asymmetric digital subscriber line, and other technologies. Further, it provides other access and aggregation, subscriber and experience, and traditional and other products, software, and services. Additionally, the company engages in the provision of planning, engineering, program management, maintenance, installation, and commissioning services to implement customer network solutions; and customer devices solutions into consumer, small business, and enterprise locations. ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. is headquartered in Huntsville, Alabama.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -15.2).
Valuation inputs: P/E -15.2, earnings yield N/A, momentum -3.8%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -31.3%, ROIC -1.8%).
Profitability stack: net margin -4.2%, ROE -31.3%, ROIC -1.8%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +56.9%, momentum -3.8%, net margin -4.2%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Strong gross margins indicate healthy pricing and efficient production or service delivery.
Operating Margin
Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Profitability Insight
Margin squeeze alert: Healthy gross margins but weak operating margins suggest excessive operating expenses. Cost optimization could unlock significant value.
ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.
CapEx Intensity
Moderate capital requirements typical of many stable businesses. Healthy balance between reinvestment and cash generation.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Strong liquidity. The company has adequate resources to meet short-term liabilities.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Elevated leverage. Debt exceeds equity, which amplifies both gains and risks. Monitor debt servicing ability.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Balanced asset mix between current and non-current assets, typical of many stable businesses.
ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that ADTN stock may see slight declines over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 18.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 18.00 to a high of 18.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 18.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 18.00 to a high of 18.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Fair value territory. Stock trading near consensus target suggests limited near-term catalysts. Focus on fundamental developments.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Risk-Reward Profile
Balanced risk-reward. Upside and downside potential relatively symmetric. Suitable for moderate risk tolerance with conviction in thesis.
Analyst Conviction
Neutral sentiment. Fair value pricing with moderate agreement suggests wait-and-see approach or catalyst-driven opportunity.
Market Sentiment Insight
Efficient pricing: Stock trading at fair value with strong consensus suggests market has priced in expectations. Look for fundamental inflection points or new catalysts to drive meaningful moves.
ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $450K and sold $945K worth of ADTN shares, resulting in $495K of net selling activity.
3 Months
0
0.00
50.6K
744.54K
-745K
-$745K
3-6 Months
0
0.00
14.4K
148.24K
-148K
-$148K
6-9 Months
59.9K
449.75K
0
0.00
+450K
+$450K
9-12 Months
0
0.00
5.7K
52.10K
-52K
-$52K
Top Buyers
Stanton Thomas R
Director, Officer: Chairman & Ceo
$300K
Theodosopoulos Nikos
Director
$100K
Santo Timothy P
Officer: Svp Of Finance; Cfo
$49K
Top Sellers
Glingener Christoph
Officer: Chief Technology Officer
$607K
Jacqueline Hourigan Rice
Director
$148K
Wilson James Denson Jr
Officer: Chief Revenue Officer
$137K
Stanton Thomas R
Director, Officer: Chairman & Ceo
$52K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Negative insider sentiment with $495K net selling. Selling notably exceeds buying, warranting closer scrutiny of company fundamentals.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Weak buy/sell ratio. Selling significantly exceeds buying—monitor for potential fundamental concerns.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
4 insider sellers vs. 3 buyers. More insiders selling than buying suggests cautious or negative sentiment.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
adtn Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on ADTN by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.