ACDC - NASDAQ

Greetings, and welcome to the ProFrac Holding Corporation Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Michael Messina, Director of Finance. Thank you. You may begin, sir.

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us for ProFrac Holding Corp's conference call and webcast to review our third quarter 2023 results. With me today are Matt Wilks, Executive Chairman; Ladd Wilks, Chief Executive Officer; and Lance Turner, Chief Financial Officer. Following my remarks, management will provide a high-level commentary on the financial highlights of the third quarter of 2023. As well as the business outlook before opening the call up to your questions. There will be a replay of today's call available by webcast on the company's website at pfholdingscorp.com. As well as the telephonic recording available until November 16, 2023. More information on how to access these replay features is included in the company's earnings release. Please note that information reported on this call speaks only as of today, November 9, 2023, and therefore, you are advised that any time-sensitive information may no longer be accurate as of the time of any replay listening or transcript reading. Also, comments on this call may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the United States federal securities laws, including management's expectations of future financial and business performance. These forward-looking statements reflect the current views of ProFrac's management and are not guarantees of future performance. Various risks, uncertainties and contingencies could cause actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from those expressed in management's forward-looking statements. The listener or reader is encouraged to read ProFrac's Form 10-K and other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which can be found at sec.gov or on the company's Investor Relations website section under the SEC Filings tab to understand those risks, uncertainties and contingencies. The comments today also include certain non-GAAP financial measures as well as other adjusted figures to exclude the contribution of FloTek. Additional details and reconciliations to the most directly comparable consolidated and GAAP financial measures are included in the quarterly earnings press release, which can be found on the company's website. And now I'd like to turn the call over to ProFrac Executive Chairman, Mr. Matt Wilks.

Thanks, Michael, and good morning, everyone. After my prepared remarks, Ladd will take you deeper dive into the performance of our subsidiaries, and Lance will provide additional insight into our financial performance. Our third quarter results were challenged, but we took the necessary actions to position ProFrac for future success despite these challenges. We generated $149 million in adjusted EBITDA, reduced our net debt by $123 million and generated $73 million of free cash flow. As we grew through acquisitions and scaled up our Stimulation segment, we maintained a commercial strategy that was focused on flexibility, which ultimately put ProFrac at a disadvantage as the industry softened. We have now adapted with a multipronged strategy suited for all customer types and have built a more dedicated business model with more through cycle resiliency. We continue to operate with utilization and cost control in mind. Further reducing our number of active fleets in the third quarter and believe the actions we have taken will position ProFrac for the fourth quarter and beyond. I am also encouraged to see the industry moderate utilization by prudently managing deployed horsepower. These actions give us a strong foundation for 2024 and a positive outlook to reactivate some of the fleets that we idled in the second half of 2023. Over the past 18 months, we have built ProFrac into the premier vertically integrated pressure pumping service provider in the market, with a robust platform, including electric, dual fuel and traditional diesel frac equipment complemented by our dominant market position in proppants. We offer customers best-in-class industry-leading services. This has earned us the reputation as one of the safest and most efficient pressure pumping providers in the industry. Combined with our persistent cost control priorities across the organization, we are also focused on how we can best realize the full value of our assets. On October 2, we announced that we are evaluating strategic options meant to unlock the full value of our Proppant Production segment, which operates through our wholly owned subsidiary, Alpine Silica. The first step of this process is to increase throughput and diversify the customer base of the sand mines. We are confident that we will have a significant amount of volume contracted with third-party customers in 2024. Our confidence stems from the fact that we have already received commitments for 52% of our capacity with third-party customers, and are in final discussions with other independent customers that will leave us sold out in 2024. We see tremendous potential at Alpine, which should significantly improve profitability and facilitate a more stable earnings profile with higher cash conversion. The second step of this process is to explore and pursue asset level financing. Positive conversations with lenders around this topic are currently underway. And we believe the risk profile of the Proppant Production segment is very different than the Stimulation Services segment. This, in turn, opens Proppant segment up to a different lender base as well as credit requirements. We believe an asset-level financing will simplify our capital structure and extend our current maturities. We anticipate being able to announce further details before year-end. The third step of this process is to exploit the captive value at Alpine for our shareholders, which could take various forms, including an IPO of the Proppant segment. Our objective here is to recapitalize the business not to divest the business away from our control. We are actively evaluating the options, and we'll take the best path forward to accomplish this objective for all stakeholders. Now I would like to discuss our vertical integration strategy. Our vertical integration strategy has always been part of our vision for ProFrac, which we believe provides a unique competitive advantage. We want to be the preferred pressure pumper in the industry, and we also want to provide materials to our customers because we believe the supply chain of frac materials represents value that should be optimized and accretive for customers. That has not changed. We have already begun positioning Alpine Silica to operate as an independent entity. What I mean by that is if Alpine can sell sand at a higher price to a third party, then they will sell it to that third-party. If ProFrac can buy sand at a lower price or at a more optimal location, they will do so. This will ensure that we secure the best product for our customers. The goal of this strategy is to build a sustainable foundation of volumes from customers of our Stimulation Services Segment as well as third-party proppant customers and competitors enabling Alpine to maximize utilization and reduce its cost per ton. We will continue to execute upon our strategic goals and maintain focus on our key priorities. That is to create long-term value for our stakeholders and provide best-in-class services to our customers. We believe the moves of the last year, this year, and our positioning into 2024 will enable us to accomplish our objectives. With that, I'll turn the call over to Ladd.

Thank you, Matt. As always, I'd like to thank our team for their hard work and dedication as they continue their best-in-class service to our customers. We firmly believe that our great customer service distinguishes ProFrac in the market and is a direct result of the strong culture within our teams to continually serve our customers. Starting with the Stimulation Services segment. We announced that we reduced our fleet count to accommodate full utilization. As a result of these fleet reductions, experienced improved efficiencies thus far and are focused on minimizing any impact from the holidays and seasonal weather to maintain these efficiencies through the fourth quarter. Additionally, we have already begun gearing up and preparing fleets for reactivation as early as December to accommodate customer demand. We remain focused on dedicated agreements with operators at favorable prices. Current pricing levels have been stable over the last couple of quarters and are expected to remain at similar levels in the fourth quarter and heading into next year. The visibility we have now suggest we will be operating at least 30 fleets in Q1 of next year, and we continue to pursue additional fleets. As Matt alluded to, the customer mix will be different next year to provide more resiliency. After the acquisitions made in 2022, we maintained a similar commercial approach and entered 2023 with approximately 30% to 40% dedicated fleets. As we look into 2024, most of the fleets that we have been awarded are dedicated fleet. We're targeting approximately 75% of our fleet to be working for customers with larger programs on a dedicated basis. We've also maintained good relationships with the smaller private spot-focused operators. If we see those customers increase their activity levels, we believe we will be in a great position to deploy fleets for those customers as well. Our pumping efficiencies are best-in-class. We offer a robust portfolio of Tier 4 dual fuel and electric fleets capable of simultaneously delivering cost savings and emissions reductions for our customers, differentiating us from our peers. Matt provided our strategic plans regarding Alpine Silica at a high level. On a more granular level, we have been busy integrating the mines and getting the organizational structure aligned to achieve our objectives. Assembled a proppant commercial team, brought our third-party sales to an all-time high and have the entire organization focused on improving utilization. Last year at this time, we had two mines that we were marketing and we had limited staff focused on selling sand. With this being the first year, the Alpine is in the market for the RFP season with such a substantial logistical footprint, we expect 2024 to meaningfully improve over 2023. Today, we are actively marketing eight mines in all areas to every type of customer with a large team focused on proppant sales. We are confident that our focused effort on commercial and operational growth will meaningfully improve metrics and results. As it relates to the third quarter, sand pricing was down slightly, but discussions around 2024 suggest that it is expected to hover at current levels. Despite the lower fleet count during the third quarter, we were able to keep total volumes relatively flat. Utilization is our key priority as we've been operating below our target levels. Alpine is a proppant market leader, and next year it should illustrate the transformation with higher throughput, higher utilization, lower cost per ton, and ultimately, higher EBITDA. We believe we are well positioned to be the preferred pressure pumping proppant provider for large multi-basin operators who require service providers with equivalent scale and who have custody over the supply chain of materials. I'll now hand it over to Lance to provide more detail on our financial results.

Thank you, Ladd. As Matt mentioned, we generated $149 million in adjusted EBITDA, $73 million in free cash flow, and we reduced our net debt by approximately $123 million. . On a consolidated basis, revenue for the third quarter totaled $574 million, a sequential decrease driven primarily by the lower fleet count. Despite this, we were able to reduce costs very quickly and limit our incrementals. In addition, we brought our CapEx down considerably, enabling us to increase our EBITDA less CapEx quarter-over-quarter. Selling, general and administrative costs were $61 million in the third quarter, down $9 million from the second quarter, largely due to lower stock compensation expense as well as lower G&A spend related to the cost reductions. The Stimulation Services segment generated revenues of $490 million in the third quarter, down from the second quarter primarily due to lower fleet count. Efficiency on the fleet was up slightly and pricing was flat compared to the prior quarter. Adjusted EBITDA for the segment was $93 million compared to $123 million in the second quarter. The Proppant Production segment generated revenues of $98 million in the third quarter, down sequentially driven by lower realized pricing in the quarter. Approximately 70% of the volumes were sold to third-party customers, similar to the last quarter. Adjusted EBITDA for the Proppant Production segment totaled approximately $52 million, down from $58 million in the second quarter. The Manufacturing segment generated revenues of $44 million in the third quarter, up approximately 41% from the second quarter. Approximately 97% of this segment was intercompany revenue for products and services provided to the Stimulation Services segment. The increase in sales represents a more normalized level of fluid end sales to Stimulation Services following the second quarter where Stimulation reduced purchases and focus on utilizing inventory on hand. Adjusted EBITDA for the Manufacturing segment was $1.6 million, down from the second quarter, primarily due to product mix. As Stimulation Services exhaust it's inventory and prepares for an increase to its fleet count, and we expect the Manufacturing revenue will continue to increase. Cash capital expenditures totaled $52.6 million in the third quarter, down 46% from the second quarter. When we reduced our fleet count, CapEx usually takes more time to be reduced. Overall, we are happy with the Q3 level of spend and the actions that we have taken. We expect to incur total CapEx of approximately $280 million to $290 million for 2023. This continues to reflect the deferral of our fleet upgrade program, which we expect will be resumed at some point in 2024 at a lower level than where we started in 2023. We will remain disciplined with our capital allocation plans, and we'll remain focused on allocating capital where it can achieve the best return on investment. For next year, we believe maintenance CapEx will run approximately $3.5 million per fleet per year for the Stimulation Services segment and $2 million to $3 million per mine per year for the Proppant Production segment. As we solidify our calendar for next year, we will be defining our growth initiatives, and we'll have more to share as we develop our comprehensive CapEx plan. Operating cash flow was $123.6 million during the quarter. Working capital was reduced by approximately $27 million, while we continue to manage our receivables and payables. In addition, we remain focused on utilizing our inventory on hand, and we expect to see continued reductions for the remainder of the year, particularly as we prepare to deploy fleets. Total cash and cash equivalents as of the end of the third quarter was $25.1 million, including $4.5 million attributable to FloTek. Total liquidity at quarter end was approximately $137 million, consisting of a combination of $20.6 million in cash, excluding FloTek, and $116 million of availability under ProFrac's asset-based credit facility. Borrowings under the ABL ended the quarter at $136 million after the application of the preferred equity proceeds. At the end of the third quarter, we had approximately $1.1 billion of debt outstanding. Our primary focus in the near term remains on generating free cash flow for delevering the balance sheet and refinancing our existing debt. We again demonstrated our flexibility in the third quarter as we produced free cash flow of $73 million, which we used to pay down approximately $112 million of outstanding debt. In connection with our strategic review, we also announced that entities affiliated with our largest shareholder, the Wilks Brothers, invested $50 million in perpetual convertible preferred equity securities issued by the company which demonstrates the Wilks confidence in ProFrac. Regarding our overall capital structure, we are looking at a fleet count, pricing level and CapEx plan that will generate a meaningful amount of free cash flow to be used for debt reduction. We believe these debt reductions, combined with the improved results that we expect next year will bring our overall leverage ratio back below our target of 1x adjusted EBITDA. In addition, the steps we've taken on Alpine should make this segment a high utilization, low-cost sand operation that will also generate meaningful free cash flow. When taken together, we believe we will see 2024 EBITDA grow meaningfully higher than what was achieved in 2023. That concludes our formal remarks. Operator, please open the line for questions.

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Stephen Gengaro with Stifel.

Thanks. Good morning, everybody. I guess, two for me, please. First, can you just give us your kind of a quick update on the -- your fleet profile as far as gas burning versus non, and what are you seeing in the market as you talk about '24 RFPs as far as the preference and maybe the price bifurcation between the two types of assets.

Yes. Certainly, the majority of our fleets are fuel-efficient fleets that burn gas in some form or fashion, whether that's e-fleets or dual fuel, it's well over half of our total footprint. And with the active fleets, it's easily the majority -- the -- a super majority of our active fleet.

And then just from a pricing and demand perspective, I mean, I have been hearing -- I mean, there's a pretty big price premium for those assets? Are you seeing similar as to sort of talk to customers about next year?

There is charges associated with that capability. Ultimately, this is about creating the best value by eliminating the diesel expense. The total spend for the operator is lower on fuel-efficient fleets, and that's why these have seen the commercial success across the industry that they have.

Great. And then just as a follow-up. You mentioned sand prices were down a little bit in the quarter, and we've heard kind of mixed about spot versus contracted sand pricing. What are you seeing and thinking about for '24 as far as supply-demand fundamentals? And I know you do have a lot in certain basins. But I think you mentioned sort of stable pricing from here. But are you concerned at all about new capacity coming online in any markets?

No, we're not concerned about new capacity coming on. I think that we -- we're not really too worried about it at all. What we're looking at is that we've got 52% of our capacity committed, and we're in final discussions where we're either red lining or have verbal commitments that will take us to being completely sold out. So we like our position on the sand market, and I think that it provides a really good backdrop on how robust the services side of our segment is going to do as well. So we've got really good visibility with our broad footprint in the supply chain, and we like where that's leading us.

Our next question comes from John Daniel with Daniel Energy.

I know you mentioned a lot of like volumes are contracted for '24, but in the theme of energy security matter, have customers started coming up to talk about multiyear arrangements? Or are we a little bit early on that?

There's definitely customers that are looking for multiyear arrangements, looking to secure pricing over a longer time frame and understand that the return on capital needs to be there for any sort of the multiyear arrangement. These customers, when we meet with them, they're interested in being able to take the volatility out of the market more so than bottom-ticking the market. So let's -- they ask us to sit down with them and figure out structure that works for both sides and can take some volatility out of the overall risk profile that would be presented by a multiyear contract. So we're seeing a few situations like that. And it's leading to very constructive conversations.

Okay. That's good. And then as you look out to sort of the end of next year, a lot of optimism with respect to LNG and what the potential call on service could be in the Haynesville, places like that. I'm just curious, when do you start either rehiring or sort of preparing for what might be a ramp? I know it's a long ways out, but just how we approach that?

Yes. I mean we're looking at this demand wall that's coming from LNG export facilities, and we're really, really excited to see that there will be some relief from a captive market that's pegged to Henry Hub. And seeing access to that larger -- the larger demand centers is really encouraging. It's one of the reasons that we stuck. So we are so dedicated to staying in these gassy markets, and we'll continue to do so. We had a low in Q3 with our fleet count where we ended up in the low 20 -- low to mid-20s at one point with the Northeast falling to only a couple of fleets at one point. South Texas fell to only a few fleets and then East Texas fell to about half of our total availability that we make to that market. But we stay dedicated to that area -- each of those areas because we know what's coming. We're excited about those markets. We want our customers to know that we're dedicated to the basin, and we're not going to just cut and run whenever it gets tough. They want -- and we also have that to our workforce. And so we're really excited to have be bouncing back at this point where overall, we expect to see our fleet count in Q1 at 30 and expected to climb higher throughout Q1. So we're positioned well, and we stayed committed to these gassy markets, specifically because we see the opportunity that is presented by the increase in demand from LNG exports.

Yes, John, we -- as we lowered our fleet count, we have instead of laying off our guys, we furloughed them. And as we're ramping up into December, going into the first quarter, we're just bringing those people back from furlough. And it's looking like first and next year, we're going to start more people than the people that we furloughed.

Okay. Any issues bringing those folks back, and I'll turn it over to others.

Our next question comes from Tom Curran with Seaport Research Partners.

Could you provide us with some updated color on your clean fleet program. Specifically, how many different operators do you have active e-spreads deployed across? And then, are you still in ongoing discussions about upfront contracts to justify incremental clean fleet new builds? And what's your stance or criteria at this point for pulling the trigger on one?

Yes. So really, it just comes down to getting an agreement in place. We're not going to build anything on spec. We love these programs. They have a very good cost profile internally, especially as you compare it to a conventional fleet, but it provides tremendous savings for each customer. One of the challenges is going through and securing the [ gen sets ], which we've gone in and gone through the planning and making sure that we have what we need when we need it. And so now it's marrying up those schedules with our customers to make sure that we're not left just working with customers that have their own power. And so going in and lining up the lead times in a very tight market for power is a critical part of our growth strategy, which we hope to be able to provide an update early in 2024.

Got it. I look forward to that. And then for Alpine, Lance, can you just give us a rough idea of where utilization was that across the eight mines exiting 3Q? And then for 3Q, 4 tons sold, the split between internal consumption and third-party sales?

Yes. So on the latter, it was about 70% third-party sales with the remainder going to the ProFrac fleets. And I think when we look at utilization, we've been hovering, like Ladd mentioned below, our target probably in the 50% range, and recognize that, that really needs to kind of ramp up, and that's really one of the drivers behind getting this baseload of third-party contracts coming into next year.

And as we look at 2024, we're only seeing about 12% of our overall capacity going to ProFrac with the final negotiations, having this thing completely sold out, we like how we're positioned, and we like the backlog that we have, and knowing exactly what these mines are capable of and deploying capital appropriately to extend beyond that is something that we're very excited to be in a position to do, and to show the market, our customers and our workforce exactly what these assets are capable of.

And just given the visibility you have now, especially with the volume of third-party commitments you've put in place, how close do you think you are to that step-up in incremental margin, where you really get the big chunk of fixed cost absorption and see the surge in the incremental margin per ton sold?

So I mean when you look at these businesses, your fixed costs, I mean all of your expenses are pretty much fixed. I mean there's some variability. But essentially, there's -- we don't expect to see an increase in our expenses going forward with the higher volumes. So at this point, every incremental ton that we sell goes straight to the bottom line which is a really good spot to be in. So the -- roughly 50% utilization where we exited we are seeing a ramp-up through Q4. And as we go into 2024, that's -- we're expecting this to be completely sold out as those final discussions are underway currently, with 52% of our capacity already being committed away from ProFrac.

Got it. So just confirming, you're essentially at that threshold now, and now crossing above it. So very encouraging.

We have a follow-up from Stephen Gengaro with Stifel.

Just quickly, when you talk about 52% of your capacity, basically contracted. What capacity are you alluding to? Are you alluding to sort of total nameplate capacity or some percentage of that, that you would expect to sell next year?

Nameplate.

Okay and am I right, that's around 21 million tons?

Yes, it's right at that 21, maybe a little bit higher, but that's a good number to use.

Great. And then just one other follow-up for me. When you think about activity levels, in general next year. Can you just give us sort of your thoughts on what you're expecting as far as a potential recovery in the U.S. landfill and on the oil front, but also maybe ahead of LNG export capacity coming on stream later, what you're expecting and how you expect the gas markets to respond to that?

I'm not going to get into the macro. I just know that every time you see any sort of takeaway constraints, it has a huge impact on local markets. And so seeing an access to the global markets. And stepping away from what has largely been in a domestic commodity is always a good thing. But I'm not going to get into speculating on where global price is going to be in 2024 or in the next week. But we look at this as a very positive development that gives tremendous optionality for where the market can go and we're positioning ourselves appropriately.

Thank you. This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the floor back to management for closing comments.

We're very excited about our business. We look at putting a bottom in. And we're excited to be heading the other way. Looking forward to the coming year and very excited about each one of our subsidiaries and appropriately developing them into a very powerful business in their own right. And so we look forward to our next call, and we appreciate our stakeholders. Have a great day.