Vista Gold Corp.
$2.27
-5.0%Vista Gold Corp., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the evaluation, acquisition, exploration, and advancement of gold exploration and development projects primarily in Australia. The company's flagship asset is the Mt Todd gold project located in Northern Territory. Vista Gold Corp. was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Littleton, Colorado.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -37.9).
Valuation inputs: P/E -37.9, earnings yield N/A, momentum -5.0%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -49.6%, ROIC -61.2%).
Profitability stack: net margin 0.0%, ROE -49.6%, ROIC -61.2%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +7.2%, momentum -5.0%, net margin 0.0%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Vista Gold Corp. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Vista Gold Corp. Fair Value Envelope
Vista Gold Corp. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Vista Gold Corp. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Strong cash conversion. Most reported earnings translate into actual cash flow, suggesting solid fundamentals.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Vista Gold Corp. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Conservative capital structure. The company relies primarily on equity financing, indicating low financial risk.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Asset-light business model with high liquidity. Majority of assets are easily convertible to cash.
Financial Health Insight
Strong financial foundation: Excellent liquidity combined with conservative leverage suggests the company is well-positioned to weather economic uncertainties and fund growth opportunities.
Vista Gold Corp. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that VGZ stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 4.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 4.50 to a high of 4.50.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 4.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 4.50 to a high of 4.50.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Analyst Conviction
Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.
Market Sentiment Insight
Rare opportunity: Exceptional upside potential with strong analyst consensus creates a compelling setup. The combination of significant price target premium and tight agreement suggests high-conviction undervaluation that may attract institutional capital.
Vista Gold Corp. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $8.18M worth of VGZ shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
3-6 Months
0
0.00
1.3M
2.75M
-2.8M
-$2.75M
6-9 Months
0
0.00
2.7M
5.43M
-5.4M
-$5.43M
9-12 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Sun Valley Gold Llc
Other: Former 10% Beneficial Owner
$8.18M
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $8.18M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Insider Participation
1 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
No Dividend Yield Data
VGZ has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
vgz Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on VGZ by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.