Unusual Machines, Inc.
$30.98
-7.3%Unusual Machines, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells ultra-low latency video goggles for drone pilots. It also operates a drone-focused e-commerce marketplace. The company was formerly known as AerocarveUS Corporation and changed its name to Unusual Machines, Inc. in July 2022. Unusual Machines, Inc. was incorporated in 2019 and is based in San Juan, Puerto Rico.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -41.9).
Valuation inputs: P/E -41.9, earnings yield N/A, momentum -7.3%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -11.0%, ROIC -13.9%).
Profitability stack: net margin -1.7%, ROE -11.0%, ROIC -13.9%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +4.3%, momentum -7.3%, net margin -1.7%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Unusual Machines, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Unusual Machines, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Unusual Machines, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Moderate margins typical of competitive industries. Monitor for pricing pressure or rising costs.
Operating Margin
Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Profitability Insight
Margin squeeze alert: Healthy gross margins but weak operating margins suggest excessive operating expenses. Cost optimization could unlock significant value.
Unusual Machines, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Significant working capital drain. Growth may be consuming cash through inventory buildup or receivables extension—monitor closely.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Working capital strain: Significant cash tied up in operations. Monitor receivables collection, inventory turns, and payment terms to optimize cash conversion cycle.
Unusual Machines, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Conservative capital structure. The company relies primarily on equity financing, indicating low financial risk.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Asset-light business model with high liquidity. Majority of assets are easily convertible to cash.
Financial Health Insight
Strong financial foundation: Excellent liquidity combined with conservative leverage suggests the company is well-positioned to weather economic uncertainties and fund growth opportunities.
Unusual Machines, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that UMAC stock may experience modest gains over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 31.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 22.00 to a high of 40.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 31.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 22.00 to a high of 40.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Fair value territory. Stock trading near consensus target suggests limited near-term catalysts. Focus on fundamental developments.
Analyst Agreement
Mixed analyst views. Wide target range suggests differing opinions on key value drivers, growth prospects, or risk factors.
Risk-Reward Profile
Balanced risk-reward. Upside and downside potential relatively symmetric. Suitable for moderate risk tolerance with conviction in thesis.
Analyst Conviction
Bearish or uncertain outlook. Limited upside or poor consensus suggests challenges ahead or fundamental concerns.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
Unusual Machines, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $7.06M worth of UMAC shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
233.2K
4.36M
-4.4M
-$4.36M
3-6 Months
0
0.00
147.2K
1.33M
-1.3M
-$1.33M
6-9 Months
0
0.00
25.8K
234.13K
-234K
-$234K
9-12 Months
0
0.00
111.3K
1.12M
-1.1M
-$1.12M
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Hoff Brian Joseph
Officer: Chief Financial Officer
$4.31M
Camden Andrew Ross
Officer: President
$1.60M
Rich Sanford
Director
$786K
Wright Stacy Rochelle
Officer: Chief Revenue Officer
$255K
Colon Cristina
Director
$75K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $7.06M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
No Dividend Yield Data
UMAC has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
umac Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on UMAC by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.