Riley Exploration Permian, Inc.
$35.88
-0.43%Riley Exploration Permian, Inc., an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in Texas and New Mexico. The company's activities are primarily focused on the San Andres Formation, a shelf margin deposit on the Central Basin Platform and Northwest Shelf. Its acreage is primarily located on contiguous blocks in Yoakum County, Texas; and Lea and Roosevelt Counties, New Mexico. As of September 30, 2021, the company had approximately 31,352 net acres and a total of 77 net producing wells. Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. is headquartered in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E 4.7).
Valuation inputs: P/E 4.7, earnings yield +21.2%, momentum -0.4%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is strong (ROE +25.4%, ROIC +10.4%).
Profitability stack: net margin +41.0%, ROE +25.4%, ROIC +10.4%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile looks controlled across current risk inputs.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +45.8%, momentum -0.4%, net margin +41.0%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
Loading price and EPS data...
Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Strong gross margins indicate healthy pricing and efficient production or service delivery.
Operating Margin
Outstanding operational efficiency. The company generates substantial profit from core operations.
Net Profit Margin
Exceptional profitability. The company converts a significant portion of revenue to bottom-line earnings.
Effective Tax Rate
Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.
Profitability Insight
Exceptional profitability across all levels: Strong pricing power, efficient operations, and healthy bottom line indicate a high-quality business with sustainable competitive advantages.
Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Weak cash conversion. Significant portion of earnings not converting to cash—review working capital trends and capital intensity.
CapEx Intensity
Capital-intensive operations require significant reinvestment. Monitor whether CapEx is maintenance or growth-oriented.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Deteriorating cash generation: Both declining FCF and weak conversion rate signal fundamental challenges. Investigate margin pressure, rising costs, or working capital issues.
Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Elevated leverage. Debt exceeds equity, which amplifies both gains and risks. Monitor debt servicing ability.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Negative working capital with limited cash reserves requires immediate attention—potential liquidity crisis if not addressed promptly.
Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that REPX stock may experience modest gains over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 37.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 36.00 to a high of 38.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 37.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 36.00 to a high of 38.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Fair value territory. Stock trading near consensus target suggests limited near-term catalysts. Focus on fundamental developments.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Analyst Conviction
Neutral sentiment. Fair value pricing with moderate agreement suggests wait-and-see approach or catalyst-driven opportunity.
Market Sentiment Insight
Efficient pricing: Stock trading at fair value with strong consensus suggests market has priced in expectations. Look for fundamental inflection points or new catalysts to drive meaningful moves.
Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $790K and sold $75.26M worth of REPX shares, resulting in $74.47M of net selling activity.
3 Months
0
0.00
494.1K
16.22M
-16.2M
-$16.22M
3-6 Months
0
0.00
1.6M
47.58M
-47.6M
-$47.58M
6-9 Months
0
0.00
380.4K
10.58M
-10.6M
-$10.58M
9-12 Months
30.0K
789.90K
32.4K
875.83K
-86K
-$86K
Top Buyers
Libin Alvin Gerald
10 Percent Owner
$790K
Top Sellers
Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings Llc
10 Percent Owner
$72.89M
Riley Bobby
Director, Officer: Ceo
$1.84M
Riley Corey Neil
Officer: Cio & Cco
$316K
Arriaga Brent Alexander
Director
$207K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $74.47M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
4 insider sellers vs. 1 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
repx Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on REPX by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.