Evolution Petroleum Corporation
$4.55
+4.8%Evolution Petroleum Corporation, an oil and natural gas company, engages in the development, production, ownership, and management of oil and gas properties in the United States. The company holds interests in a CO2 enhanced oil recovery project in Louisiana's Delhi field. Its Delhi Holt-Bryant Unit covers an area of 13,636 acres located in Northeast Louisiana. The company also holds interests in the Hamilton Dome field covering 5,908 acres located in Wyoming; and Barnett Shale field covering an area of 123,777 acres located in North Texas. Evolution Petroleum Corporation was founded in 2003 and is based in Houston, Texas.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is elevated (P/E 136.2).
Valuation inputs: P/E 136.2, earnings yield +0.7%, momentum +4.8%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +2.1%, ROIC +2.4%).
Profitability stack: net margin +1.7%, ROE +2.1%, ROIC +2.4%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +55.2%, momentum +4.8%, net margin +1.7%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Evolution Petroleum Corporation Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Evolution Petroleum Corporation Fair Value Envelope
Evolution Petroleum Corporation Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Thin margins leave little room for error. Cost management and pricing strategy are critical.
Operating Margin
Minimal operating profit suggests high operating costs or pricing challenges. Scalability is concerning.
Net Profit Margin
Minimal profitability after all expenses. Limited financial flexibility for reinvestment or shareholder returns.
Effective Tax Rate
Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.
Profitability Insight
Efficient profit conversion: Minimal margin compression from gross to net indicates lean operations and favorable tax/interest environment.
Evolution Petroleum Corporation Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Exceptional cash generation: High-quality earnings converting to growing free cash flow. The company demonstrates strong pricing power, efficient operations, and disciplined capital allocation.
Evolution Petroleum Corporation Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Elevated leverage. Debt exceeds equity, which amplifies both gains and risks. Monitor debt servicing ability.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Financial stress indicators: Both liquidity and leverage metrics raise concerns. The company may face challenges meeting obligations and should focus on strengthening its balance sheet.
Evolution Petroleum Corporation Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that EPM stock may experience modest gains over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 4.90, with estimates ranging from a low of 4.50 to a high of 5.30.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 4.90, with estimates ranging from a low of 4.50 to a high of 5.30.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Moderate upside. Analysts expect positive returns but with limited margin of safety. Consider entry timing.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Risk-Reward Profile
Favorable risk-reward. Potential upside significantly exceeds downside risk, offering asymmetric return profile attractive for risk-tolerant investors.
Analyst Conviction
Positive outlook with reasonable agreement. Analysts generally optimistic about prospects with manageable uncertainty.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
Evolution Petroleum Corporation Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, there has been no insider trading activity reported for EPM.
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Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
No selling activity
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
No insider trading activity reported. This could indicate blackout periods, lack of conviction, or regulatory restrictions.
Insider Participation
No insider trading activity reported from any insiders in the past year.
epm Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on EPM by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.