Warrior Met Coal, Inc.
EnergyNYSE:HCC · New York Stock Exchange
+$4.02 today
Vol 0.31M · Avg 0.89M
Intrinsic Value
HCC Intrinsic Value
Start with the valuation result. Compare the current market price with the system DCF estimate, then use the supporting sections below to decide whether the assumptions are reasonable.
Intrinsic Value
System DCF · consensus of 4 models
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Valuation History
Is HCC cheaper or more expensive than usual?
Review how the market has valued Warrior Met Coal, Inc. over time before deciding whether today’s discount or premium is unusual.
Price History
Dividend-adjusted closing price
Change
+109.18%
Period High
$110.28
Period Low
$40.96
Latest
$98.00
Analyst Targets
See where analysts expect HCC to trade next
Compare the latest consensus target range with the current share price to understand how much upside or downside Wall Street is pricing in.
Wall Street Price Targets
1-year price history with analyst consensus target
Current
$98.00
Low Target
$105.00
Avg Target
$112.50
High Target
$120.00
Upside (Avg)
+14.80%
Alternatives to HCC
Compare Warrior Met Coal, Inc. with similar companies
A stock can look attractive in isolation and still be less compelling than a peer. Check competitors before committing to the thesis.
Competitors
Peer companies in the same sector
Enphase Energy, Inc.
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Murphy Oil Corporation
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$5.55B
Transocean Ltd.
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$5.46B
Solaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc.
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$5.34B
Core Natural Resources, Inc.
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$4.61B
Peabody Energy Corporation
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$3.33B
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P.
NASDAQ:ARLP
$3.21B
CVR Energy, Inc.
NYSE:CVI
$3.07B
Gulfport Energy Corporation
NYSE:GPOR
$2.99B
Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc.
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$2.55B
Fundamental Analysis
Capture the investment case and test company quality
Write down the key idea, risks, and what would change your mind. Then review growth, profitability, returns, owner payouts, and insider activity.
My Notes
Journal entries for HCC
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Quality Snapshot
Start with the numbers that compound value
Check whether earnings, revenue, equity, cash, and returns on capital are moving in the same direction as your written thesis.
Big Five Numbers
CAGR by period · ROIC shows average
| Metric | 10yr | 5yr | 3yr | 1yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS | N/A | N/A | N/A | -55.5% |
Revenue | N/A | N/A | +50.9% | -8.0% |
Equity | N/A | +23.5% | +13.3% | +1.9% |
Cash | N/A | N/A | +8.8% | -5.9% |
ROIC | 18.3% | 16.0% | 10.7% | 1.8% |
Analysis
Latest growth is strongest in Equity at +1.9% and weakest in EPS at -55.5%. Three-year average ROIC is 10.7%, which helps show whether that growth is being earned efficiently.
Growth Profile
Compare historical growth with forward expectations
Strong past growth matters more when analysts still expect the business to expand without relying on one temporary driver.
Growth Analysis
Historical CAGR & forward analyst estimates
| Metric | 10yr | 5yr | 3yr | Fwd Est. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | N/A | N/A | N/A | +4.8% (9yr)6 analysts |
| Revenue | N/A | N/A | +50.9% | +6.8% (9yr)5 analysts |
| Net Income | N/A | N/A | N/A | +4.8% (9yr)5 analysts |
| EBIT | N/A | N/A | N/A | +4.6% (9yr)5 analysts |
Analysis
Recent growth has been strongest in Revenue at +50.9% over three years. Forward estimates point to Revenue at +6.8% (9yr), giving you a quick check on whether expectations are accelerating or cooling.
Earnings Quality
Follow revenue through to net income
Use the waterfall to see which costs, margins, and operating lines explain how much of each sales dollar becomes profit.
Earnings Waterfall
Revenue to Net Income
Key Ratios
Analysis
$1.5B of revenue converted into $137.5M of net income for the selected period. Gross margin is 32.6% and net margin is 8.7%, showing how much revenue survives after costs and taxes. EPS is $2.62, tying the income statement back to per-share earnings.
Capital Efficiency
Measure how well Warrior Met Coal, Inc. turns capital into returns
Returns on equity, invested capital, and assets help separate durable operators from businesses that only grow by adding more capital.
Return Metrics
ROE, ROIC & ROA over time
ROE
2.7%
avg 33.4%
ROIC
1.8%
avg 13.1%
ROA
2.0%
avg 12.6%
Analysis
ROE is currently the strongest return metric at 2.7% versus its period average of 33.4%. 0 of 3 return metrics are above their quality threshold, which helps indicate how efficiently the company turns capital and assets into profit.
Owner Returns
Review how cash comes back to shareholders
Dividends, buybacks, and debt paydown show whether excess cash is being reinvested, returned, or used to strengthen the balance sheet.
Shareholder Returns
Dividend, buyback & debt paydown yields
Dividend Yield (TTM)
0.34%
Buyback Yield (TTM)
0.29%
Debt Paydown (TTM)
0.81%
Total Yield (TTM)
1.43%
Analysis
Total TTM shareholder yield is 1.43% including 0.81% from debt paydown. The largest current contributor is debt paydown at 0.81%, which helps show whether capital returns are coming from direct cash payouts, share count reduction, or balance sheet cleanup.
Dividend Record
Check payout durability before counting on yield
A dividend is more useful when growth, payout ratio, and free cash flow support the current yield.
Dividends
Dividend history, growth & yield
Yield
0.33%
Annual Div/Share
$0.32
Payout Ratio
12.6%
Frequency
Quarterly
Shareholder Yield
0.53%
Next Ex-Date
Not announced
Next Payment
—
1Y Growth
+0.0%
3Y CAGR
-33.3%
5Y CAGR
+9.9%
Dividend Payments, Annual Total (TTM) & Yield
Analysis
The current indicated dividend yield is 0.33%, with TTM dividends of $0.32 per share. Three-year dividend growth is -33.3%, which helps show whether payouts are compounding or flattening. The payout ratio is 12.6%, so compare payout growth against earnings coverage. Payments are currently quarterly.
Company Overview
Understand how Warrior Met Coal, Inc. makes money
Finish by grounding the numbers in the company profile, leadership, balance sheet, and free cash flow.
Key Information
Leadership
Put the business in management context
Company facts explain what Warrior Met Coal, Inc. does; leadership context helps you judge who is responsible for capital allocation and execution.
Management
Key executives, compensation & ownership
| Name | Title | Compensation | Tenure | Age | Shares Owned | Ownership % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Walter J. Scheller | Chief Executive Officer & Director | $3.21M | — | 65 | $9,553.00 | 0.02% |
Jack K. Richardson | Chief Operating Officer | $1.73M | — | 64 | $67,775.00 | 0.13% |
Dale W. Boyles | Chief Financial Officer | $1.51M | — | 65 | $188,391.00 | 0.36% |
Kelli K. Gant | Chief Administrative Officer & Corporate Secretary | $1.23M | — | 54 | $67,775.00 | 0.13% |
Charles Lussier | Chief Commercial Officer | $1.06M | — | 51 | $85,696.00 | 0.16% |
Phillip C. Monroe | Vice President of Legal | $829,437.00 | — | 55 | $2,211.00 | <0.01% |
Brian Chopin | Senior Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer & Controller | — | — | 43 | $24,500.00 | 0.05% |
D'Andre Wright | Vice President of External Affairs & Communications | — | — | — | — | — |
Insider Trading
SEC Form 4 transactions — last 12 months
Buys
0
$0.00
Sells
6
$14.82M
Net Sentiment
$14.82M
Net selling
Most Active
Gant Kelli K.
2 transactions
Analysis
Insiders reported 0 buys worth $0.00 and 6 sells worth $14.82M over the last 12 months. That adds up to net selling of $14.82M. Gant Kelli K. was the most active insider with 2 transactions.
Financial Position
Check what supports the company underneath the income statement
The balance sheet shows liquidity, debt, asset mix, and book value quality before you rely on earnings or growth assumptions.
Balance Sheet
Assets, liabilities & equity
| Cash & Equivalents | $202.6M |
| Short-term Investments | $30.6M |
| Receivables | $296.1M |
| Inventory | $251.5M |
| Other Current | $46.8M |
| Total Current Assets | $827.7M |
| PP&E (Net) | $1.9B |
| Tax Assets | $2.9M |
| Other Non-current | $141.5M |
| Total Non-current Assets | $2.0B |
| Total Assets | $2.8B |
Analysis
Selected assets total $2.8B for Latest. The largest visible component is PP&E (Net) at $1.9B, about 65.6% of the tab total. Use the mix to judge balance sheet concentration, liquidity, leverage, and how much of book value is supported by tangible operating assets.
Cash Generation
Finish by testing whether profit turns into cash
Free cash flow connects accounting earnings to owner earnings, showing how much cash remains after reinvestment needs.
Free Cash Flow
Net Income to FCF bridge
Analysis
Analysis will appear once cash flow data is available for this period.
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